Surf Forecast - Mid Coast New South Wales

Mid Coast

Surf Forecast updated 1.30pm Friday, 17 May 2013. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast
Saturday
S swell fills in and increases from extreme southerly direction, producing varying wave heights from exposed breaks to protected regions. 3 – 4ft south facing breaks, grading to 2 - 3ft along less exposed stretches. Up to a larger 4 – 5ft across Newcastle and the Hunter coasts. Easing during the afternoon. WIND: WSW 5 - 10 knots early tending SW during the afternoon

Sunday
S swell continues to produce varying wave heights. Up to 2 – 4ft Mid North Coast coast south facing beaches , grading to 3 - 5ft across Newcastle and the Hunter areas. Tending smaller 1 – 3ft across the majority of east facing beaches. WIND: WSW 5 - 15 knots tending SW during the afternoon.

Monday
New pulse of mid period S swell. Probably 2 – 3ft early increasing to a solid 3 - 4ft south facing breaks during the afternoon, with scope for larger surf depending on how low develops. Expect smaller 2 – 3ft surf across east facing beaches. WIND: WSW winds 5 - 15 knots tending light SSW during the afternoon.

Tuesday
SSE swell around 3 - 4ft across south facing beaches, grading to 2 - 3ft open beaches. Gradually easing during the day. WIND: Early WSW 5 to 15 knots tending light and variable during the day.

Wednesday
Leftover SSE swell. Inconsistent 2 - 3ft max south facing beaches, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: WSW 5 to 10 knots, tending WNW into the afternoon.

For in-depth analysis read the Detailed Surf Forecast

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Recap
This week’s run of near flat conditions finally began to give way to a new south swell on Friday morning; only amounting to one to two feet max across south facing coasts and mostly lapping the shoreline across the majority of open beaches - but never the less marking the start of a sustained run of S swell affecting the region this weekend.

Forecast Overview
The immediate outlook sees fun sized south swell filling in overnight following the slow development of a low pressure system over eastern Bass Strait on Thursday. As per Katie’s forecast on Wednesday, the storm undergoes multiple phases as it begins to unravel in the Tasman Sea this weekend. Friday morning saw the low situated over the southern Tasman Sea, bringing a gale force SW wind-fetch within range of the NSW coast.

This obliquely aligned fetch generates a rising steep angled SW swell that will produce varied wave heights across the coast– initially spiking to two to three feet across south facing coasts on Friday afternoon and quite possibly to three to four feet late in the day. However, most NSW coastal areas will be protected from the extreme swell angle and will only pull in minor wave heights in the one to two foot range under WSW winds.

The first phase sees SW gales sustained east of Bass Strait through to Friday afternoon before the low moves further east, causing wind speeds to ease overnight. This should translate into a first spike in S swell spreading up the coast; peaking on Saturday morning in the three to four foot range across south facing breaks before easing a notch during the afternoon. Expect smaller surf ranging from one to three feet across open beaches depending on exposure with fresh WSW winds maintaining relatively clean conditions all day.

The second phase sees a continuation of S swell emanating from the low - specifically from a strong SSW fetch sustained by the system as it drifts out into the south-east Tasman Sea over the next 48 hours. However, the strength of the pressure gradient is compromised by a relatively weak high pressure system located over the eastern interior, flowing through to a sub gale force SSW fetch east of Tasmania.

As a result, expect a continuation of fairly modest south swell ranging from two to four feet across the Sydney region throughout Sunday, with size depending on exposure. Locations from Newcastle north should experience larger surf in the three to four foot plus range owing to the region’s more direct exposure to the SW fetch. Sunday also sees light to moderate WSW winds maintaining good conditions across all coasts.

The outlook for early next week hinges on the development of a second low pressure centre east of Tasmania on Sunday. This feature is embedded within the broader south-westerly flow sustained by the parent low, is widely projected to reinvigorate SW gales over our swell window throughout Sunday. These winds go to work upon a still highly active sea state and should give rise to another substantial, mid period S pulse pushing wave heights back up into the three to four foot range across south facing breaks on Monday, grading to two to three feet across east facing exposures.

The tail end of Monday’s pulse should hang in at a good size early on Tuesday – still a solid three feet across south facing coasts. At the same swell direction tends more SSE as swell begins to fill in off the southern flank of the low, facilitating better penetration of the swell into east facing beaches. Lighter westerly to variable winds will again see good conditions across all coasts.

Wednesday sees smaller leftovers ranging either side of two feet across south facing coasts – in all likelihood marking a low point in wave energy ahead of another strong SSE swell event getting underway late next week.

Long Range
Some very interesting developments looms late next week, following the passage of an upper level low across the south-east of the continent mid next week. All key long range projections subsequently capture the development of a deep surface low off the Mid North NSW coast later Wednesday, resulting in a steep increase in SSE windswell throughout Thursday.

Although this holds speculative potential for heavy five to six foot plus surf, it also appears strong onshore S or SSE winds will be aimed at the coast between the low and a strong high building in from the west, so at this point wave quality is looking well below average.

This episode would tail off again throughout Friday 24 – speculatively preceding a new, strong pulse of S swell over the weekend of Saturday 25 May, arising from a compact low intensifying south of Tasmania. For the time being there’s still considerable divergence among computer modelling regarding the long range outlook, so check back on Monday for updates.

If you’ve got any questions or feedback drop me a line at benmac4cast@gmail.com