Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 8 - 14 June, 2016

7 Jun 2016 2 Share

Matt McKay

Swell Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | Bali, Indo Forecast

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 7 June, 2016 by Matthew McKay

More solid waves are on the cards as a strong SSW groundswell roll through the region over the coming days. Once this swell passes, we should see surf heights ease back to a more manageable size.

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Photographer, Bevan Gemmell enjoying the run of swell from the active Indian Ocean in Bali

Photographer, Bevan Gemmell enjoying the run of swell from the active Indian Ocean in Bali

SHORT FORECAST

The flourish of great waves is set to continue across the region. The powerful SSW that forecast to grace the shores of the Indonesian Archipelago will maintain solid wave heights throughout the rest of the week. So how big are we talking? Well, tomorrow morning should start out in the 4 to 5ft range with larger inconsistent sets likely. By the afternoon, this swell should really start to pulse, with 6-8ft waves forecast.

A peak in wave energy is expected to take place throughout Thursday afternoon, potentially reaching 10-12ft, with the odd bigger bomb in the mix. The swell should then slowly decline through Friday, before falling back to a more accessible 5-6ft+ by Saturday. If you’re not interested in the big stuff then you should probably wait until Sunday as there should be some leftover SSW swell in the water, with waves in the 2-4ft range likely during the morning.

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday 8 June
Building SSW swell with background SW swell. 4-5ft at exposed breaks increasing to an inconsistent 6-8ft throughout the day. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.

Thursday 9 June
Powerful SSW swell. 8-9ft building to 10-12ft across exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.

Friday 10 June
Solid SSW swell. 8-10ft easing to 7-8ft+ across exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.

Saturday 11 June
Easing SSW swell. 5-6ft+ easing to 3-5ft across exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.

Sunday 12 June
Leftover SSW swell. 2-4ft, possibly building to 3-4ft across exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.

Monday 13 June
Mid-period SSW swell. 3-4ft easing to 2-4ft across exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.

Tuesday 14 June
Fun SSW swell. 2-4ft across exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick up another round of solid SSW groundswell entering the region by June 8/9

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick up another round of solid SSW groundswell entering the region by June 8/9

OVERVIEW

By all accounts, last week’s peak in long range SSW ground swell came in a tad undersized but certainly didn’t disappoint. Solid 8ft+ waves were reported across exposed breaks, grading smaller inside the protected reef breaks and beaches. This swell was a result of a slow moving low pressure system which generated winds in excess of 50 knots across its north-western flank. As this system moved beneath Australia, we saw wave heights gradually decline into Saturday, before another small low pushed a new SSW groundswell into the region on Sunday.


A decrease in wave energy is expected throughout today and into Wednesday thanks to the subtropical high located over the eastern Indian Ocean. Of more significance is a new low pressure system that is currently developing to the west of the aforementioned high. Both GFS and ECMWF models are predicting this quasi-stationary storm to intensify over the next 24 hours, with forecast winds expected to reach 40-50 knots. Given this information, it looks like we should see the leading forerunners arrive on Thursday afternoon, albeit at low levels. Throughout Friday, this swell should fill in slowly throughout the day, initially starting out at 3-5ft, building to 4-6ft later in the day. Given the long period of this swell, there’s every chance that there will be larger, inconsistent set waves in the mix.


Assuming that not much changes over the next few days, we should see the largest waves reach the Indonesian shores by Saturday afternoon. Beyond this peak, model guidance is indicating that our low pressure system will lose its structure, resulting in a slow, downward trend in wave energy and heights from Sunday onwards. That being said, we can still expect to see propagation of fun waves to continue over this period, thanks in part to the residual swell, and some new, smaller swell generated from a series of weak fronts in the subtropics.
It is also worth noting that the winds over this forecast period appear to be favourable every day; starting off light at dawn before picking up a touch throughout the day.

LONG RANGE


Looking ahead, long range model guidance is hinting at a large band of high pressure making its way into the Indian Ocean. The forecast track and size of this expansive subtropical high means that we aren’t likely to see any significant swell across the Indonesian Archipelago throughout the rest of June. All is not lost though. Whilst you won’t need to pull out your Indo Gun, small waves should still be evident across the region as weak frontal systems pass through our swell window. With this in mind, you should probably make the most of the week ahead. It is important to note that due to the long range nature of this forecast there is obvious divergence amongst global weather and wave models so please check back next week for an update. In the meantime, make the most of the next 10 days.

Latest WaveTracker model run showing wave heights in excess of 35ft in the Southern Indian Ocean

Latest WaveTracker model run showing wave heights in excess of 35ft in the Southern Indian Ocean


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