The Weekend Surf Forecast 14 - 16 October 2016

13 Oct 2016 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | Weekend Surf Forecast

Forecast issued Thursday, 13 October 2016

Spring conditions make a return to much of the continent this weekend. In the wake of some cold, windy days across the NSW coast, the sun returns, temperatures climb and the surf fades. Saturday will be the pick as leftover SSE swell continues to pulse around the 3ft mark before substantially dwindling by Sunday. Both northern NSW and southern Queensland will also benefit from this event, with good-sized surf prevailing across the former region all weekend. Further south, Victoria’s exposed beaches experience two full days of small, mostly clean conditions. This is the knock on effect of a slow moving, blocking high pressure system that moved across the Bight this week. The high maintains a favourable northerly airflow across the region on Friday and Saturday as it migrates into the Tasman Sea. Over West, it appears winter still hasn’t relinquished its grasp over the region. The Southwest can look forward to large SW swell and strong onshore winds throughout Saturday, before Sunday morning opens up some cleaner conditions as the swell eases.


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Waves and warm weather. Spring is back this weekend. Photo: CW user Bodhitodd.

Waves and warm weather. Spring is back this weekend. Photo: CW user Bodhitodd.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
Friday is shaping up as one of the better spring days for surfing as a run of solid swell is greeted by early offshore winds. Although they’re set to swing onshore as the day progresses, it should remain light at 5 to 10 knots into the afternoon, making for good rideable conditions all day. If Friday is a no-can-do, then you’ll want to be getting amongst it pronto on Saturday morning. The tail end of this episode should be running at a clean 2 to 3ft early before fading as the day progresses – and with just a smidgin leftover on Sunday, it’s well worth making the most it while it lasts.

Friday
Solid and semi-clean. SSE swell. 3 - 5ft south facing breaks early, easing during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early WSW 5 to 15 knots, tending SW to S during the morning and then light ESE to NE later.

Saturday
Go early for the best of it. Leftover SSE swell. Around 2 – 3ft+ south facing beaches early, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light WNW tending NNE and freshening to15 to 25 knots later.

Sunday
Small to tiny fun. Residual SSE swell and slight NE windswell. Up to 1 – 2ft exposed breaks. NE windswell bumps up during the late arvo/ evening. WIND: Early light N tending NNE 10 to 20 knots.

Get in early on Saturday to make the most of the leftover SSE swell. Photo: CW user Wayne Pearson.

Get in early on Saturday to make the most of the leftover SSE swell. Photo: CW user Wayne Pearson.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
A typical surfers conundrum presents itself across the region this weekend. While there’s no shortage of solid SSE swell on tap, those locations receiving maximum wave-energy are also heavily blown out by strong onshore winds from the same direction. That leaves the points and bays as the only viable options for clean surf – but these locations will receive just a fraction of the deepwater wave energy wrapping in. With onshore SSE winds in force at 20 to 30 knots on Friday, these sheltered venues are the only sensible options. Other options will start to open up as onshore winds gradually ease over the weekend, but it won’t be until Sunday morning that we see smaller, cleaner waves in the 1 to 3ft range on offer across the exposed beaches.

Friday
Head for the points and bays. SSE swell. Solid 3 to 5ft northern NSW south facing breaks. Sets to 2 - 3ft exposed southern QLD coasts and down to 1 to 2ft elsewhere. WIND: SSE 15 to 30 knots early morning, easing during the day.

Saturday
Onshore winds moderate. SSE swell. Around 3 - 4ft northern NSW south facing beaches, grading to 1 – 3ft southern QLD coasts with size depending on exposure. Smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light SW to SSW tending E to NE 5 to 15 knots later.

Sunday
Smaller, cleaner leftovers. SSE windswell. Leftover SSE swell 2 – 3ft northern NSW south facing breaks, grading to 1 - 2ft across southern QLD coasts and smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light NW tending NNE 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.

There will be waves to be found both sides of the border this weekend. Photo: CW user Penny Kempe.

There will be waves to be found both sides of the border this weekend. Photo: CW user Penny Kempe.

