Weekend Surf Forecast 8-10 January 2016

7 Jan 2016 0 Share

Matt McKay

Swell Forecaster

Forecast issued Thursday, January 7, 2016

Australia’s diverse weather has certainly made an early impression this year. A tropical low lingered over Northern Australia and moved south, delivering some much-needed rainfall to the Australian interior. Those of us along the Eastern Seaboard haven’t missed out either. A coastal trough over QLD migrated down the coast to spin up the first East Coast Low (ECL) of the year, bringing flooding rains to the Mid-North Coast and Hunter regions. In contrast, to these widespread rains, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia have been under constant threat from bushfires.

In conjunction with this diverse weather, the surf conditions have been just as dynamic. A strong high-pressure ridge combined with an active monsoon pattern lit up QLD points on New Year’s Day. NSW hasn’t exactly missed out either, attracting its fair share of swell from this same source. Surfers along the southern coastline of Australia (VIC and S.A) haven’t been as lucky; persistent onshore winds and small surf have made the first week of 2016 one to forget. Western Australia has also been pretty good. Offshore winds coupled with multiple pulses of SW swell have made for some decent surf across the SW coast. So with the first week over and done with, what has the second weekend of 2016 got in store for us?

SEE ALSO: The Essential Guide To P-Pass

LISTEN TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST PODCAST BY REGGAE ELLIS

Lots of swell around this weekend with Friday and Saturday morning looking good! Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Tommy51

Lots of swell around this weekend with Friday and Saturday morning looking good! Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Tommy51

Sydney, Newcastle & South Coast
Well there’s been a lot of swell around of late, unfortunately, the winds have been very ordinary; thus limiting any great quality. However, we should see a return of early light winds tomorrow as the low-pressure system that has been battering the East Coast drifts toward New Zealand. There will also be plenty of residual SE swell in the water early, with 3-5ft waves forecast, before easing by the afternoon.

A new south groundswell is then forecast to march up the coast on Friday night, arriving in Sydney during the early hours on Saturday. From this, we should see some inconsistent 3-4ft+ sets at southern exposures, grading much smaller elsewhere due to the southerly bias. Our groundswell is forecast to fade throughout the day and into Sunday, with leftover 2-3ft+ waves likely across southern exposures. Unfortunately, you may have put up with light onshore winds on Sunday morning, so keep your expectations in check.

SEE ALSO: Super Saturday In NSW

Friday
SE swell. 3-5ft decreasing to 3-4ft across exposed beaches, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SSW/SW 5-10 knots tending ENE 10-15 knots.

Saturday
S groundswell and leftover SE swell. Inconsistent 3-4ft+ easing to 2-4ft across southern exposures, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending NE 10-15 knots.

Sunday
Fading S groundswell. 2-3ft+ decreasing to 2-3ft across southern exposures, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots tending E 10-15 knots.

Barrels, barrels everywhere! Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Danhayward

Barrels, barrels everywhere! Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Danhayward

QLD & Far Northern NSW
2016 has been a good year so far for surfers residing and holidaying along the QLD/ Nth NSW coastline. This coming weekend will see more of the same although, most size will be south of the border.

A low-pressure system sitting off the NSW coast will push a new mid-period S/SSE swell up the coast tonight, peaking tomorrow morning at 4-5ft across Nth NSW southern exposures; grading to 2-4ft across QLD beaches. By Saturday, we will see a slight reduction in wave height as our low drifts further E. But don’t worry, a fresh batch of S groundswell is forecast to grace our shores by Sunday. I must stress that due to the southerly bias of this swell, only the southern exposures are likely to benefit from this energy. A high-pressure ridge to the north of New Zealand will continue to propagate some fun E swell over the entire weekend, so those of you relying on the QLD points and beaches should see a few fun waves. Winds will persist out of the southern quadrant over this same time; mornings should offer much cleaner conditions with SSW/ SW winds forecast early each day.

SEE ALSO: What The Swell Did For Snapper On Saturday

Friday
Mid-period S/ SSE swell and underlying ESE swell. 4-5ft across Nth NSW. 2-4ft QLD beaches, grading to 2ft inside points and bays. WIND: SSW 10-20 knots tending SE 15-20 knots.

Saturday
Mid-period SSE swell and underlying ESE swell. 3-4ft across Nth NSW. 2-4ft along QLD beaches, grading to 2ft inside points and bays. WIND: SW 5-10 knots tending ESE 10-20 knots.

