Summary
Friday
SW groundswell 3 – 4ft the most exposed breaks early, building throughout the day to 5 – 8ft during the afternoon.  WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday
WIND: SW groundswell 5 – 6ft+ exposed breaks early, easing during the day. SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday
SW swell 4 – 5ft exposed coasts. WIND: SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Monday
SW swell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday
SW swell 2 – 4ft exposed breaks. WIND: SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday
SW swell 2 – 4ft exposed breaks. WIND: SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Forecast Overview

The immediate outlook sees another powerful round of SSW groundswell looms for Indonesian coasts over the next few days. The source is an intense polar low that developed deep beneath Madagascar last Saturday before tracking rapidly eastward across the Southern Indian Ocean,  aiming a broad swathe of SW gales at Indonesia throughout Sunday and Monday.

A solid round of SSW groundswell spreading out off the storm and is rapidly closing the distance between the source and Indonesian shores. The leading edge of the groundswell begins to touch down late on Thursday at peak intervals of 20 seconds – initially too small to have a notable impact on wave heights. However, by Friday morning the bulk of the groundswell will be moving in across all Indonesian coasts; producing solid six foot plus surf across the more exposed reefs during the afternoon and mid to large surf elsewhere;

This episode hangs in at similar levels early on Saturday before easing back from there; still a solid four to five feet across exposed reefs like Uluwatu on Sunday before scaling back a foot or so by Monday. The tail end of this episode should hang in at low to mid levels on Tuesday ahead of a small, reinforcing round of SSW groundswell filling in on Wednesday. This arises from a deep low pressure system thtat tracked poleward beneath South Africa on Sunday before merging with a new system off the Antarctic coast early this week; aiming a broad area of zonal gales our way on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The vast distance of this source from Indonesia ensures a substantial amount of this wave energy will be eroded by the time it arrives; probably generating inconsistent two to four foot sets across exposed breaks. The good news is this is likely to be a precursor to a far more substantial round of SW groundswell next weekend. The source of this episode is a deep extratropical low undergoing steady intensification beneath South Africa;

The storm is projected to sustain a compact area of gales across its northern and western flanks as it tracks steadily eastward across the southern Indian Ocean through Friday and the weekend, in turn generating a large deepwater SW swell topping out in the 30 to 40ft range beneath Madagascar. A resulting SW groundswell spreads north-eastward over the course of next week; the leading edge speculatively making landfall across Indonesian coasts during Friday 27 April ahead of the bulk of swell hitting over the weekend of Saturday 28;

This system is likely to generate four to six foot surf through the height of the swell on Saturday before gradually subsiding from there; speculatively maintaining a consistent run of low to mid range SW swell across the region into the first days of May.