Dialling In: Thurs, 3 December 2009.

3 Dec 2009 0

The nearshore SWAN model for south-western Australia picks up a new pulse of two to three metre SW swell filling in on Saturday.

The nearshore SWAN model for south-western Australia picks up a new pulse of two to three metre SW swell filling in on Saturday.

Where’s pumping around Australia this weekend

Average conditions prevail across all states
Not unlike last weekend, there’s no major weather system’s ringing any surfing bells anywhere around Australia this weekend. Typically, Western Australia’s south-west coast probably holds the best potential.

A small to mid range SW swell is greeted by S/SE winds, both on Saturday morning and Sunday morning, sustained by a new high pressure ridge filling in from the west and a slow moving surface trough lingers over the coast. Expect fun, clean surf across the region’s fully exposed coasts as the region’s plethora of quality reef breaks hold three to four foot sets, deteriorating into the afternoon as a SSW seabreeze sets in;

Source NOAA; WW3 Picks up the leading edge of a mid range, 11 to 12 second pulse of SW swell arriving across the south-west coast early on Saturday.

Source NOAA; WW3 Picks up the leading edge of a mid range, 11 to 12 second pulse of SW swell arriving across the south-west coast early on Saturday.

The swell should hang in about a foot smaller on Sunday under similar SE winds throughout the morning, probably strengthening as the high pressure ridge firms up across the south-west of the state;

BOM 4 Day
Source: BOM. A high pressure ridge building across the south-west of the state drives a moderate to strong S/SE flow across the region over the weekend.

The swell source is a complex frontal low moving along an already highly active storm track affecting the south-eastern Indian Ocean. The low briefly set up a belt of low end WSW gales across our swell window on Wednesday. The fetch blew across an already active sea state to generate a mid range pulse of swell in the eleven to twelve second band; this is due to make landfall across south-western Australia during the early hours of Saturday morning;

Source; BOM LAPS. The low  set up off New Zealand on Tuesday, directing a compact SE fetch our way through to Wednesday morning.

Source; BOM LAPS. The low set up off New Zealand on Tuesday, directing a compact SE fetch our way through to Wednesday morning.

For more details check the West Australian forecast here.

Low scale S and residual SE swell across the NSW Coast
In the wake of Tuesday and Wednesday’s powerful S/SE swell there’s not a lot to get excited about across NSW this weekend. An easing trend in SE swell sees smaller two to three foot waves on Friday dropping out to lower one to two foot levels by Saturday morning.

The small swell is compounded by a moderate onshore, E/SE flow developing as a low pressure trough crosses the coast, leading in a ridge of high pressure filling in across the Tasman on Sunday.

Nice little pulse of ESE swell on Sunday

Hence conditions will be far from ideal on Saturday, but conditions are likely to be better on Sunday. A final pulse of ESE swell is projected to push wave heights back up into the two to three foot range across the more exposed open coasts.

The swell is a last hurrah from the same low pressure responsible for this week’s swell. The substantially weakened low set up off New Zealand’s South Island on Monday night and hovered there throughout Tuesday as a high pressure ridge began to cradle it along its south-western flank;

This satellite derived image shows a strong SSE fetch extending out into the Southern Ocean off the south-western corner of New Zealand’s South Island. A small, two to three foot pulse of SE swell follows across the NSW coast on Sunday in the 10 second band.

This satellite derived image shows a strong SSE fetch extending out into the Southern Ocean off the south-western corner of New Zealand’s South Island. A small, two to three foot pulse of SE swell follows across the NSW coast on Sunday in the 10 second band.

A subsequent, strong S/SE fetch approaching near gale force developed off the south-western corner of the South Island; a compact fetch remaining well aligned with the East Coast on Wednesday;

Winds wont’ be ideal on Sunday, with early light E/NE winds prevailing under the influence of a high pressure system filling out into the Tasman. Winds are set to strengthen out of the NE into the afternoon so it’s probably worth getting amongst it earlier rather than later;

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