Weekend Surf Forecast 12 - 14 February, 2016

11 Feb 2016 0

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

FORECAST | Weekend Surf Forecast

Forecast issued Thursday, 11 February 2016

When you start comparing the calibre of swells Hawaii receives at this time of year – particularly during this big El Nino year - with your average swell-event unfolding anywhere around Australia’s vast coastline - it’s not unreasonable to feel like you’re eating humble pie. While Hawaii’s well-documented run of huge, epic swell-events continues, we must content ourselves (literally) with comparatively down to earth swell-events that only seldom push beyond double overhead. And you know what? There’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, I can’t see myself entering the water if it’s 40ft @ 20 seconds – and quite frankly, I’m feeling pretty amped by the prospect of several days of mid-sized easterly groundswell – arriving compliments of two new tropical cyclones currently spinning up over the Coral Sea.

DON'T FORGET! Reelers 2016 entries close on Monday! Get shooting and editing this weekend. FIND OUT MORE...

Another balmy summer weekend sees mostly small rideable waves around the continent. Photo: CW Plus member Mattibbey.

Another balmy summer weekend sees mostly small rideable waves around the continent. Photo: CW Plus member Mattibbey.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
A diminishing easterly swell coupled with early light winds makes for fairly placid conditions all weekend. By Saturday morning the tail end of the current round of E swell should be down to a pretty slow 2ft across exposed beaches – and it’ll continue to lose size and consistency as the day progresses. So with early light winds in place it’s probably worth making the most of what’s on offer on Saturday morning. By Sunday residual E swell should still be lingering at 1 to 2ft and the arrival of a southerly change mid to late morning will leave little to be desired into the afternoon. If that doesn’t float your boat, then you’ll have to hang out new easterly swell begins to arrive over the course of next week.

Friday
Get in early before the nor’easter. Leftover E swell 1 – 3ft exposed breaks early, fading later. WIND: Early light and variable to NNW tending NE and freshening to 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
A bit of fun early, deteriorating later. E swell. Slow sets around 2ft early, mixing with short-range NE windswell at 1 – 2ft+ during the afternoon. WIND: Early light N tending NE and freshening to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Sunday
Small and clean ahead of a S change. ENE swell. Around 1 - 2ft exposed beaches, early, superseded by S windswell rising towards a choppy 1 – 3ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light NNW ahead of a SSE change 10 to 20 knots during the morning.

SEE ALSO: The Summer Of Chasing Cyclone Swells

Small = fun across the NSW coast as low-scale E swell gradually fades. Photo: CW Plus member Joaodecarvalho.

Small = fun across the NSW coast as low-scale E swell gradually fades. Photo: CW Plus member Joaodecarvalho.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
The good times keep rolling this weekend as one ESE swell overlaps with another. The presence of a moderate to strong easterly fetch situated within relatively close range of the coast continues to supply the region with consistent, mid-range surf exhibiting shorter peak periods of 8 to 9 seconds. This should continue to see set waves ranging from 2 to 4ft across the region on Friday and Saturday before wave energy scales back a notch by Sunday. The good news is there’s more E swell stacking up beyond the horizon, with a new swell-event of tropical origins already getting underway over the Coral Sea.

Friday
Pretty good everywhere you look. ESE swell. Sets to 3 – 4ft exposed northern NSW beaches, grading to 2 – 3ft exposed Queensland breaks and smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light SSW, tending SSE 10 to 15 knots during the morning.

Saturday
Groundhog day. ESE windswell around 3 - 4ft+ northern NSW exposed breaks, grading to 2 – 3ft+ southern exposed QLD breaks and smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: Early inshore SSW tending SSE 10 to 20 knots during the day.

Sunday
Smaller, but still fun. E windswell. Around 2 – 3ft+ northern NSW exposed beaches, grading to 2 - 3ft across exposed Queensland coasts. WIND: Early light WSW to SSW tending light NE during the afternoon.

