Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 15 - 21 June, 2016

14 Jun 2016 0 Share

Matt McKay

Swell Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | Bali, Indo Forecast

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 14 June, 2016 by Matthew McKay

The consistent run of great waves continues. Whilst it won’t be as big as last week’s solid pulse, there certainly won’t be any shortage of swell over the next week or so.

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Lines after lines, Photo by Bevan Gemmell

Lines after lines, Photo by Bevan Gemmell

SHORT FORECAST

A comparatively subdued polar storm track will cap wave heights over the course of Wednesday before some long period wave energy arrives on Thursday. This coming weekend will see a sustained run of fun to solid waves across exposed breaks, with a peak expected on Saturday afternoon. Beyond this, surfers will be able to take advantage of fun, accessible waves across the Indonesian Islands as the Southern Ocean storm track plateaus out.

SEE ALSO: Jim Banks On The Perfect Indo Quiver

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday 15 June
Fun SSW swell. 3-4ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: E 5-10 knots tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Thursday 16 June
SSW swell and underlying long period SW swell. 4-5ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: E 5-10 knots tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Friday 17 June
Long period SSW swell. 3-5ft building to 4-6ft with larger inconsistent sets at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: E 5-10 knots tending ESE 10-15 knots

Saturday 18 June
Building SSW groundswell. 4-6ft increasing to 6-7ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: E 0-5 knots tending ESE 5-10 knots.

Sunday 19 June
Steady SW groundswell. 4-6ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: E 0-5 knots tending ESE 5-10 knots.

Monday 20 June
Gradually easing SW groundswell. Initially 4-5ft, decreasing to 3-4ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Tuesday 21 June
Small SW swell. 2-4ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: E 5-10 knots tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show that we have a consistent week of waves ahead.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show that we have a consistent week of waves ahead.

OVERVIEW

By all accounts, last week’s peak in long range SSW ground swell came in a tad undersized but certainly didn’t disappoint. Solid 8ft+ waves were reported across exposed breaks, grading smaller inside the protected reef breaks and beaches. This swell was a result of a slow moving low pressure system which generated winds in excess of 50 knots across its north-western flank. As this system moved beneath Australia, we saw wave heights gradually decline into Saturday, before another small low pushed a new SSW groundswell into the region on Sunday.

A decrease in wave energy is expected throughout today and into Wednesday thanks to the subtropical high located over the eastern Indian Ocean. Of more significance is a new low pressure system that is currently developing to the west of the aforementioned high. Both GFS and ECMWF models are predicting this quasi-stationary storm to intensify over the next 24 hours, with forecast winds expected to reach 40-50 knots. Given this information, it looks like we should see the leading forerunners arrive on Thursday afternoon, albeit at low levels. Throughout Friday, this swell should fill in slowly throughout the day, initially starting out at 3-5ft, building to 4-6ft later in the day. Given the long period of this swell, there’s every chance that there will be larger, inconsistent set waves in the mix.

Assuming that not much changes over the next few days, we should see the largest waves reach the Indonesian shores by Saturday afternoon. Beyond this peak, model guidance is indicating that our low pressure system will lose its structure, resulting in a slow, downward trend in wave energy and heights from Sunday onwards. That being said, we can still expect to see propagation of fun waves to continue over this period, thanks in part to the residual swell, and some new, smaller swell generated from a series of weak fronts in the subtropics. It is also worth noting that the winds over this forecast period appear to be favourable every day; starting off light at dawn before picking up a touch throughout the day.

LONG RANGE

Looking ahead, long range model guidance is hinting at a large band of high pressure making its way into the Indian Ocean. The forecast track and size of this expansive subtropical high means that we aren’t likely to see any significant swell across the Indonesian Archipelago throughout the rest of June. All is not lost though. Whilst you won’t need to pull out your Indo Gun, small waves should still be evident across the region as weak frontal systems pass through our swell window. With this in mind, you should probably make the most of the week ahead. It is important to note that due to the long range nature of this forecast there is obvious divergence amongst global weather and wave models so please check back next week for an update. In the meantime, make the most of the next 10 days.

Latest WaveTracker model run showing a consolidated low pressure system in the south-central Indian Ocean generating some solid open ocean waves on Wednesday night.

Latest WaveTracker model run showing a consolidated low pressure system in the south-central Indian Ocean generating some solid open ocean waves on Wednesday night.


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