Summary
Friday
SW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ at the most exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere.  WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday
WIND: SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks early, easing during the day. ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday
SSW swell 2 – 4ft exposed coasts, gradually easing. WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Monday
New SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday
SSW swell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks. WIND: SE 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday
SSW swell 4 – 6ft exposed breaks. WIND: SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Here is some footage from the last swell to hit the Bukit region...

Forecast Overview
A gradual easing trend in SW swell saw wave heights dropping back into the two foot plus range across the region into the middle of the week; marking a low point in wave energy ahead of a new building trend in SW groundswell building in by Friday morning. This new swell is linked to deep, 958 hPa polar low that set up deep beneath South Africa last Wednesday and Thursday.

The system maintained a deep belt of WSW gales across the south-western Indian Ocean late last week before gradually weakening out as it moved beneath the Kerguelen Islands last weekend. The leading edge of the subsequent SSW groundswell fills in later Thursday, ahead of the bulk of swell kicking in on Friday. This should restore wave heights to a stronger three to four feet plus across exposed breaks and hang in at similar levels on Saturday.

An easing trend in SSW swell follows into Sunday; generally easing back into the two to three foot range across exposed breaks with the odd larger set. This should mark a low point in wave energy for the region ahead of another short lived, small to mid range pulse of SSW groundswell filling in by Monday – again restoring wave heights to a stronger three to four feet across exposed breaks. The source is a deep low that set up beneath Kerguelen Island on the 1st and 2nd of May, briefly aiming a compact belt of SW gales at the Archipelago as it tracked out across the south-eastern Indian Ocean.

This short lived episode is a precursor to a stronger pulse of SSW groundswell filling in on Wednesday 9th and Thursday 10 May. This source is a broadscale extratropical low that’s already intensifying over the southern Indian Ocean. The storm system gathers momentum as it traverses eastward across the far southern Indian Ocean on Friday and Saturday; setting up a broad area of SW gales across our swell window as it goes.

The leading edge of this episode begins to fill in on Tuesday night and is likely to peak at a solid four to six foot range across exposed coasts on Wednesday before gradually easing back again during Wednesday 9 and Thursday 10 May.

Long Range
From there we have another low pressure system forecast to develop over the south-eastern Indian Ocean this weekend; establishing compact belt of SSW gales across our south swell window as it approaches Western Australian longitudes on Sunday and Monday. 

This should see a straighter S pulse arriving across the region during Friday 11, ahead of the bulk of swell peaking on Saturday 12 May. This speculatively tops out at to four to six feet across exposed coasts, but the straight southerly swell direction is likely to see large disparities in wave heights depending on an individual locations exposure.

Beyond that we may see some renewed storm activity developing beneath Madagascar around Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 May; speculatively setting up a new round of mid to large SW swell for the region into the middle of the month. This will be reviewed in next week’s update.

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