SEE ALSO: The Best Perspective (Of Surfing)

The good times are set to keep rolling across southern Queensland and northern NSW - not just this weekend, but for most of next week to boot. Photo: CW

The good times are set to keep rolling across southern Queensland and northern NSW - not just this weekend, but for most of next week to boot. Photo: CW

Victoria
It may not be shaping up as an epic weekend of waves across Victoria, but there’s no shortage of rideable surf on tap just about everywhere you look. Friday sees light onshore winds taking the shine off a modest SW swell, but by Saturday morning we should be looking at a short window of clean conditions. An early light NNW flow precedes a gradual shift to the W and WSW mid morning, so getting in before winds swing onshore will be paramount across the exposed beaches. Sunday sees a continuation of moderate onshore winds making for fairly unappealing conditions across exposed beaches all day, so it may well be worth your while targeting the Torquay region for something more manageable.

Friday
So-so. SW swell. Around 2 – 4ft exposed beaches early, rebuilding to 3 – 4ft during the afternoon. Grading to 2ft+ across the Surf Coast. WIND: SE/ESE 5 to 15 knots, freshening during the afternoon.

Saturday
Excellent early, deteriorating into the arvo. SW swell. Around 3 – 4ft exposed beaches, picking up during the afternoon. Grading to 2ft or so across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light NNW tending W to SW 10 to 15 knots during the morning, then freshening to 15 to 20 knots later.

Sunday
Lumpy, bumpy and chunky. SW swell. Sets to 3 – 4ft early across exposed coasts, building to 4 – 5ft+ during the afternoon. Around 1 – 2ft+ across the Surf Coast, building towards 2 – 3ft later. WIND: WSW 10 to 20 knots tending SW later.

SEE ALSO: DBah's Mid Week Surprise

Get in early on Saturday to capitalise on a brief period of northerly winds. Photo: CW Plus member Millarkat.

Get in early on Saturday to capitalise on a brief period of northerly winds. Photo: CW Plus member Millarkat.

Western Australia
The longer you hold off, the better it’s going to get this weekend. Friday sees a pretty forgettable combination of low scale SW swell and strong southerly winds preceding an upswing in SW swell on Saturday under strong SSE winds. If this doesn’t cut the mustard either, then wait until Sunday morning. Solid, mid-range SW swell combines with offshore ESE winds to produce the highlight of the weekend. It will be worth making the most of conditions throughout the morning before winds tend to the south into the afternoon.

Friday
A bit iffy. Smaller mid period SW swell under moderate S'ly winds. Southwest coast: 2-3ft+. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft. 15-20kts S'ly winds tending 20kt SSW.

Saturday
Half decent. Rising SW swell under moderate SSE winds early. Southwest coast: 3-4ft+, rising with 6ft sets in the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft+, 2ft sets later. 10-20kt SSE winds tending S'ly 20kts.

Sunday
Drop everything and go surfing. Peak in new SW swell under cleaner ESE winds. Southwest coast: 3-5ft with possible bigger sets early. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft. ESE wind 15-20kts tending 20kts SSE.

SEE ALSO: What's In Tom Carroll's Quiver For The Eddie? 

If this is what you're after you'll probably have to hang out until Sunday morning. Photo: CW Plus member Asher Semels Photography.

If this is what you're after you'll probably have to hang out until Sunday morning. Photo: CW Plus member Asher Semels Photography.

South Australia
Persistent onshore winds remain the bane of every South Australian surfers existence this weekend. Although not overly strong, light to moderate southerly quarter winds are forecast to set in during Saturday and persist throughout Sunday – invariably putting a dampener on a slow building trend in SW swell. Still, Saturday morning does present the one and only opportunity to get amongst some clean conditions before the onshore sets in.

Friday
Light onshore texture all day: SSW swell 1 - 3ft across the exposed South Coast beaches, bumping up during the afternoon. Grading to flat across the Mid Coast. WIND: SE to SW 5 to 15 knots.

Saturday
Clean early, turning to mush later: SSW swell. Up to 2 - 3ft along exposed beaches. Grading to 0.5ft along the Mid Coast WIND: Early light WNW 5 to 10 knots tending SW 10 to 15 knots later.

Sunday
Lumpy onshore chunks: Rising SSW groundswell around 2 - 3ft+ along exposed South Coast beaches, picking up to 3 – 4ft. Grading to 0.5 to 1ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: SW 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday morning may offer a few diamonds in the rough across exposed South Australian coasts. Photo: CW Plus member Dan Colley.

Saturday morning may offer a few diamonds in the rough across exposed South Australian coasts. Photo: CW Plus member Dan Colley.







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