BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: May 29 - June 3, 2012
Coastalwatch’s Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa
Forecast Issued 28th May, 2013 by Ben Macartney
There’s no shortage of SSW groundswell on tap across the Archipelago this week; the highlight being a strong pulse of SSW groundswell arriving across Indonesian coasts this Friday and Saturday. This is backed up by a new SW groundswell early in June.
SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 15 knots
SSW groundswell 2 – 3ft+ most exposed breaks grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots
New SSW groundswell 3 - 5ft early rising to 5 – 6ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.
SSW groundswell 5 - 6ft exposed breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.
SSW groundswell 4 – 5ft exposed breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending ENE to ESE 5 to 10 knots.
SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.
A short term easing trend in old SSW groundswell precedes the onset of a new episode during Friday and Saturday 1 June that should restore wave heights to double overhead plus levels across the exposed breaks. The source of the groundswell is an extratropical low that developed deep beneath Madagascar last Wednesday. The storm carried a broad, gale force WSW fetch across the south-western Indian Ocean as it approached the Kerguelen Islands on Thursday and Friday, and it briefly sustained the fetch within closer range of Indonesian coasts as it moved further eastward last weekend.
The bulk of this episode begins to kick in throughout Friday, driving wave heights back up into the five to six foot plus range during the morning and maintaining this size throughout the day. The tail end of the swell should continue to run at four to six feet on Saturday before scaling back another foot or so by Sunday. Further, the longevity of the storm’s lifecycle should ensure wave heights hang in at a good size early next week; still ranging from three to four feet across exposed breaks throughout Monday. This episode coincides with a return to relatively light tradewinds across the region; mostly light and variable to light ESE to NNE throughout the outlook period.
By Tuesday 4 June we should begin to see the leading edge of a new, long period SW groundswell beginning to make landfall across the region. This still distant swell event arises from a complex polar low currently intensifying deep beneath the Mozambique Channel. Over the next 24 hours the low sets up a deep belt of SW gales aimed at Indonesian coasts from a distance of just under 4,500 miles out. The storm system carries the fetch further east throughout Tuesday before progressively weakening as it approaches Kerguelen Island on Wednesday.
Factoring in wave dispersion and erosion associated with the vast distance of the swell source from Indonesian Coasts, this episode isn’t expected to exceed four to six feet at its peak on Wednesday 5 June. This remains speculative and subject to revisions in the next update.
Beyond that, longer range projections pick up rejuvenated storm activity affecting the Southern Ocean during the first days of June. Key computer models pick up a first low substantially blocked by a high pressure system setting up of the Western Australian coast, so any SW swell arising from this system is only expected to be low to mid range.By Sunday June 2 we may begin to see a more vigorous storm development, both beneath Madagascar and another verging on Western Australian longitudes. These systems both hint at a couple of large SSW groundswells inbound across the Archipelago from Sunday 9 to Wednesday 12 June.
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