Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 1 September - 10 September 2015

1 Sep 2015 0 Share

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 1 September, 2015 by Matthew McKay

After a slow winter, spring has already delivered. The good news is, it's only just gettin started. As we see the current swell ease gradually over the coming days, a serious SSW will materialise by early next week.

As a large SSW departs our region, another larger swell is on its way. Photo: Rowan Walker/ The Perfect Wave

As a large SSW departs our region, another larger swell is on its way. Photo: Rowan Walker/ The Perfect Wave

Short Forecast
Spring has sprung in to action on the wave front. The Indonesian coastline is currently under the influence of a solid long period SW ground swell. A gradual decline in wave energy will result in fun waves persisting through the first week of September before another large round of swell graces the shores from Monday September 7. 

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday September 2
Strong SSW groundswell. 8-10ft at exposed breaks easing slightly throughout the day, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SE 5-10 knots.

Thursday September 3
Easing SSW groundswell. 5-6ft+ at exposed breaks easing back to 4-5ft by the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots.

Friday September 4
Mid-period SSW swell. 2-3ft at exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots.

Saturday September 5
Mid-period SSW swell to be replaced by a stronger long period groundswell. 2-4 foot with inconsistent sets at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 5-10 knots.

Sunday September 6
New SSW groundswell. 3-4ft+ at exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 5-10 knots.

Monday September 7
Building long period SSW groundswell. Initially 4-6ft+ with larger sets, increasing to 8-12ft at exposed breaks. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 10-15 knots.

Tuesday September 8
Heavy SSW groundswell. 8-12ft+ at exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 10-15 knots.

OVERVIEW
Winter certainly finished off with a bang. After weeks and weeks of mediocre 2-3ft waves, the Southern Ocean storm track finally reignited. An intense low pressure system coupled with a high pressure ridge near the Madagascan coast produced a broad fetch of storm force winds to the north-west of Heard Island. This resulted in impressive open ocean wave heights of 40ft+ in the Southern Indian Ocean.  

A strong pulse of SSW groundswell began to fill in on Sunday August 30.  Monday saw an increasing trend in wave heights with 6-8ft+ waves reported at exposed breaks. The peak of this swell event took place during the early hours of Tuesday with large, inconsistent waves across the exposed breaks. A steady decrease in wave energy will take place from here on in until a significant bout of SSW groundswell reaches the Indonesian Archipelago by early next week.

The aforementioned Southern Ocean storm is currently tracking toward the West Australian coastline. Winds from this system have eased slightly and have realigned to a more westerly bias. In saying this, due to the long distance between Indonesia and the swell source, surfers will still experience large waves over the coming days.

Friday marks the low point in wave energy as this storm exits our swell window, leaving us with a mid-period SSW swell which isn’t expected to exceed 3ft. Fortunately, for Indonesians and tourists alike, an elongated area of low pressure is expected to direct a minor fetch at our coastline. This will result in a small long range swell which will begin to take effect by Saturday afternoon. This swell is expected to build overnight and into Sunday which should see fun 3-4ft+ waves on offer.

Another deep polar low currently located below South Africa will give rise to powerful SSW groundswell. Winds within the core of this system are currently in the 35 knot range. As this storm migrates into our swell window, it is expected to consolidate. The latest GFS model run indicates a broad area of 50-60 knot south to south westerly winds.

Significant wave heights within this low are forecast to be upwards of 50ft, consequently leading to a large to extra-large SSW groundswell to impact the Indonesian shores by Monday/ Tuesday next week. The leading edge of this system will begin to show during the morning of Monday September 6. Initial forerunners with very long wave periods (22+ seconds) are expected ahead of a steep rise in swell throughout the day. By Tuesday, the bulk of the swell will be in the water with wave heights in the 8-12ft plus range likely across exposed breaks.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick show a large SSW groundswell filling in by Monday September 7.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick show a large SSW groundswell filling in by Monday September 7.

LONG RANGE
Although a gradual decline in wave height will follow Tuesdays peak, this large SSW swell is forecast to linger. Wave heights on Wednesday are still expect to be in the 8-10ft+ range whilst Thursday may still see waves in the 6-8ft+ range. Beyond this, the current GFS and ECMWF models portray a branch of low pressure extending toward the lower latitudes by Thursday September 10, potentially leading to yet another moderate south west groundswell by Saturday September 12.  

It is important to note that due to the long range nature of this forecast there is obvious divergence amongst global weather and wave models so please check back next week for an update. In the meantime, get your guns ready and book your flights.

Tags: indo , forecast , swell , spring , bali , september , topnews (create Alert from these tags)

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