Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 7 - 21 October 2014
Surf Forecast issued 2.00pm, Tuesday, 7 October 2014. By Chief Swell Forecaster Ben Macartney.
Presented by Garuda Indonesia
A full week of mid range SSW groundswell fluctuates between 3 and 5ft across exposed breaks, with a peak of 4 to 6ft anticipated on Thursday. This episode tapers off through Friday and the weekend preceding the arrival of a larger, long period SSW groundswell on Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th October.
SSW swell. Sets to 3 – 5ft exposed breaks, bumping up during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 15 knots.
SSW swell. Sets to 4 - 6ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 to 15 knots.
SSW swell Sets to 3 - 4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure . WIND: Early light and variable tending SW to SE 5 to 10 knots.
SSW swell. 2 – 4ft exposed breaks, easing towards 2 – 3ft during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 to 10 knots.
SSW groundswell. 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: SSE 5 to 15 knots.
New SSW groundswell 5 – 6ft+ exposed breaks, rising to 6 – 8ft. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots.
The change of season became apparent this week as the winter tradewinds began to peter out; giving way to mostly variable winds suited to East and south facing breaks. This trend continues into mid October as a much lighter wind-regime coincides with mid range surf; predominantly comprised of mid period SSW swell in the 12 to 13 second band. The immediate outlook has a modest building trend setting in on Wednesday as mid range SSW swell goes from 4ft or so to a larger, interim peak of 4 to 6ft on Thursday.
This episode follows the passage of a pair of mid strength storm systems that combined to form a larger low complex over the south-eastern Indian Ocean early to mid last week. This relatively modest storm activity continued last Thursday and Friday as a series of polar fronts supported a low-end gale force SW fetch over the region – just strong enough to maintain a slow easing trend in SSW swell into Friday and the weekend.
This fairly standard activity precedes the arrival of a more significant, long period SSW groundswell; the leading edge of which should be visible early on Sunday 12th October. This impending activity commenced with the evolution of an intense polar low, far below South Africa over the last few of days. The system gave rise to heavy seas and swell below the 50S parallel, south of Madagascar on Monday; large enough to send a small, long-distance pulse of high period SSW groundswell our way. Although the vast distance travelled by this swell coupled with the relatively small dimensions of the storm appear likely to preclude any major rise in surf heights as this swell makes landfall on Sunday, it’s the further evolution of the system that holds significant swell potential leading into the first half of next week.
Recent computer modelling picks up a large, complex storm system evolving over the far south-eastern Indian Ocean from Wednesday to Friday; large enough to sustain a vast, gale force WSW fetch as traverses the south-eastern Indian Ocean. Although confined to polar latitudes, the system should drive maximum significant wave heights to a peak of 30 to 40ft below the Archipelago on Thursday; giving rise to a solid, long period SSW groundswell filling in from 200 to 210 degrees on Monday and Tuesday. This holds potential for a peak in groundswell in the 6 to 8ft plus range across exposed breaks late Monday 13th/ early Tuesday 14th October.
The tail end of this episode should maintain still solid 4 to 6ft surf on Wednesday 15th ahead of a further decline by Thursday 16th; speculatively marking a low point in wave energy ahead of a new, mid range SW groundswell filling in during Thursday 16th and Friday 17th. This is linked to rejuvenated storm activity forecast to develop below South Africa and Madagascar later this week and over the weekend. This looms as more typically spring activity; characterised by smaller-scale storms only capable of mid range surf peaking in the 3 to 5ft range.
The transition to the wet season is underway, but that doesn't preclude large SSW groundswell arriving across Indonesia through late October.
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