Weekend Surf Forecast 18 - 20 November, 2016

17 Nov 2016 0 Share

COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST

Forecast issued Thursday, 17 November 2016
By Katie Jackson 

As we head into late November, it is no surprise the summer swell pattern is beginning to emerge. A high pressure system set up in the central Tasman will begin to take place of where previous winter lows were brewing swell for the eastern seaboard. For the southern states, polar low pressure storm systems will begin to move southward towards Antarctica and their chilly winter fronts will make less impact across the Bight. This seasonal shift leads to a smaller trend in wave heights across the southern hemisphere for the weekend ahead, with the exception of some modest long range swell sources. Until the tropical sea temperatures can start up cyclone season mid-summer, we will be in this transitional stage of waning southern hemi swells and moderating spring style surf.

Also to note, there was a significant astronomical phenomenon this week: the impressive Supermoon. Images and news flooded the Internet of the biggest full moon of 68 years. What we saw was a combination of a perigee, where the moon is in the closest orbital position to the earth, and a syzygy, a linear alignment of the earth, moon, and sun (and some cool words to impress nerd friends). This resulted in a large lunar gravitational pull and above average tide swings during the week. With the full moon now passed, tides will begin to ease but still expect some extreme highs and lows to influence conditions through the weekend. Read more about this in the Super Mood story.

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Sydney looking at weekend windswells, Photo uploaded to CW by DanBielich89

Sydney looking at weekend windswells, Photo uploaded to CW by DanBielich89

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast

After a pulse of SE swell Thursday, a quick decrease of surf will take over through Friday and leave little in the way of surf for the weekend. This will be due to a rapid transition of high pressure in the Tasman and an exit of low pressure over NZ. Expect Friday to have the most options for waves before the SE swell will drop out in the afternoon and a new high pressure regime will set up. This leads to fair beach weather but little in the way of swell generation and small sized surf for a bigger board. We should see northeasterly winds across the northern portion of the high strengthen Sunday, and a small NE’ly windswell is possible to push in some alongshore waves late in the weekend. Overall, fair conditions but small surf for the weekend ahead.

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Friday
Fading SSE swell and slight NE windswell. Inconsistent 1 – 3ft south facing breaks, grading smaller elsewhere and dwindling during the day. WIND: NNW 5 to 15 knots tending NNE 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Slight NE windswell mixing with residual SE swell. Around 1 – 2ft exposed open breaks. WIND: Early S 15 to 20 knots tending SSE and easing during the day, then lighter SE to ESE later.

Sunday
Small S groundswell fills in. Around 1 – 2ft early, bumping up to 2 – 3ft south facing beaches during the day. Grading to 1 – 2ft elsewhere. WIND: Early light ESE 5 to 10 knots tending NE 10 to 15 knots later.

A swell run is on the way for QLD, Photo uploaded to CW by Dkimber8

A swell run is on the way for QLD, Photo uploaded to CW by Dkimber8

Queensland and Far Northern NSW

A SSE swell will kick in inconsistent sets for better breaks Friday and then trail off through the weekend. For conditions, a high pressure system will offer fair and good morning wind, making the weekend seem good for a bigger board with fading, clean surf. As well, a high pressure to the east will be setting up a renewed E tradeswell the first part of next week. Check out the full forecast for more info on next week’s swell run.

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Friday
Easing SSE groundswell. Around 3 - 4ft northern NSW south facing breaks, easing to 2 – 4ft during the afternoon. Sets to 2 – 3ft exposed QLD breaks, grading smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: Light ESE tending ENE 5 to 15 knots later.

Saturday
Leftover SE swell. Around 2 – 3ft exposed breaks, grading to 1 – 2ft+ exposed southern QLD breaks and smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light inshore NW to NNW tending NE to NNE 5 to 15 knots later.

Sunday
Mix of rising short period NE windswell and residual SE swell. Around 1 – 2ft exposed breaks, bumping up later. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending E 5 to 15 knots later.