Sunday
S groundswell and mid-period E swell. 3-4ft across Nth NSW southern exposures. 2-3ft along QLD beaches, grading to 2ft+ inside points and bays. WIND: SW 5-10 knots tending SE 15-20 knots.

Not this weekend. Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Steve81

Not this weekend. Photo: Coastalwatch Plus member: Steve81

Victoria
Much to the dislike of surfers, persistent onshore winds coupled with a quiet Southern Ocean have rendered some of the poorest conditions we’ve seen in quite some time. The good news is that we should see a slow building trend in SW swell throughout today and into tomorrow; possibly reaching 3-4ft+ by the afternoon.

A small spike in wave energy will be evident on Saturday with 4-5ft waves predicted for the East Coast, grading to 2-3ft+ along the Surf Coast. Local winds will prove to be a problem though; stubborn SSW winds look like they’ll ruffle up the surface. Sunday morning is looking a lot better though. Light and variable winds and a mid-range SW swell will give surfers some much-needed relief from the pesky on/cross shore conditions. Judging by model guidance, we may even see a rise in SW groundswell on Sunday afternoon.

SEE ALSO: The Greatest Big Wave Surfer Of The Next Generation

Friday

SW groundswell. 3-4ft building to 3-4ft+ across the East Coast. 2ft building to 2-3ft along the Surf Coast. WIND: SSW 10-20 knots increasing to 15-20 knots.

Saturday
Mid-range SW swell. 4-5ft across the East Coast. 2-3ft+ along the Surf Coast. WIND: SSW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-20 knots.

Sunday
Mid-range SW swell and underlying SW groundswell. 3-4ft with larger, inconsistent sets across the East Coast during the afternoon. 2-3ft with the odd bigger set late along the Surf Coast. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 10-15 knots.

Nowhere really to recommend this weekend. Photo: Matt McKay

Nowhere really to recommend this weekend. Photo: Matt McKay

South Australia
Much like your Victorian neighbours, you too have endured a dismal run of swell. Unfortunately, this is set to continue this weekend. Small combinations of SW/SSW and SE swells throughout Friday and Saturday will see small, mushy 2-3ft wave filter into the South Coast (possibly larger across southern exposures). Sunday may be a tad better with light E winds forecast during the morning hours. We should also see a mix of SSW and SW swells in the water, generating 2-3ft waves along most of the South Coast. The Mid-Coast will be close to flat this weekend.

SEE ALSO: This Guy Is Just Like You

Friday
Small SW swell mixed with SE wind swell. 2-3ft across the South Coast. 0-1ft on the Mid Coast. WIND: SE 10-20 knots tending SSE 10-20 knots.

Saturday
Fun SSW swell and short range SE swell. 2-3ft across the South Coast with larger waves at south facing beaches. 0-0.5ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: SE 10-20 knots tending S 10-20 knots.

Sunday
SSW swell mixed with small SW groundswell. 2-3ft across the South Coast. 0-0.5ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: E 5-10 knots tending S 10-15 knots.

Should be a few fun waves around on Friday and Saturday morning. Photo: Dan Wyer

Should be a few fun waves around on Friday and Saturday morning. Photo: Dan Wyer

Western Australia
Friday and Saturday morning look like they’ll deliver some fun, albeit inconsistent waves across the SW coast. Larger waves will be evident on Saturday afternoon although, a WNW sea breeze is forecast to come in by lunchtime. The Metro beaches aren’t expected to exceed the 1ft mark so it may be worth your while heading south. Onshore winds will make it hard to find a decent wave on Sunday, especially under an easing SW swell.

SEE ALSO: 6mm Of Necessary Rubber

Friday
SW swell. 2-3ft with possible larger, inconsistent sets late along the Southwest coast. 1ft across Perth/ Mandurah. WIND: ENE 10-15 knots tending light and variable.

Saturday
Building SW groundswell. 3-4ft with possible larger, inconsistent sets early, building to 4-6ft along the Southwest coast. 1ft+ across Perth/ Mandurah. WIND: ENE 10-15 knots tending WNW 5-10 knots.

Sunday
Easing mid period SW swell. 3-4ft easing to 2-3ft along the Southwest coast. 1ft across Perth/ Mandurah. WIND: SW 5-10 knots tending W 10-15 knots.

Tags: surf , forecast , weekend , surfing , matt , mckay , reggae , ellis (create Alert from these tags)

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