Surf Forecast - Western Australia

Perth

South Coast WA

Summary
Saturday
Ease in WSW swell with light winds early.
Southwest coast: Clean 2-3ft+ easing
Perth: 1ft+.
Light South winds tending variable WSW.

Sunday
Slight pulse in mid period SW swell under onshore winds.
Southwest coast: inco 3-5ft.
Perth: 1ft+
WNW winds 10kt, rising strong NW 15kt+ late

Monday
Rising stronger SW swell mixed with onshore winds.
Southwest coast: 4-6ft early rising sloppy 6ft+ at southwest exposures.
Perth: 2ft.
Strong SW winds 20-30kt

Tuesday
SW swell gradually decreases with settling conditions.
Southwest coast: 4-6ft early easing 3-4ft
Perth: 2ft fading 1ft.
Easing S winds 10kt tending light.

Wednesday
Settled SW swell
Southwest coast: 3-4ft
Perth: Inco 1ft
Calm early, tending light to variable seabreeze

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Short Forecast
Saturday sees a return mid-range SW swell before conditions will be overtaken quickly late in the weekend. A new cut off low will bring a strong shift of NW to SW winds Sunday into Monday and rising short SW swell picking up early next week.

Recap
Clean and calm Autumn conditions showed fair surf midweek. However, weather shifted Friday as a weak low southeast of the state boosted a slight rise of SW wind and swell. There was little in the way of quality surf due to unfavourable winds from a WSW’ly Friday. Wave heights built in the 4ft+ range in the south grading to 1ft+ along Metro beaches, producing lumpy conditions.

Forecast Overview
A weakened pressure gradient temporarily holds over the coast Saturday. This will lead winds to decrease Saturday morning, coupled with an ease in SW swell activity. Expect semi glassy 2-3ft+ surf in the south and calm 1ft waves in Perth. Exposed reefs and beachies in the southwest will be your best bet for a surf on Saturday but may continue to hold residual lumpiness.

The break in winds will be short lived over the weekend as a new cut off low if forecasted to develop to our immediate west Sunday. Early Sunday, a pocket of light N’ly winds shows with a moderate boost in SW sets due to increasing long period swell offering 3-4ft+ surf in the southwest. By afternoon and moreso evening, expect freshening NW’ly winds with the approach of the small cut off low. The low is forecasted to be small and compact, which will lead to a rapid shift of conditions as it approaches. By Sunday night, rising onshore winds will shift SW into the coast and generate a strong textured rising mix of swells into Monday.

Monday will see the low move east into the bight slowly, followed by a developing high pressure system Tuesday. As of latest model updates, winds will limit conditions Monday as the gusty southerly to southwest flow will hender surf on open breaks, even though swell size should build up through the day with chance of 6ft seas and peaking conditions into nightfall.



If all goes well and the high pressure rebuilds by Tuesday, we could see improving wind conditions coupled with easing SW swell. Wind direction and strengths will be strongly dependant on the movement of the low pressure systems but should be light to calm. Swell is expected to peak Monday and will potentially continue Tuesday with 4-6ft surf early but with a mix of crossed conditions and possible "hangover" feel. Swell should settle and ease through to Wednesday morning with improving form.




Further Outlook
Weather models of the Indian Ocean are showing a large swell generating storm system developing west of Heard island in coming days. The large scale storm would generate a run of overlapping long period SW groundswells through the later half of next week for a chance to see good waves picking up with improved weather conditions into the long range forecast.

The first of the extended swell pulses would pick up long period forerunners arriving late Wednesday and then continue to fill in Thursday. This would fill in inconsistent sets Wednesday evening back up to head high and then fill in overhead range on sets Thursday and Friday.

Another overlapping long period swell would follow directly in its wake and push up another strong SW swell push around Sunday the 26th May for a continued run of overhead conditions. Check back for a detailed follow up on the probability of next week’s swell.