Looking clean but inconsistent in Victoria, Photo uploaded to CW by Heatwaves1

Looking clean but inconsistent in Victoria, Photo uploaded to CW by Heatwaves1

Victoria

A long range SW swell sourcing from the Indian Ocean will be tracking in over the weekend while conditions turn clean under a building high pressure system. Friday will be the lack luster day of old SW swell and SW wind before a turn of new SW swell picks up Saturday and holds Sunday. Winds turn to a modest land to sea breeze pattern and although swell will be inconsistent, we can expect fair and fun conditions as swell builds Saturday to Sunday. 

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Friday
SW swell. Sets to 2 – 3ft exposed coasts early, slowly fading later. Grading to 1ft or so across the Surf Coast. WIND: WSW 10 to 15 knots early, tending SW 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
New mid-period SW swell picks up. Up to 2 – 4ft exposed coasts early, rising to 3 – 5ft during the afternoon. Grading to 1 - 2ft across the Surf Coast, bigger later. WIND: Early light WNW tending SW to SE 5 to 15 knots.

Sunday
Mid period SW swell. Set to 4 – 5ft+ exposed breaks, easing later. Grading to 3 – 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light NW to N, tending to sea-breezes during the afternoon.

Mid-range surf for the Southwest, Photo uploaded to CW by Taylorve25

Mid-range surf for the Southwest, Photo uploaded to CW by Taylorve25

Western Australia

Mid-range surf will show across exposed Southwest breaks with morning winds holding good over the next few days. Expect clean offshore flow Friday morning that will help a fading SW swell keep shape. By early, Saturday light inshore winds combine with a new push of mid-range SW swell that will increase 3-5ft sets inconsistently on open areas before the seabreeze. Sunday looks to hold the largest but the diciest winds for the forecast period with SW onshore flow returning texture as additional head high plus surf rising on open areas.

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Friday.
Ease in SW swell combined with morning offshore winds.Southwest coast: 3-4ft+. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft+. ENE winds 10kts tending NW then SW to 15kts.

Saturday
Building WSW swell under light winds early. Southwest coast: 3-4ft early, larger sets later. Perth/Mandurah: 1ft+, rising. SE winds 10kts tending SSW 20kts.

Sunday
WSW groundswell fills in under a fresh S'ly breeze. Southwest coast: 4-6ft+, rising 8ft+ sets in the afternoon . Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft, rising 2-3ft. S'ly winds 10-15kts freshening 20-25kts SSW'ly.

A slow start for SA, Photo uploaded to CW by Dekes

A slow start for SA, Photo uploaded to CW by Dekes

South Australia

It will be a slow start to the weekend for swell size, however, a high pressure settling into the state will improve weather conditions. Expect favourable beach weather that will offer light winds and clean AM surf conditions. Friday will be small off old SW swell but we have a long range swell source from the southern Indian Ocean tracking our way that will increase sets from Saturday to Sunday. A slow building trend in sets coincides with the clean conditions for inconsistent mid range surf, looking best Sunday as swell peaks through a calm morning.

Friday
Small-scale SW swell. Around 1 - 2ft exposed South Coast beaches. Grading to 0.5ft -1ft along the Mid Coast.. WIND: SSW to SSE 10 to 15knots.

Saturday
New SW swell rising through the day. Sets around 2 -3ft South Coast breaks, bumping up towards 3 – 4ft later. Grading to 1ft across the Mid Coast. WIND: S 5 to 10 knots, tending light and variable, then to seabreezes later.

Sunday
Solid and clean SW swell. Sets to 3 - 4ft+ exposed South Coast beaches. Wrapping around 1ft across the Mid Coast. WIND: Early light NE tending light and variable, then to seabreezes later.

Photo uploaded to CW by Rexwhitacker65

Photo uploaded to CW by Rexwhitacker65


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