East Coast Swell Alert: Updated March 13, 2014

10 Mar 2014 3 Share

Swell Alert issued 4.00pm, Monday, 10 March 2014. By Ben Macartney.

- Catagory three Tropical Cyclone Lusi continues to intensify west of Fiji on Thursday before curving southward and gradually weakening as it tracks towards New Zealand's North Island on Friday and Saturday.

- A building trend in E groundswell follows, rising across southern Queensland and far northern NSW on Friday ahead of a six to eight foot peak over the weekend

- The groundswell fills in across Sydney and the southern NSW coast late Saturday, peaking during Sunday and Monday respectively at similar six to eight foot levels across the most exposed breaks.

- Revisions are possible as the cyclone develops over the next few days.

Source: RSMC Nadi.TC Lusi begins to accelerate poleward from Friday onwards, bringing a gale force easterly fetch within more direct range of Sydney and the southern NSW coast as it goes.

Source: RSMC Nadi.TC Lusi begins to accelerate poleward from Friday onwards, bringing a gale force easterly fetch within more direct range of Sydney and the southern NSW coast as it goes.

Latest Wave Tracker projections depict the gale to storm force easterly fetch moving into direct range of the NSW coast on Friday as TC Lusi accelerates southward.

Latest Wave Tracker projections depict the gale to storm force easterly fetch moving into direct range of the NSW coast on Friday as TC Lusi accelerates southward.

Large E groundswell looms for the East Coast this weekend
It hasn’t exactly been a spectacular start to autumn across the Eastern Seaboard, but the coming weekend should make up for it in a big way. A major easterly swell event is on track to impact the entire East Coast this weekend following the development of Tropical Cyclone Lusi earlier this week. TC Lusi has steadily intensified over the last few days and is now generating a broad easterly fetch in conjunction with a high pressure system over New Zealand, cradling the storm from the south. Latest satellite passes have confirmed the system is generating a vast, slow moving ESE fetch of 25 to 35 knots, encompassing the north-eastern Tasman Sea and broader southwest Pacific Ocean. From Wednesday onwards the tropical cyclone curves southward on a trajectory taking it within close proximity of New Zealand’s North Island . From this point onwards the system commences extratropical transition as it encounters over cooler sea surface temperatures. Never the less, it’s projected to retain significant intensity as it evolves into a deep subtropical low on Thursday/ Friday, marking a peak in swell production as it supports a gale to storm force easterly fetch across it’s southern flank.

Tropical Cyclone Lusi has steadily intensified over the last 48 hours and is now generating a broad easterly fetch across the Eastern Seaboards mid to long range swell window.

Tropical Cyclone Lusi has steadily intensified over the last 48 hours and is now generating a broad easterly fetch across the Eastern Seaboards mid to long range swell window.

All key forecast models remain closely aligned regarding this scenario, indicating the ex-TC will begin to move over New Zealand on Friday, gradually drawing the easterly fetch further south and moving it substantially inside the swell shadow of the North Island by Saturday morning. So as an aside, if you happening to be planning a holiday to New Zealand’s Northland or the Bay of Islands this weekend, you might want to rethink. As for Australia’s East Coast, the end result is a heavy round of easterly groundswell this weekend. This commences with an initial increase across southern Queensland and far northern NSW on Saturday towards six to eight feet across exposed coasts and this energy should begin to show at similar levels across Sydney and surrounds on Sunday and early Monday.

Latest virtual buoy readings depict a peak in E groundswell across southern Queensland coasts this weekend, followed by an easing trend early next week.

Latest virtual buoy readings depict a peak in E groundswell across southern Queensland coasts this weekend, followed by an easing trend early next week.

The bulk of the groundswell is forecast to arrive across Sydney and the South Coast on Sunday and Monday.

The bulk of the groundswell is forecast to arrive across Sydney and the South Coast on Sunday and Monday.


Tags: swell forecast , East Coast , surf forecast (create Alert from these tags)

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