Forecast: Will There Be Waves At Pipe To Decide The World Champ?

15 Dec 2015 4 Share

Matt McKay

Swell Forecaster

Jamie O'Brien charging and about to draw Mick Fanning, Photo by Cestari / WSL

Jamie O'Brien charging and about to draw Mick Fanning, Photo by Cestari / WSL

Billabong Pipe Masters Swell Update 15.12.2015

*All times and days are based on Hawaiian Local Time

With multiple consecutive lay days called and tiny waves forecast for the end of the waiting period, event organisers will be forced to run the Billabong Pipe Masters within the next three days. Unfortunately, the large surf associated with the intense storm that we’ve been tracking since its formation off Japans east coast has been significantly downgraded over the last 48 hours. A favourable situation for large wave generation for the North Shore would involve slow movement toward the ENE, sweeping below the Aleutian Island chain. However, a broad high-pressure system within the North Pacific basin and strong winds aloft have rapidly steered this storm further north behind the islands, effectively blocking any XL swell from reaching ‘The Seven Mile Miracle’. Although, no huge swell will be on the cards, there will definitely be some contestable waves on offer.

SEE ALSO: Sean Doherty On Scripting The Unscripted - Day 2 Pipe Masters Wrap-Up

A strong high steers our intense storm behind the Aleutian Islands, destroying any chance of  seeing another XL swell for this year's Billabong Pipe Masters. Source: NCEP/ NWS

A strong high steers our intense storm behind the Aleutian Islands, destroying any chance of seeing another XL swell for this year's Billabong Pipe Masters. Source: NCEP/ NWS

We are forecasting an increase in wave energy throughout Tuesday, potentially reaching 4-5ft by dark. Wednesday will mark a high point in wave energy, speculatively peaking at 5-6ft+ (with possible larger sets). Beyond this, we will see a steady decline in wave heights, grading to flat by Saturday. Winds will be out of the east on Tuesday and Wednesday morning before tending ENE (not desirable for Pipe) by Wednesday afternoon. This ENE flow is likely to persist throughout the rest of the week, making for some bumpy conditions to see out the remainder of the event.

Tuesday December 15
Building NW groundswell. 2-3ft early, increasing to 4-5ft by dark with larger inconsistent sets likely. WIND: Moderate E throughout the day.

Wednesday December 16
NNW groundswell tending NW. 4-6ft early increasing to 5-6ft+ with larger inconsistent sets likely. WIND: Early E tending ENE and strengthening.

Thursday December 17
Easing NW swell. 4-6ft early easing to 2ft+ by the afternoon. WIND: Moderate ENE all day.

Friday December 18
Small NW swell. 1-2ft. WIND: Moderate ENE all day.

Saturday December 19
Flat. WIND: Moderate ENE all day.

Sunday December 20
Low scale NNW swell. 1-2ft. WIND: Moderate E all day.

Tags: topnews , pipe , masters , forecast , hawaii , matt , mckay (create Alert from these tags)

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