The southern half of the NSW coast receives the full brunt of a strong round of ENE swell later this week. An upper level low over northeastern NSW and an associated surface trough lying just offshore, parallel to the North Coast, combine with a broad high pressure ridge spanning the Tasman Sea to aim a strengthening east to north-easterly fetch at the entire Eastern Seaboard from Wednesday to Friday.

A strong NE fetch develops just east of the trough on Thursday. This follows the Tasman high drifting further eastward across New Zealand, causing the broad ridge feeding into the trough to rotate anticlockwise. Give the trough is projected to hover around 100 nautical miles offshore, this wind fetch will set up within close proximity of the NSW coast and endure at near gale force strengths.

This should see a strong building trend in ENE swell throughout Wednesday, reaching a peak during Thursday and Friday.  Based on current model runs we’re likely to see solid four to six feet across Sydney and the South Coast’s exposed open beaches, with potential for larger surf through the height of this episode late Thursday/ early Friday.

Latest Wavetracker model runs show a large ENE pulse inbound across the South Coast on Thursday and Friday.

This should see a strong building trend in ENE swell throughout Wednesday, reaching a peak during Thursday and Friday.  Based on current model runs we’re likely to see solid four to six feet across Sydney and the South Coast’s exposed open beaches, with potential for larger surf through the height of this episode late Thursday/ early Friday.  

At this point Friday and Saturday are likely to see the pick of this episode, with excellent surface conditions likely on both days. As the trough weakens and drifts further offshore on Thursday night winds are likely to shift from light NNE  early on Friday to light W during the morning and potentially light NW to NE later in the day.

Likewise Saturday holds good potential for light WNW winds tending light NE during the day as ENE swell hangs in at a solid three to four feet across the region. Check Wednesday’s detailed update for more on this as the system develops.