Victoria
All signs point to the exposed beaches this weekend. A diminishing SW swell is set to coincide with light and variable to NNE winds – in theory making for ideal conditions for the state’s most open stretches of coast, fully exposed to the brunt of the Southern Ocean. The only issue on Saturday will be a lack of swell, with even the most exposed Southwest region looking very user friendly as SW dwindles to very low levels. Sunday sees an upswing in SW swell pushing set waves up to a more consistent 3ft across these regions as winds begin to swing back to the west during the day.

Friday
Excellent all day. Easing SW groundswell. Sets to 2 – 3ft+ exposed coasts early, easing to 1 – 3ft during the afternoon. Up to 1 – 2ft across the Surf Coast and fading during the day. WIND: Light and variable NW to NE.

Saturday
Small and clean across exposed beaches. Small-scale SW swell. Slow 1 – 3ft exposed coasts, grading to an inconsistent 1ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: N 10 to 20 knots, freshening later.

Sunday
Strong offshore conditions across south facing stretches. WSW swell. Sets to 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks. Grading to 1 - 2ft along the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: Early NNW, tending WNW 10 to 15 knots and light W during the afternoon.

A rare lull in wave-activity sees a full day of small, clean conditions across Victoria's exposed beaches on Saturday. Photo: CW user Taylorve.

A rare lull in wave-activity sees a full day of small, clean conditions across Victoria's exposed beaches on Saturday. Photo: CW user Taylorve.

Western Australia
It’s shaping up as another windy affair for the best part of this weekend, as solid SW swell coincides with strong onshore winds. Friday is pretty much written off by relentless WNW winds in the order of 20 to 25 knots – and Saturday is marginally better, thanks to a SSW wind-shift that will open up some better options inside the bays throughout the afternoon. Otherwise, you might want to wait until Sunday morning – by which time early south-easterlies should be offering up some still lumpy, but better rideable options across the region.

Friday
Good for a sleep in. Rise in WSW swell under strengthened onshore winds. Southwest coast: Messy 4ft rising 6-8ft+. Perth/Mandurah: blown 2-3ft rising. W winds 20-25kts with higher gusts.

Saturday
Head for the sheltered bays. WSW swell peaks early. SW to S swell and wind shift late. Southwest coast: lumpy 6-8ft, slowly easing. Perth/Mandurah: 2-3ft, settling in afternoon. WSW winds 20-25kts, easing SSW 10-15kt.

Sunday
Not bad for the early. Easing SW swell settles. Southwest coast: 4-6ft. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft. Calm to light SE winds early, tending SW sea breeze 10kts in afternoon.

You will be hard pressed to find conditions like this across the West Coast this weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

You will be hard pressed to find conditions like this across the West Coast this weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

South Australia
It’s looks like a pretty stock-standard weekend for surfing across the state. The current run of SW swell continued to hang in around the 2 to 3ft mark across the South Coast, with a temporary drop in size on Saturday preceeding a renewed push in mid-period energy on Sunday. Strong northerly winds will produce ultra-clean conditions across the South Coast on Saturday and light WNW to SW winds also hold fair potential for Sunday.

Friday
Not bad across the South Coast. SW swell 2 – 3ft across exposed South Coast beaches early, bumping up during the afternoon. Grading to 1ft+ along the Mid Coast. WIND: Light NNW to NNE.

Saturday
Pretty good all day. SW swell. Sets to 1 – 3ft across the exposed South Coast beaches, easing to 2 – 3ft during the afternoon. Near flat along the Mid Coast later. WIND: N 15 to 25 knots, freshening during the afternoon.

Sunday
Small and clean early. SW swell 2 – 3ft across the exposed South Coast beaches. Tiny along the Mid Coast. WIND: Early light WNW 10 to 15 knots tending SW and freshening later.

Expect small, clean conditions across all south-facing stretches on Saturday. Photo: CW user Will Basil.

Expect small, clean conditions across all south-facing stretches on Saturday. Photo: CW user Will Basil.


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