A Very Merry Weekend Surf Forecast 25-27 December 2015

24 Dec 2015 0 Share

Matt McKay

Swell Forecaster

Weekend Surf Forecast 25-27 December 2015
Forecast issued Thursday, December 24, 2015

This time of year is always jammed packed with excitement and anticipation as most of us enjoy a much-needed break. The good news for Australians is that we can usually relax by going surfing during our summer Christmas. This year will be no exception.

The East coast appears to be the only place in the country that isn’t going to pump at some stage over the next three days. Instead, surfers here will have to deal with smallish waves and poor winds. In contrast to this, Victoria and South Australia will see great waves tomorrow as a strong SW swell fills in overnight. Whilst Western Australia won’t see epic conditions on Christmas Day, early offshore winds coupled with an easing SW groundswell will ensure that surfers get their fair share of waves.

The team at Coastalwatch would like to wish you all a safe and merry Christmas!

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Lots of waves around, just not many good ones Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: snicko

Lots of waves around, just not many good ones Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: snicko

Sydney, Newcastle & South Coast
Christmas and Boxing Day are shaping up to be quite similar to one another as small 1-3ft waves move in across the region. Strong ridging will see moderate NE winds blow throughout both afternoons so try and find a sheltered corner. Sunday marks the arrival of a brisk southerly change. From this we should see a new south windswell pop up, delivering waves ranging from 2 to 3 feet across southern exposures.

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Friday 
Low scale E swell. 1-3ft across exposed beaches, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: NE 5-10 knots increasing to 15-20 knots.

Saturday
Small ENE swell. 1-3ft across exposed beaches, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: NNE 10-15 knots tending NE 20-25 knots.

Sunday
Mix of S/ SSE swell and old ENE swell. 2-3ft across south facing beaches. Grading smaller elsewhere.  WIND: SSW 20-30 knots tending SSE 15-20 knots.

A high pressure system over the Tasman will direct small waves at the QLD coast this Christmas. Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: jaidyn

A high pressure system over the Tasman will direct small waves at the QLD coast this Christmas. Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: jaidyn

QLD & Far Northern NSW
The tropical low (potential TC) over the Gulf of Carpentaria isn’t expected to reach the Coral Sea; instead it looks like it will head inland. Whilst this isn’t great news for surfers, spare a thought for our farmers residing in the drought-stricken QLD interior who are relying on this rain event.

Anyway back to this weekend of surf. There isn’t anything too major on the cards for SE QLD; with wave heights hovering around the 2ft mark throughout Friday and Saturday before increasing slightly by Sunday. As is the case when there’s a S swell in the water, Nth NSW will fare slightly better. Winds aren’t great but we may see some light offshore winds on Saturday morning, so get out there early. 

SEE ALSO: What Gold Coast Surfers Don't Want You To See

Friday
Low scale ENE swell mixed with SSE swell. 2-3ft+ across northern NSW south facing beaches. 2ft across QLD beaches, including the points and bays. WIND: SSE 10-15 knots tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Saturday.
ESE swell. 2ft across northern NSW south facing beaches. 1-2ft across QLD beaches, including the points and bays. WIND: Light and variable tending NNE 10-15 knots.

Sunday
Fun ENE swell. 2ft across northern NSW south facing beaches. 2ft building to 1-3ft across QLD beaches, including the points and bays. WIND: NNW 5-10 knots tending SSE 20-25 knots.

Did someone ask Santa for waves this Christmas? Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Leonbushnel

Did someone ask Santa for waves this Christmas? Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Leonbushnel

Victoria
It’s not often that long range model guidance is on the money 2 weeks out, so let’s just consider tomorrow a Christmas miracle.

A solid SW/ WSW groundswell will fill in overnight generating 5-6ft+ waves across the East Coast, grading to 2-4ft along the Surf Coast. With the long period nature of this swell, there’s every chance that there will be larger, inconsistent sets; so keep an eye out. Wind will be out of the north all day, need I say anything else? By Saturday, a strong change will clip the state, deteriorating surface quality. That being said, there’ll still be plenty of energy in the water. Another peak in SW swell will take place on Sunday; possibly reaching 5-7ft along the states East, grading to 3-4ft across the protected Surf Coast. Unfortunately, winds will once again be out of the southern quadrant so don’t expect to see Friday’s perfection.

