Swell Will Hit For Pipe Masters

1 Dec 2015 0 Share

Matt McKay

Swell Forecaster

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2015 Billabong Pipeline Masters Long-Range Forecast

The battle for the hotly contested world championship all comes down to the final event, the Billabong Pipe Masters. Three Australians (Mick Fanning, Julian Wilson & Owen Wright) and three Brazilians (Gabriel Medina, Adriano De Souza & Felipe Toledo) will take to the water in the world’s greatest surfing arena to fight it out.

With the waiting period just over a week away tension is rising along Oahu’s North Shore. Murmurs of the correlation between El-Niño and huge NW swells, contestants, organisers and fans all want to know one thing, just how good will it get? (see detailed forecast below)

In short. It’s looking epic. Current long range projections are showing signs of back-to-back solid NW swells hitting the region over the next two weeks. A large, possibly extra-large swell is forecast to fill in late on Saturday December 5, with wave heights in the vicinity of 20 feet likely at some big wave spots. (At this stage, it look like this swell will be too big for the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach). This swell is expected to maintain its energy overnight, with huge surf forecast for Sunday. By Monday, we will focus our attention back to Pipeline. Wave heights will fall back to a measly 8-10ft which may prove to be a good warm up for the world’s best surfers. At this stage, the first five days of the waiting period are looking promising with yet another round of swell due to impact the North Shore.

LISTEN NOW: JJF's View From A Blue Moon SoundTrack

Wave Watch III significant wave height shows a large NW swell inbound for Hawaii this weekend. Source: NOAA/ NCEP

Wave Watch III significant wave height shows a large NW swell inbound for Hawaii this weekend. Source: NOAA/ NCEP

The Forecast

Remember Hawaii is a day behind those of us in Australia so you will have to set your alarms to catch all the action.

Tuesday December 8
Building NW groundswell building throughout the day. Initially 4-6ft increasing to 8-10ft by the afternoon. WIND: Light E early tending moderate ENE.

Wednesday December 9
Large NW groundswell. 8-10ft+ with larger inconsistent sets. WIND: Light E increasing throughout the day.

Thursday December 10
Solid NW groundswell. 6-8ft+ with larger inconsistent sets decreasing to 6-8ft+ by the afternoon. WIND: Light E increasing throughout the day.

Friday December 11
NW swell. 5-6ft early before a possible sharp rise in groundswell, speculatively reaching 8-10ft by the afternoon. WIND: Light E increasing throughout the day.

Saturday December 12
Solid NW groundswell. 8-10ft early before fading slightly throughout the day. WIND: Moderate ENE.

December 13-20
Gazing further into the future, current model guidance is indicative of more solid swell propagating toward the North Shore throughout the 13th, 14th and 15th before declining back to the 2 to 4 foot range by December 16th. Of course, due to the long range nature of this forecast, further revision is required so be sure to check back next week for an update. 

SEE ALSO: East Coast Swell Alert Tropical Cyclone Tuni

Here we can see two storms in the North Pacific that will generate serious waves across the North Shore. Source: NCEP

Here we can see two storms in the North Pacific that will generate serious waves across the North Shore. Source: NCEP

Tags: forecast , hawaii , pipe , masters , gallery , andrew , christie , matt , mckay (create Alert from these tags)

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