Forecaster Blog: A Tasman Low Sends Swell For Days

4 Oct 2017 3

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | FORECASTER BLOG

Issued Wednesday, 4 October 2017

As I write this, I’m rubbing my metaphorical hands together in anticipation. Actually, if I was using speech recognition software instead of typing, I would  be literally rubbing them together.

The forecast development of a slow-moving Tasman low presents excellent surf-potential for the entire East Coast – both over the weekend and early to mid next week. The low is set to gradually develop over Tasmania and Bass Strait on Thursday before intensifying just east of the region early on Friday. Still in its infancy, the low sets up a 30 to 35kt S to SW fetch that will see a late spike in S windswell across the South Coast on Friday afternoon, leading in a more substantial push in mid-period S swell into the 4 to 6ft plus range across Sydney and locations north on Saturday.

The impending development of a Tasman low sees pumping SSE swell and early offshore winds for several days across the East Coast. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Jack Gore.

The impending development of a Tasman low sees pumping SSE swell and early offshore winds for several days across the East Coast. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Jack Gore.

With strong SSW winds accompanying this initial increase, it’s fair to say the surf will be large and consistent, but not exactly worthy of a letter home to the folks. It’s not until Sunday that things start to get interesting. As the low drifts out across the southern Taman on Saturday it maintains a broad area of southerly quarter gales across its western flank; supported from the west by a 1024hPa high positioned over Tasmania.

Latet Wave Tracker runs depict the wind-field generated by the low as it drifts eastward early on Saturday. Pumping SSE swell follows on Sunday and Monday.

Latet Wave Tracker runs depict the wind-field generated by the low as it drifts eastward early on Saturday. Pumping SSE swell follows on Sunday and Monday.

It’s this secondary phase in the low’s lifecycle that holds far more promise for the coast on Sunday and Monday. Expect strong lines of mid period SSE swell fanned by light westerlies on Sunday morning, producing large, clean surf until winds swing NE and freshen during the afternoon.

Model consensus points to similarly good to excellent conditions on Monday. As the low slowly weakens and remain slow moving west of New Zealand on Sunday it will continue to support a lower-strength, but still broad SE to ESE fetch across its south-western quadrant; thereby supplying the Eastern Seaboard with still a slow easing SE groundswell on Monday morning; potentiall still running at 3 to 4ft plus across the more exposed breaks under offshore winds – again giving way to nor’easters as the swell backs off into the afternoon. If all that isn’t enough to slake your surfing thirst, the good news is you’ll still be able to drink from the salty cup on Tuesday as smaller SE leftovers are superseded by yet another strong round of S swell. Stay tuned for more on this as the week progresses.

Tags: ben , macartney , forecaster , blog (create Alert from these tags)

blog comments powered by Disqus
Features
Nick Carroll On: The Bloody Obvious

Nick Carroll On: The Bloody Obvious

It’s time councils and States stopped playing this silly game

22 20 Oct 2017
Best Of Weak Wrap: The Aussie Vs. Brazilian Rivalry Intensifies

Best Of Weak Wrap: The Aussie Vs. Brazilian Rivalry Intensifies

Plus Exclusive unseen footage of Kelly’s wave pool

2 20 Oct 2017
Weekend Surf Forecast 20 - 22 October 2017

Weekend Surf Forecast 20 - 22 October 2017

Planning to brave the aquatic elements this weekend?

0 19 Oct 2017
Recent

Who Is The Biggest Self-Proclaimed Over-Achiever In Surfing?

Lipped, The Surfer's Podcast

0 19 Oct 2017
What In The Heck Actually Is An Ambassador of Stoke?

What In The Heck Actually Is An Ambassador of Stoke?

0 19 Oct 2017
Sean Doherty On: As World's Divide

Sean Doherty On: As World's Divide

2 18 Oct 2017
Help Save Our Oceans & Score The Trip Of A Lifetime With Barton Lynch

Help Save Our Oceans & Score The Trip Of A Lifetime With Barton Lynch

0 17 Oct 2017
Scary Good Tour Kicks Off With USA Premiere

Scary Good Tour Kicks Off With USA Premiere

0 17 Oct 2017
Latest News

What In The Heck Actually Is An Ambassador of Stoke?

The Dooley podcast tackles the small questions

Sean Doherty On: As World's Divide

Disappearance into the Mentawaiian jungles

Scary Good Tour Kicks Off With USA Premiere

The new movie from Surfing World hits Costa Mesa.

Popular This Week

Nick Carroll On: It's All Happening Again – Another Dead Whale Buried

Another surf community has to worry about a dead whale and a council

Is This The Best That Kirra Can Be?

Featuring Kelly, Mick and friends

Go to Top