Surf Forecast - Victoria

East Coast VIC

Surf Coast VIC

Surf Forecast updated 5.00pm Monday, 20 May 2013. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast
Tuesday
SW groundswell 3 - 4ft exposed beaches easing. Grading to 1 – 3ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: WNW 5 to 10 knots tending light WNW to WSW tending light ENE during the afternoon.

Wednesday
SW groundswell 2 – 3ft early, rising to 3 - 4ft+ exposed beaches during the afternoon. Sets to 1 - 2ft+ across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 10 – 15 knots.

Thursday
SW groundswell gradually easing during the day. Sets up to 3 - 4ft exposed breaks, tending 1 - 2ft across Surf Coast. WIND: ESE 10 - 15 knots, easing later.

Friday
Leftover SW swell, 2 - 3ft exposed breaks, tending to a small 1ft or so across Surf Coast. WIND: Light WNW 5 - 10 knots shifting SW 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Long period SSW groundswell fills in throughout the day. Initially inconsistent 4 – 6ft exposed beaches, rising to 6 - 8ft+ during the day. Around 4 – 6ft across the Surf Coast. Grading to 1 – 2ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: WSW 10 – 20 knots.

For in-depth analysis read the Detailed Surf Forecast

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Recap
A gradual easing trend in SW swell over the weekend leveled off around the two to three foot mark across the open beaches on Monday morning, grading to a tiny one foot or so across the Surf Coast.

Forecast Overview
Tuesday sees an uptick in wave energy following the overnight arrival of a long range SW groundswell; strong enough to restore wave heights to a long lined, albeit inconsistent three to four feet across exposed beaches throughout Tuesday and a very slow one to two feet across the Surf Coast.

This stems from a distant polar low that flared in the vicinity of Kerguelen Island last Tuesday and Wednesday before weakening out again late last week. A light and variable NW to NE wind regime should see excellent conditions across the exposed beaches throughout the day.

Wednesday marks the arrival of another small to mid range pulse of SW groundswell, generated by a deep, compact low pressure system that developed over the far south-eastern Indian Ocean over the weekend. The system is projected to maintain peak intensity throughout Saturday before weakening out along the fringes of Western Australian longitudes by Sunday. This is likely to translate into a slow building trend throughout Wednesday, peaking in the four foot range across the exposed beaches on Thursday before fading to lower levels by Friday.

By Friday next week the leading edge of a large, long distance WSW groundswell is likely to make landfall across Victorian coasts – marking the beginning of a sustained run of WSW groundswell over the weekend of Saturday 25 May. The source is a gargantuan low pressure system that began to develop deep beneath Madagascar over the weekend before intensifying dramatically over the far southern Indian Ocean on Monday.

Long Range
The storm is now projected to maintain peak intensity overnight before gradually weakening as it stalls over the far south-eastern Indian Ocean on Tuesday and Wednesday. Never the less, the vast dimensions of this storm system generates a strong SW groundswell for Victorian coasts.

This is now projected to peak in the six to eight foot plus range across the exposed beaches on Saturday and significantly bigger across the south-west of the state. The Surf Coast will be the primary beneficiary; in all likelihood receiving long lined five to six foot sets throughout Saturday afternoon and holding this size throughout Sunday.

Local winds are looking favourable for the Surf Coast. A large high pressure system migrating across the south-east of the continent sets up a lighter westerly flow across the state; probably still W/SW on Saturday, tending WNW by Sunday morning.