Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 5 - 15 October, 2016
Where has everyone gone? That’s the question surfers ask when they turn up at suddenly uncrowded breaks throughout Indonesia in October. With the peak-season crowds having come and gone, this month offers up a great opportunity for uncrowded perfection throughout The Archipelago. With a much lighter wind-regime now in place across the region, expect consecutive days of small to mid-sized surf, with glassy to slightly textured surface quality, producing full days of surfable conditions across all exposed breaks.
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A series of small to mid-range SSW swells maintain fun-sized surf throughout Indonesia; mostly ranging from 2 to 4ft across exposed breaks into the middle of October. Expect a pattern of early light and variable winds tending to light SE/SSE during the afternoons throughout the outlook period.
Easing SSW groundswell. Sets around 3 - 4ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 to 10 knots.
Leftover SSW swell. Ranging from 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, easing later. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.
Small-scale SSW swell. Ranging from 1 – 3ft exposed breaks, inconsistent in the upper range. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE to SSE 5 to 10 knots.
New SSW groundswell. Sets to 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, easing later. New SSW groundswell bumps up during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable.
SSW groundswell. Around 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 to 10 knots.
Small-scale SSW swell. Sets to 2 – 3ft exposed breaks, possibly bumping up during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE around 10 knots.
A solid round of SSW groundswell lit up the Archipelago on Monday before easing to more accessible levels by Tuesday; still ranging from 4 to 6ft across the more exposed breaks under light and variable winds. A continued easing trend in SSW follows throughout the remainder of the working week; initially still hanging in around the 3 to 4ft mark on Wednesday before scaling down another notch into the 2 to 3ft range by Thursday. Friday then marks an interim low-point in wave energy; hovering around 2ft across exposed breaks preceding the onset of a new, fairly modest pulse of SSW groundswell this weekend.
The origin is a large, complex polar low that migrated across the far southern Indian Ocean over the weekend, setting up an expansive, zonal (westerly) fetch throughout latitudes bounded by 40S and 55S. Although associated wind-speeds were mostly clocked at 30 to 35 knots, the extended duration of these winds was enough to produce a respectable pulse of mid-period SSW groundswell. The leading edge of this energy begins to show at low-levels on Friday ahead of the bulk of swell arriving on Saturday and Sunday. This should see surf ranging either side of 3ft across exposed breaks on both days, with slightly smaller leftovers still running in the 2 to 3ft range on Monday.
Tuesday then marks the arrival of a new round of reinforcing SSW swell – again exhibiting modest heights and relatively short peak periods in the 12 to 14 second band. This arises from a new polar low forecast to develop south-west of the Kerguelen Islands over the next few days. The low initially establishes a modest WSW fetch in conjunction with a high pressure system anchored south of Madagascar on Wednesday, before setting up a more substantial SSW fetch as it feeds into a broader low pressure complex on the verge of Western Australian longitudes. This will see a broader area of SSW winds aligning directly with Indonesia on Thursday and Friday, giving rise to a mid-period SSW pulse; speculatively peaking in the 3 to 5ft range across exposed breaks on Tuesday 11 and Wednesday 12 October.
Beyond that, longer-range computer modelling picks up renewed storm-activity becoming established across the south-western Indian Ocean this weekend. This features a series of vigorous polar fronts migrating below South Africa and Madagascar; variously generating a series of small to mid-sized pulses of SW groundswell for Indonesian coasts between 15 and 20 October. At this early stage the specifics on these pulses are still unclear, so check back next week for clarification.
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