BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: 16 - 31 October 2013

15 Oct 2013 0 Share

Forecast Issued 15th October 2013 by Ben Macartney

A couple more powerful SSW groundswell’s light up the region this week before the Indian Ocean fall quiet, leading in an extended run of small to tiny surf across the Archipelago into the final days of October and early November.

There's still plenty of groundswell on tap across the Archipelago for another week and a half before a virtual flat spell sets in. Image: Kandui Resorts.

There's still plenty of groundswell on tap across the Archipelago for another week and a half before a virtual flat spell sets in. Image: Kandui Resorts.

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday 16
SSW groundswell 3 – 5ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday 17
New SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft early rising to 5 – 8ft exposed breaks during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Friday 18
SSW groundswell 5 – 8ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 19
SSW groundswell 4 - 5ft+ exposed breaks early, easing to 3 – 4ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 15 knots.

Sunday 20
SSW groundswell. Sets to 3 – 4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 – 10 knots.

Monday 21
SSW groundswell 2 – 3ft exposed breaks, rising to 3 – 5ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending S 5 to 10 knots.

OVERVIEW
Wave heights eased off in the wake of last week’s sustained run of large to heavy SSW groundswell, dropping back to more accessible levels across exposed breaks by Tuesday morning under light and variable winds. Although early October’s run of large, winter-scale SSW groundswells has come to an end we can still look forward to another strong episode later this week that should nudge wave heights back up to peaks of six to eight feet later Thursday/ early Friday.This episode arises from another large, intense low pressure system that traversed the southern Indian Ocean on Thursday and Friday last week, aiming a vast area of SW gales at Indonesia for an extended duration of three days. The storm system evolved into a larger low pressure complex situated over the south-eastern Indian Ocean over the weekend before weakening out as it moved through Western Australian longitudes early this week.

Source: BOM. A deep Southern Ocean low moving through Indonesia's swell window late last week is the source of a strong SSW groundswell due to peak on Thursday.

Source: BOM. A deep Southern Ocean low moving through Indonesia's swell window late last week is the source of a strong SSW groundswell due to peak on Thursday.

The resulting groundswell should begin to show across Bali and surrounds throughout Thursday morning; starting at relatively tame, three to four foot levels early before kicking in at four to six during the morning and on to a stronger six to eight into the afternoon. The peak of this episode should hang in at similar levels for most of Friday before backing off during the afternoon. The tail end of this episode maintains good sized surf across the region – still up to four to six feet on Saturday, dropping to three to four feet by Sunday. Early Monday 21 October should then see relatively small leftover SSW swell hovering around two to three feet – marking a low point in energy ahead of a new, directional S groundswell beginning to show during the afternoon. This arises from another intense low pressure system forecast to develop deep below Western Australia on Thursday and Friday, setting up a broad SW fetch situated on the far south-eastern fringes of Indonesia’s swell window. Still, this should see a solid S groundswell for the region, inbound out of the 200 degree band throughout Monday 21, restoring wave heights to solid levels throughout the afternoon ahead of a peak in size in the six foot range on Tuesday 22 October.

Latest virtual buoy readings pick upt this week's first SSW pulse followed by a second, acutely S groundswell arriving early next week

Latest virtual buoy readings pick upt this week's first SSW pulse followed by a second, acutely S groundswell arriving early next week

LONG RANGE
Beyond that, all key computer modeled projections lean towards a much calmer Southern Ocean storm track prevailing throughout Indonesia’s swell window from this weekend – potentially remaining subdued right through to late next week. This leads towards an easing trend in S swell setting in throughout Wednesday 23 October, dropping to very low levels by Friday 24 that are likely to levels off in the one to two foot range over the weekend of Saturday 25 October. At this stage there’s still no definitive new swell sources appearing on longer term computer modeled projections, so it’s fair to say this week’s impending SSW and S groundswell’s may cap off the season for 2013. Still, longer term modelling is unreliable and major revisions are likely in next Tuesday’s update.

Latest Wave Tracker projections pick up a new low intensifying below Western Australia this Thursday and Friday, setting up a new S groundswell for early next week.

Latest Wave Tracker projections pick up a new low intensifying below Western Australia this Thursday and Friday, setting up a new S groundswell for early next week.


Tags: bali , lombok , surf forecast , keramas , uluwatu , bingin , balangan , impossibles , temples , chungu (create Alert from these tags)

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