Friday
Solid SW/ WSW groundswell. 5-6ft+ with larger inconsistent sets across the East Coast. 2-4ft with larger inconsistent sets along the Surf Coast. WIND: Surf Coast: N 20-25 knots tending NNE 15-20 knots; possible tending ESE east of Phillip Island.

Saturday
Messy SW/ WSW swell. 4-6ft across the East Coast. Grading to 2-3ft along the Surf Coast. WIND: SW 20-30 knots.

Sunday
Large SW swell. 5-7ft across the East Coast. Grading to 3-4ft along the Surf Coast. WIND: SW 10-15 knots tending SSW 10-15 knots.

The early bird will get the worm on Christmas Day in South Australia Photo: Matt Mckay

The early bird will get the worm on Christmas Day in South Australia Photo: Matt Mckay

South Australia
Hot northerly winds will ensure smooth surfaces throughout Christmas morning. Unfortunately, a frontal system will make its presence felt by around lunchtime, deteriorating conditions. We should see 4-5ft waves across the South Coast, grading to 1ft+ along the Mid Coast. However, due to the long range nature of this groundswell, surfers should expect to see inconsistent, larger sets; so keep an eye out for these.

By Saturday morning, we should still see some good energy in the water (4-5ft across the South Coast, grading to 1ft+ along the Mid Coast). Another rise in swell is forecast for Saturday afternoon; possibly building back up to 4-6ft. Winds will be out of the southern quadrant all day, so you’ll have to find a sheltered spot. Wave energy and height should be maintained throughout Sunday morning before fading slightly by the afternoon. Once again, we will see average conditions for the South Coast, whilst the Mid Coast fares a bit better.

SEE ALSO: 9 Ways To Improve Your Water Photography

Friday
Solid SW groundswell. 4-5ft with larger inconsistent sets across the South Coast. Grading to 1ft+ along the Mid Coast. WIND: NNW 5-10 knots tending N and then swinging SW 20-30 knots.

Saturday
SW groundswell eases and then builds again. 4-5ft building to 4-6ft across the South Coast beaches. 1ft+ along the Mid Coast. WIND: SSW 20-25 knots tending S 15-20 knots.

Sunday
SW swell. 4-6ft across the South Coast early decreasing to 3-5ft late. 1ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: ESE 10-15 knots tending SSE 15-20 knots.


Whilst Christmas is looking wild and woolly, the following days will ensure that you get your wave fix Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: MitchF

Whilst Christmas is looking wild and woolly, the following days will ensure that you get your wave fix Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: MitchF

Western Australia
Large waves will greet surfers along the SW coast of W.A on Christmas Day; Unfortunately, the winds aren’t likely to cooperate with moderate SSE to S winds forecast. As is often the case, the Perth/ Mandurah region won’t see much size with 1-2ft+ waves forecast. Offshore winds on Saturday and Sunday morning will make up for Fridays poor winds.

An easing SW groundswell should open up plenty of options south of Perth. We’re likely to see 4-6ft waves early along the SW coast and 1-2ft waves across the Perth/ Mandurah stretch. By Sunday, this swell will be on its last legs; 2-3ft+ waves will continue to ease throughout the day across the southwest, grading to 1ft around Perth. 

Friday
Solid SW groundswell. Southwest coast: 8-10ft with larger inconsistent sets across exposed breaks. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft+. WIND: SSE 10-15 knots tending S 10-20 knots.

Saturday
Easing SW swell. Southwest coast: 4-6ft early, easing to 3-4ft across exposed breaks. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft early, easing to 1ft+. WIND: E 10-15 knots tending SW 1-15 knots.

Sunday
Further reduction in SW swell. Southwest coast: 2-3ft+ at south exposed breaks, easing to 2ft+. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots tending SW 5-10 knots.

Tags: weekend , surf , forecast , christmas , surfing , australia (create Alert from these tags)

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