Weekend Surf Forecast 7 - 9 October, 2016
COASTALWATCH | Weekend Surf Forecast
On any given day there’s usually somewhere pumping around Australia and if you have the time, money and mojo – it’s there for the taking. This weekend there are some good waves to be had around the traps, but it’s fair to say there’s no particular region that stands out as the place to be.
Of course, if you include some exotic locations that are just a hop, skip and a jump away, then there’s definitely one spot worth targeting. Fiji is only four hours away from Sydney by plane – and even less from Brisbane. Including commuting time, that’s how long it would take to put yourself in the midst of some big, perfect waves on Sunday. Otherwise, there’s always the ever consistent Indonesian Archipelago, which sees consistent small-scale SSW swell on tap all weekend.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
Anything is better than flat, right? That’s the best way to view conditions this weekend. Friday probably marks the best of the next three days as another refracted round of mid-period S swell shows up at a clean 2 to 3ft across the region. This energy fades again by Saturday morning, only to be reinforced by a fleeting spike in S windswell during the afternoon; for the most part not exceeding a disjointed 2 to 3ft across south facing breaks, with strong onshore winds making for far less appealing conditions than what the current westerly wind-regime is producing. It’s worth getting in early on Sunday to milk the tail end of the S windswell; it’s set to dwindle into the afternoon before completely drying up by Monday morning.
SEE ALSO: This Week In Surfing
Fun across southern exposures. Small S groundswell. Sets to 2 - 3ft south facing breaks early, easing to 2ft or so during the afternoon. WIND: WNW 5 to 10 knots tending variable, then NE 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Windblown S swell picks up later. Leftover S swell initially 1 – 2ft max south facing breaks and near flat elsewhere. S windswell picks up towards a junky 2 – 3ft during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early WNW 5 to 15 knots, shifting S 15 to 25 knots mid to late morning.
Go early for the best of it. Leftover S windswell. Around 2ft+ south facing breaks early, fading during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light WSW tending variable, then NNE and freshening to 15 to 25 knots later.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
As the crow flies, the distance between Coolangatta and Ballina is just a little under 80 clicks and the drive is bang on one hour in a car. But when it comes to surf-potential, they can be light-years apart. That’s definitely the case this weekend as the only sniff of swell is arriving out of the south – virtually SSW to be precise – and that means most of the deepwater energy will by bypassing southern Queensland on it’s way to Fiji. So, if you’re serious about getting some quality waves this weekend, your course of action is clear; drive south of the border.
Tiny and blown out. Reinforcing mid-period S swell. Inconsistent 2 – 3ft northern NSW south facing breaks, grading to 1ft+ across exposed southern QLD coasts and flat inside the points and bays. WIND: Light WNW, tending NNE 10 to 15 knots later.
Good conditions all day. Easing S swell. Sets 1 – 3ft northern NSW south facing breaks, grading to 1ft across southern QLD coasts and flat inside the points and bays. WIND: Early WNW tending N 10 to 20 knots.
Small to tiny leftovers. SSE windswell. Junky 1 – 3ft northern NSW south facing breaks, grading to 1 - 2ft across southern QLD coasts, picking up a notch during the day. Around 1ft inside the points and bays. WIND: Early inshore SSW 10 to 20 knots tending SSE 15 to 25 knots during the morning, then SE to ESE 10 to 15 knots later.
If you time your run accurately you could score some pretty good surf across the state over the next few days. Friday sees a steady anti-clockwise trend in wind direction briefly opening up good opportunities across south facing breaks and the Surf Coast before winds swing onshore SW during the afternoon. The good news is the onshore flow should substantially peter out overnight, making for still lumpy, but improving conditions as the day progresses. A projected drop in wave-energy by Sunday morning coincides with freshening northerly winds, making for great conditions across exposed beaches before winds begin to swing west later in the day.
Go early before it swings onshore. WSW swell. Around 4 – 5ft+ exposed coasts. Grading to 2 – 3ft+ across the Surf Coast. WIND: N/NW 15 to 25 knots, easing and tending light WNW, then W to SW 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Cleaning up for the late. Reinforcing WSW groundswell. Sets to 4 – 6ft across exposed beaches. Grading to 3 - 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: SW 5 to 15 knots, tending light and variable SE to ENE later.
Strong offshore conditions across south facing stretches. Easing SW groundswell. Sets to 3 – 4ft exposed coasts,. Grading to 1 – 2ft across the Surf Coast and fading during the day. WIND: N 10 to 25 knots, tending NNW to WNW and freshening during the late afternoon/ evening.
If you’re into kite boarding or wind-surfing, then the forecast is looking pretty good for some stormy big-wave action – or perhaps for some smooth sailing somewhere inside Geographe Bay. Otherwise There’s no sugar-coating what’s shaping up as a woeful weekend of surfing across the exposed Southwest. It’s worth making the most of a period of light winds early on Friday as it combines with a still solid 4ft swell across the exposed stretches. During Friday afternoon the approach of an extensive frontal system towards the coast triggers strengthening, pre-frontal northerly winds across the region – and by Saturday morning winds will have shifted WNW at strength - making a meal of an otherwise good-sized 3 to 4ft swell. Once the front moves through by Sunday morning winds will swing WSW, opening up some better options inside the points and bays.
Go for the early. Wave heights ease under possible light winds early. Southwest coast: 3-5ft. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft. ENE winds 10-15kts early, freshening NNW 25kts.
A lumpy, bumpy mess. WSW groundswell bottoms out with rising background wind swell. Southwest coast: 3-4ft, rising wind swell. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft+. NW winds 20-30kts tending 30kts WSW late.
Head of the bays. Rise in mid period WSW swell under continued onshore winds. Southwest coast: Messy 6-8ft. Perth/Mandurah: 2-3ft. WSW winds 20-30kts easing SW 20kts.
It looks like there’s fair to good conditions on offer across the state all weekend. Fluctuating levels of SW swell range between 2 and 4ft across the South Coast over the next few days, with Saturday afternoon shaping up as the pick as offshore NE winds coincide with a solid 3 to 4ft SW pulse. Sunday morning also offers up some fun-sized leftovers in the 2 to 3ft range – and it’s worth making the most of these conditions before winds swing onshore during the afternoon.
Not bad across the South Coast. SW swell 2 – 3ft+ across exposed South Coast beaches early, easing during the afternoon. Grading to 1ft+ along the Mid Coast. WIND: Early W to NW tending SW to S 5 to 15 knots later.
Pretty good all day. SW swell. Sets to 3 – 4ft across the exposed South Coast beaches, easing to 2 – 3ft during the afternoon. Up to 1ft along the Mid Coast later. WIND: Early ESE tending ENE, then NE 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Small and clean early. Leftover SW swell 2 – 3ft across the exposed South Coast beaches. Tiny along the Mid Coast. WIND: NNE 10 to 15 knots tending WSW and freshening later.
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Well, almost all. But definitely a solid weekend ahead.