Forecaster Blog: The North Pacific Rumbles (Again)

10 Feb 2016 0 Share

Matt McKay

Swell Forecaster

A deep low located in the North Pacific Ocean basin will satisfy the criteria for both The Eddie and Titans of Mavericks big wave events which are scheduled to run over the coming days. Source : NOAA

A deep low located in the North Pacific Ocean basin will satisfy the criteria for both The Eddie and Titans of Mavericks big wave events which are scheduled to run over the coming days. Source : NOAA

FORECAST | Forecaster Blog

The perpetual run of large swell for Hawaii and America’s West Coast will once again deliver over the coming days. However, this time, there will be more at stake.

For the first time since 2009, The Eddie has been given the green light to run on Wednesday, February 10 (Hawaiian time) as a large NW swell fills in. While a lot of the world’s best big wave surfers will be present for this event, it’s hard to turn a blind eye to Jaw’s which will also be macking over this same period. And to top things off, the Titans of Mavericks big wave event is scheduled to run on Friday, February 12 (US time), making it a very busy time for big wave enthusiasts and spectators alike. Now down to business.

SEE ALSO: What's In Tom Carroll's Quiver For The Eddie?

Late last week a new low-pressure system formed off Japan’s East Coast. Since its birth, it has progressed eastwards at a steady pace and has since deepened into a very strong storm. This storm exhibits some very similar characteristics to the storm that delivered the XL swell on January 27, 2016. Our new system is taking the same storm track as its predecessor and exhibits similar wind speeds (up to 65+ kts), fetch size and alignment, and of course, open ocean wave heights (50ft+). One favourable difference is the timing of this incoming swell. Unlike the previous XL episode which peaked in the late evening along the North Shore, this swell is forecast to fill in overnight and peak during Wednesday afternoon, which should prove to be ideal to run the infamous big wave event at Waimea Bay. From this, we should see some solid stuff from the early morning (20ft+) before the clean-up sets make their presence felt later on in the day (with waves heights of 25-30ft possible). Another bonus for this event will be the relatively light and variable winds that are forecast for Wednesday, making for some pretty smooth conditions throughout the day.

The long range nature of this swell will ensure that even larger waves will be drawn to deep water breaks like Jaws. It’s pretty hard to nail down an exact size, but it should be pretty similar in comparison to the 27/1 storm. Due to its geographical location, we will see the bulk of the size fill in a tad later than Waimea, making for an interesting afternoon of big wave action. The good news is that this storm is tracking quite slowly and so, we should still see plenty of XL wave activity persist through to Thursday morning, before easing slowly throughout the day.

SEE ALSO: Include Women Or Don't Run Mavericks

Now to the West Coast of America. As mentioned above, the coveted big wave event at Mavericks is set to run on Friday (US time). The same storm that is currently on its way to Hawaii will undoubtedly leave its mark on the upcoming cold water contest. Unfortunately, once this storm tracks past Hawaii, all signs point towards a gradual weakening. That being said, we will definitely see some 20-25ft waves hold throughout the day. It is important to note that there will be some long waits in between sets thanks to the distant swell propagation. On a more positive note, early offshore winds are highly likely, generating smooth wave faces before a light sea breeze kicks in around lunchtime. So with this in mind, surfers competing in the early heats will see the best of Mavericks, whilst those in the afternoon may have to deal with a slight side chop.

Tags: topnews , forecast , north , hawaii , the , eddie , mavericks (create Alert from these tags)

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