Weekend Surf Forecast 23 - 25 October 2015

22 Oct 2015 0

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Forecast issued Thursday, 22 October 2015

There are some uncanny similarities to the surf forecast no matter where you look this weekend.

If I was to tell you Friday is a write-off with strong onshore winds, but that conditions will gradually improve as the onshores become much lighter on Saturday – and then clean up entirely as winds become favourable by Sunday morning – you could pretty much take this to the surfing bank  – regardless of where you happen to live.

The entire Eastern Seaboard feels the brunt of a strong SSE flow throughout Friday responsible for a spike in SSE swell that will gradually taper off as winds back off throughout the weekend.

Likewise Victoria sees an onshore southerly flow on Friday turning light SE by Saturday – and then around to the north by Sunday. Yes, even Western Australia sees strong onshore winds on Friday tending offshore by Sunday. Wow! I hear you say – what an amazing moment in surf forecasting.

Are you ready for some aquatic madness this weekend? Photo: CW Plus member PennyKempe.

Are you ready for some aquatic madness this weekend? Photo: CW Plus member PennyKempe.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
An imminent spike in short-range SSE swell set to peak overnight Thursday is well timed for this weekend. This episode rapidly tapering off throughout Friday as south to south-easterly winds peter out, making for improving SSE swell ranging either side of 4ft across south facing breaks. By Saturday morning sees cleaner, more accessible leftover SE swell in running at a consistent 2 to 3ft – and it will be well worth making the most of these conditions while they last.

The short-range of the swell source should flow through to a short-lived episode; fading during Saturday afternoon before levelling off at a smaller 1 to 2ft on Sunday. Although there is some minor, reinforcing S swell in the mix later Sunday it’s probably not going to push too far beyond 2ft across south facing beaches.

SEE ALSO: Gerry Lopez Has A Message For You

Friday
Easing SSE swell. Sets to 3 - 5ft south facing beaches early, easing to 3 – 4ft during the morning and down to 2 – 4ft during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND:  S 20 to 30 knots early, easing and tending SSE during the afternoon.

Saturday
Leftover SE swell 2 – 3ft south facing and exposed open beaches, fading during the afternoon. WIND: Early light WSW tending light and variable, then E to NE 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Sunday
Mix of residual ESE swell and slight S swell. Sets to 1 – 2ft exposed beaches, bumping up during the afternoon. WIND: Early light NNW tending N to NE 5 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

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Conditions are set to clean up by Saturday morning as leftover SE swell hangs in at a fun size. Photo by Taylor Van Essen

Conditions are set to clean up by Saturday morning as leftover SE swell hangs in at a fun size. Photo by Taylor Van Essen

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
In the wake of this week’s consistent run of E trandewind swell the swell focus shifts to the south over the next few days. Friday marks the gradual onset of a rising SSE swell that should begin to show across northern NSW at solid, albeit windblown 2 to 4ft levels into the afternoon. This leads in a full weekend of SSE/SE swell just strong enough to produce a rideable wave across all regions. An accompanying SSE airflow will see better conditions across the points and bays on Saturday before lighter winds offer up some reasonable options across the exposed beaches on Sunday.

SEE ALSO: Monday's Rainbow Bay Drainers Will Make You Drool

Friday
S swell picks up. Around 1 – 2ft early, building to 2 - 4ft northern NSW south facing breaks during the late afternoon. Mixing with background E swell at 1 – 2ft exposed southern QLD beaches, reinforced by SSE windswell to 2ft+ later. WIND: Early light WSW to SSW near dawn tending SSW 15 to 25 knots then SSE 20 to 30 knots.

Saturday
SSE swell. 3 – 4ft+ exposed northern NSW beaches. Grading to 2 – 3ft exposed southern QLD breaks and down to a smaller 1 – 2ft elsewhere. WIND: SSE 10 to 20 knots tending lighter SE during the afternoon.

Sunday
SE swell. Around 2 – 3ft+ northern NSW coasts, grading to 1 – 2ft+ across southern Queensland WIND: Early light SSW 5 to 10 knots inshore tending ESE to ENE 10 to 15 knots during the day.

A rising SSE swell won't produce the same kind of quality seen this week, but there will be waves none-the-less. Photo: CW Plus member CurrumbinAli.

