BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: 25 September - 7 October 2013

24 Sep 2013 0 Share

Forecast Issued 24 September 2013 by Ben Macartney

An active Indian Ocean storm track sees a succession of large SSW groundswells overlapping across the Indonesian Archipelago through the last week of September and early October.

If you've left it until the last week of September to get to Indonesia, you're in luck. Image: Kandui Resort.

If you've left it until the last week of September to get to Indonesia, you're in luck. Image: Kandui Resort.

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday 25
SSW groundswell 6 – 8ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday 26
New SSW groundswell 5 – 8ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Friday 27
New SSW groundswell 8 – 10ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 28
SSW groundswell 6 - 8ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday 29
New SSW groundswell 8ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 – 10 knots.

Monday 30
SSW groundswell 5 – 8ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.

OVERVIEW
The swell keeps on coming across Indonesia into the end of September following significant storm activity effecting Western Australian longitudes this week. The short term sees a renewed building trend in SSW groundswell throughout Tuesday, picking back up to solid six to eight foot plus levels during the afternoon and holding this size throughout Wednesday. This episode is the by-product of a large low pressure complex that developed over the south-east Indian Ocean late last week, aiming a broad SW fetch at Indonesia from Thursday to Saturday. Although this episode drops back again by Friday, it’s superseded by an even stronger round of SSW groundswell, originating from another intense low that fed into the broader low pressure complex rotating through Western Australian longitudes, regenerating heavy 30 to 40ft seas and swell along the storm track on Monday and Tuesday. This should sustain a full day of eight to ten foot surf across the most exposed reefs, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure to the swell – that arrives from an acute southerly direction of 200 to 210 degrees.

Latest Wave Tracker runs pick up the back to back WSW swells aimed at Western Australia, sending up strong SSW groundswells for Indonesia this week.

Latest Wave Tracker runs pick up the back to back WSW swells aimed at Western Australia, sending up strong SSW groundswells for Indonesia this week.

Source: BOM. The latest Indian Ocean MSLP chart depicts the vast low pressure complex currently rotating through Western Australian longitudes.

Source: BOM. The latest Indian Ocean MSLP chart depicts the vast low pressure complex currently rotating through Western Australian longitudes.

Although Friday’s pulse drops down a notch or two by Saturday, there should still be strong six to eight foot sets across the most exposed breaks on Sunday, gradually easing during the day. Once again, just as this episode begins to subside, it’s reinforced by another powerful SSW groundswell on Sunday exhibiting sizeable levels similar to Friday’s pulse; producing heavy eight to ten foot sets across deepwater breaks grading to four to eight feet inside the Bukit Peninsula and along Bali’s east coast. This final pulse originates from yet another compact low currently developing in the vicinity of the Kerguelen Islands. This system re-establishes a compact belt of WSW gales along the storm track, aiming another long interval SSW groundswell at Indonesia.

This may well mark the final major storm system to affect our south swell window. Although one final low pressure system developing over the south-east Indian Ocean on Thursday is projected to intensify as it tracks below Western Australia on Friday, the resulting fetch resides a little too close to the West Coast to generate another major episode for the Archipelago. Hence Sunday’s heavy SSW pulse is likely to subside early to mid next week; initially hanging in at six to eight feet on Monday before dropping into the four to five foot range by Tuesday 1 October. A continued easing trend in SSW swell appears likely from there; still hovering around three to four feet on Wednesday 2 before dropping to much lower levels into Thursday 3 and Friday 4 October.

Latest Wave Tracker virtual buoy readings show overlapping SSW groundswells inbound this week.

Latest Wave Tracker virtual buoy readings show overlapping SSW groundswells inbound this week.

LONG RANGE
However, just as one swell window closes another opens. A large low pressure system forecast to develop over the southern Atlantic on Thursday is projected to further intensify as it tracks below South Africa during Friday 27 and over the weekend of Saturday 28 holds excellent long range potential for a new SW groundswell across the Archipelago. The vast dimensions of this storm system give rise to a broad belt of WSW gales over the region, giving rise to a winter-scale SW groundswell. The leading edge of this episode is speculatively forecast to arrive during Saturday 5 ahead of the bulk of swell arriving during Sunday 6 October.

Tags: bali , keramas , uluwatu , lakey peak , swell forecast , impossibles , balangan (create Alert from these tags)

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