Weekend Surf Forecast 6 - 8 January 2016
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Forecast issued Thursday, 5 January 2017 by Katie Jackson
Is your new year’s resolution to surf more? Well depending on conditions in your area, this may be an easy or a hard task.
Persistent onshores will plague the East coast, but rising wave heights will bump up wave size with renewed E swell this weekend. Across Victoria and SA, offshore winds will pre-sent small yet respectively clean conditions with minor W to SW swell. The largest waves will by far be in WA as a low-pressure system will hit the southwest Friday (as seen in the Coastalwatch Wave Tracker image above). Increased SW swell peaks with poor conditions before the storm clears and settles in the Bight Saturday and Sunday.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
Small and onshore seems to be the general trend through the weekend. Surf is dominated by a run of low-level E swell stemming from a broad high-pressure system that extends into the central Tasman. Moderate E trade winds set up a fairly straight fetch and this presents a steady run of low level 1 to 2ft waves through Saturday, before some local NE windswell will also mix in crumbly 1 to 3ft waves Sunday. Under the influence of this high, expect textured conditions.
Straight and small. Minor E swell. Around 1 - 2ft exposed open breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early NE to 10 knots, tending E 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Average E waves early before NE winds. E swell with possible NE texture late. 1 – 2ft+ open exposures with NE wind bump during the afternoon. Grading smaller in bays and points. WIND: Light and variable to 10 knots early, building NE 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Crumbly swell mix. E and NE swell. 1 – 3ft open and exposed breaks, tending smaller in protected areas. Increasing windwaves during the afternoon. WIND: N 5 to 10 knots early, increasing during the day NE 15 to 20 knots.
An E tradewind belt will strengthen this weekend, rising E swell heights a notch or two through Saturday afternoon and Sunday. We have a tropical trough deepening across the northern to central Tasman and this interacts with a stable high-pressure system to our east. Friday holds much of the same but we should see a more steady band of 2-3ft E swell conditions Saturday, potentially rising 2-4ft range on open breaks into early Sunday. Winds again will need to be taken into consideration as wave shape will likely be deteriorated by onshore texture.
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Crumbly and straight. ESE swell tending E. Ranging 1 – 3ft exposed breaks, grading small-er inside the points and bays. WIND: Early SE to 10 knots, tending E 10 to 15 knots.
Rising but onshore. Building 2 - 3ft exposed breaks, more so during the afternoon with in-creasing texture. Grading smaller in protected bays and points. WIND: Early E 10 knots, rising 15 to 25 knots in afternoon.
Pulse up of size but onshore wind. Increased E swell. Ranging from 2 – 4ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller 2ft range in protected bays and points. WIND: Early ESE 10 knots, increasing E 15 to 20 knots.
Expect a continued run of small-scale surf and clean mornings. Residual SW swell shows for the weekend and a small low pressure system in the high latitudes of the bight will present a westerly fetch. The initial swell will be very largely shadowed for the region due to the westerly swell angle, as well as small, so don't expect much, but open areas capturing the refracted sets could offer a small pulse in size with more surf building Sunday. For conditions, the front should dissipate before crossing Victoria and we should light offshore morning winds and generally fair conditions.
Small leftovers. Residual SW swell with minor W swell. Inconsistent sets 1 to 2ft across exposed beaches with lulls. Grading flat across the Surf Coast. WIND: Calm early, tending to mild seabreeze in afternoon.
Inconsistent small W sets. Around 1 – 2ft exposed coasts. Grading to flat across the Surf Coast. WIND: E 5 knots tending NE 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
WSW swell wrap. Minor rise of WSW sets. Top exposed coasts around 1 - 3ft with slight swell angle rotation helping during the afternoon. Grading to 1ft or less across the Surf Coast. WIND: Calm early tending W to SW and rising 10 to 15 knots in afternoon.
WA is the exception this weekend and an unseasonal push of stormy SW swell shows building wave heights on Friday. A mix of short to mid period SW swells fill into the southwest but winds show a strong SW texture Friday, meaning protected bays and points will need to be sought out. Look for improvement through the weekend as a developing ridge of high pressure sets up across the south of the state bringing with it improving wind conditions. SW swell will be dropping out steadily through Saturday and Sunday, while conditions help to shape up the fading swell and offer fair to good conditions.
Peak in solid SW swell under fresh onshore. Southwest coast: 6-8ft early, rising stormy 8-10ft. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft+, larger sets later. WIND: SW at 20-30kts, easing 20kts SSW.
Easing mid period SW swell. Light morning SSE winds. Southwest coast: 4-6ft, easing. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft, easing. WIND: SSE at 10-15kts freshening SSW 20kts.
Old SW swell bottoms out. Reinforced SW swell overlaps. Southwest coast: 2-4ft, 5ft sets late. Perth/Mandurah: 1 - 1.5ft. WIND: SE at 10-15kts shifting 15-20kts SSW.
Surface conditions look good across the south coast Friday as a large high-pressure system sets in. This is followed by a low-pressure system in the Bight that will rotate winds from the north to west through Saturday and Sunday. Offshore winds across the south coast continue clean, fun sized surf with the exposed beaches of Goolwa, Waitpinga and Parsons offering the best of it. Look for potential of a rising mid-period WSW swell Sunday as the low pressure passes south of the region.
Clean but tiny. Small SSE wind swell, SW swell mix. 1 - 2ft, with 3ft sets at exposed South Coast beaches. Flat across the Mid Coast. WIND: ENE 10kts, tending NE 10 to 15kts.
Small SW swell. 1 - 2ft with 3ft sets at exposed South Coast beaches. Grading near flat across the Mid Coast. WIND: NNE 10 to 20 knots tending variable before a WSW change late afternoon.
Rising WSW swell. 1-2ft+ South Coast, rising late. Grading 1-1.5ft, rising 2ft+ across the Mid Coast. WIND: SW 10 to 15 knots, easing 10kts.
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