A rising SSE swell won't produce the same kind of quality seen this week, but there will be waves none-the-less. Photo: CW Plus member CurrumbinAli.

Victoria
Conditions aren’t exactly looking epic over the next few days, but the longer you wait, the better it will get. In the short term light to moderate onshore southerly winds are set to persist under the influence of a high-pressure system below South Australia maintaining a ridge across Bass Strait.

The good news is this bout of onshores will progressively ease in strength as the high migrates east, causing SE winds to fall below 10 knots by Saturday morning - so although still onshore it should be light enough to produce a half decent wave across all regions. However, if you’re looking to fine-tune your run then wait until Sunday.

Winds are set to revert to the northeast as a steady run of mid-sized SW swell favours the exposed beaches - again lending the focus to the exposed beaches all day. Winds are set to swing NNW into Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching front, making an afternoon session across the Torquay region an appealing option indeed.

SEE ALSO: Gerry Lopez Has A Message For You

Friday
Easing SSW groundswell. Sets around 5 – 6ft+ exposed beaches. Grading to 3 – 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light SSE 5 to 15 knots.

Saturday
Easing SW groundswell. Sets to 4 - 6ft exposed beaches, easing during the day. Grading to 2 - 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light SSE 5 to 10 knots, tending to seabreezes during the afternoon.

Sunday
Mid period SSW swell. Around 3 – 5ft exposed beaches. Grading to 2 - 3ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: NNE 5 to 15 knots tending NNW during the afternoon.

Onshore winds are set to fade on Saturday before swinging to the north on Sunday, producing two full days of surfable conditions state-wide. Photo: CW Plus member PennyKempe.

Onshore winds are set to fade on Saturday before swinging to the north on Sunday, producing two full days of surfable conditions state-wide. Photo: CW Plus member PennyKempe.

Western Australia
It’s shaping up as a pretty good weekend to be trawling an exposed stretch of South-West coast in search of a wave this weekend.

Although Friday is pretty much written off by strong onshore SSW winds, a steady improvement in local conditions follows throughout the weekend as winds swing around from SSE on Saturday to E by Sunday. This coincides with a slow easing trend in SW swell offering up solid mid-range conditions to begin with, before subsiding to more user-friendly levels by Sunday.

SEE ALSO: Pipe, Teahupoo, The Wedge & The Mighty Mike Stewart

Friday
SW swell slightly increases with mild W windswell. Southwest coast: textured 3-4ft with occasional 5ft sets. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft rising chop. W wind 10-15kt early, tending WSW in afternoon.

Saturday
WSW swell. Southwest coast: 3-4ft decreasing in afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft+ fading by midmorning. Variable S wind 5-10kts, shifting SE to SW through the day.

Sunday
SW swell eases. Southwest coast: 2-3ft+. Perth/Mandurah: flat inconsistently better. SE wind early 10kt, tending light and variable in afternoon.

Conditions should look a little like this once winds shift to the east on Sunday. Photo: CW Plus member MaluaMatt.

Conditions should look a little like this once winds shift to the east on Sunday. Photo: CW Plus member MaluaMatt.

South Australia
The windows of surfing opportunity are wide open this weekend. A slow easing trend in SW swell continues to deliver fun-sized surf to southern exposures as a favourable NNE wind-regime prevails – maintaining clean 3 to 4ft sets for most of Saturday before it scales down a foot or so by Sunday morning. It’s well worth slaking your surfing thirst throughout this period before a freshening south-westerly change rears up during Sunday afternoon.

SEE ALSO: Fight For The Great Australian Bite

Friday
Mid to long period SSW swell. 3-4ft+ across the exposed beaches. Grading to 1ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: E 10-15 knots tending ESE 5-10 knots.

Saturday
Mid period SSW swell. 3-4ft across the exposed South Coast beaches. Grading to 1ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: NNE 10-15 knots tending N 10-15 knots.

Sunday
Mid period SW swell. 2-3ft+ across the exposed South Coast beaches. Grading to near flat along the Mid Coast. WIND: Early NNE tending WSW to SSW 15-20 knots during the afternoon.

There's ample opportunity to get amongst it this weekend. Photo: CW Plus member JamesHayers.

There's ample opportunity to get amongst it this weekend. Photo: CW Plus member JamesHayers.

Tags: weekend , forecast , australia , macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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