Victoria  Forecast
Forecast issued: Wednesday, 1 September 2010
Phillip Island Jan Juc Forecast issued Wednesday 1st September, 2010. Summary Thursday SW swell. 2 to 3ft+ Surf Coast, 3 to 5ft open beaches. S winds 5 to 15 knots. Friday SW swell. 1 to 2ft+ Surf Coast, 3 to 4ft open beaches. E winds 10 to 20 knots. Saturday Refracted swell crossing over with peaky E windswell. Peaky 2 to 3ft Surf Coast, 3 to 5ft open beaches. NNE to NNW winds 10 to 20 knots, potentially strengthening in the afternoon. Sunday SW swell, crossing over with some windswell. 2 to 3ft Surf Coast, 3 to 4ft+ open beaches. W winds 10 to 20 knots. Monday SW swell. 1 to 2ft+ Surf Coast, 3 to 4ft open beaches. SW winds 10 to 20 knots. Short Forecast Surf bumping back up a touch on Thursday with winds light to moderate out of the S. Swell is then forecast to drop off briefly on Friday, with wind conditions improving on the open beaches. There should be some peaky (and most likely lumpy) windswell hitting our coastline over the weekend. Forecast Overview Some fun waves around on the open beaches so far this week with surf holding in the 3 to 5ft range. Winds are NW this morning making for some ok waves, but a SW change is expected sometime today. Meanwhile it has been small and clean on the Surf Coast with waves inconsistent in the 2 to 3ft range on Wednesday. A series of weak low pressure troughs move across The Bight early this week, bringing a mixture of SW groundswell and windswell to Victoria. Close range windswell will add some wobble and unevenness to the swell on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. A ridge of high pressure, drops down into The Bight through the middle to end of the week, inhibiting the close range storm track. As a result we should see more organised refracted SW groundswell arriving through the end of the week, with winds swinging more E to NE. A high pressure system rotating in the Tasman Sea on Friday, drives an ENE fetch across Bass Strait. As a result we should see peaky E windswell hitting Victoria on Saturday. A low pressure system appears to drop into The Bight this weekend, deepening as it moves over Victoria. This storm appears to have swell producing potential, with a S fetch aimed toward (and in close proximity to) our swell window on Saturday. Resulting windswell is forecast to arrive on Sunday, pushing wave heights back up. This pulse of windswell is forecast to be short-lived with the storm moving rapidly away to the east on Sunday. Further Outlook The Southern Ocean storm track appears to remain relatively zonal beneath mainland Australia through the longer range outlook. Longer range wave models are showing mid range groundswell arriving through most of next week.