Weekend Surf Forecast 13 - 15 January, 2017
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Forecast issued Thursday, 12 January 2017 by Katie Jackson
The bight is where the action is. A large storm moving across the southern Bight will extend a large frontal band into South Australia Friday morning and then push quickly eastward into Victoria in the afternoon. This complex low strengthens a large scale SW groundswell as it approaches the Bass Straight Saturday, bringing along with it a strong WSW wind stream and stormy rain band across the southern coasts of the continent. We can expect this system to move into the Tasman Sea late in the weekend, which should initiate improving and good conditions in the wake of the storm across Victoria and South Australia.
Western Australia will be on a downward trend after a peak from this system occurs Friday, but also show improving conditions with winds gradually turning offshore through the weekend. As well, a stronger southerly shift is possible along the East Coast Sunday as the low dissipates on the edge of the NSW southerly swell window.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
A small S swell will fade away quickly Friday under a strengthening northerly wind shift. Surf will hold small Saturday as winds decrease and cloud cover thickens under a mid level trough. Better outlook will be on Sunday with a southerly shift occurring from a front moving off the south coast.
Strong N windflow. Small SSE swell fades and afternoon sideshore NE windwaves. 1 – 2ft open and south exposed breaks, tending smaller in protected areas. Sideshore N wind-waves during the afternoon. WIND: N 10 knots early, increasing during the day NNE 15 to 25 knots.
NE waves settle small. SE shift possible in afternoon. Ranging from 1 – 2ft exposed breaks, gradTing smaller in protected areas. WIND: Shifty and variable. N 5 knots early before a SE shift occurs 10 to 20 knots, beginning in south coast and moving into midcoast later after-noon.
Refracted SSE swell fills in. SE wind shift for possible surface texture early. Gradual rise of extreme angled SSE sets ranging 2 – 3ft exposed breaks, tending inconsistently larger 4ft in late afternoon. Grading smaller in protected areas 1 to 2ft. WIND: SE wind 10 to 20 knots early, tending E and easing 10 to 15 knots in afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
A mid-level trough will decreases the surface wind gradient and subsequently, our recent E waves will back down through the weekend. Surf heights return small with easing wind speeds and residual minor E swell lingers in the knee to waist high range at better breaks. Look for a full volume board as the waves hang small and clean in the mornings on a full high tide.
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Decreased E swell.Around 1 to 2ft on exposed breaks. Tending to flat in bays and points. WIND: Calm early, tending NE seabreeze 10 to 15 knots in afternoon.
Small NE wind waves in afternoon. Ranging 1 – 2ft exposed breaks. Tending to flat in bays and points with 1ft localised NE windbump through the afternoon. WIND: NW 10 knots early, tending NE 15 to 20 knots in afternoon.
Settled NE swell. Possible S shift late afternoon. Ranging 1 – 2ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller 1ft range in bays and points. WIND: Light and variable early, tending SE 10 to 15 knots in afternoon.
A large storm system will strengthen as it tracks towards the Bass Straight late Friday, flaring up a significant and large SW swell event on Saturday. The front of the low would enters into east Victoria with a prefrontal N wind shift Friday; followed by a heavy rain band passage and stormy WSW winds by Saturday. A bulk of new SW swell fills in large wave heights through Saturday afternoon and then conditions settle into Sunday as high pressure fills in behind the front.
Strong offshores.WSW swell decreasing with N’ly wind. Ranging 3 - 4ft exposed coast. Grading 1ft+ across the Surf Coast. Dropping in afternoon. WIND: NE early 10 knots, shifting and rising N to W through the day 15 to 25 knots. Variable and shifty.
Rapidly increasing W and SW swell mix.Rising WSW windswell overlapped with SW groundswell in afternoon. Early WSW waves 4 – 5ft tending larger with rising 6-8ft+ sets on exposed coasts in afternoon. Grading 3ft along the Surf Coast with sets rising 4-6ft inconsistently through the afternoon. WIND: W 15 to 25 knots early, tending SW during the afternoon 15 to 20 knots.
Large SW swell settling through the day.Ranging 6 – 8ft exposed beaches early, fading 4-5ft in afternoon. Grading inconsistent 3-5ft sets across the Surf Coast early, tending 2-3ft later in the day. WIND: WSW winds to 10 knots early, tending SSW 10 to 15knots in afternoon.
Friday exposed areas see an unsettled SSW swell hold strong as a low pushes off the south coast of WA. High pressure will fill in Saturday and Sunday, and improving conditions look to coincide with easing wave heights. Look for cleaner surface conditions to develop as the large levels of SW groundswell fade away.
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Peak in solid SW swell under SW’ly winds. Southwest coast: 6-8ft early, rising stormy 8-10ft. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft+, larger sets later. WIND: SW at 20-30kts, easing 20kts SSW.
Easing cleaner SW swell. Light morning SSE winds. Southwest coast: 4-6ft, easing. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft, easing. WIND: SSE at 10-15kts freshening SSW 20kts.
Old SW swell bottoms out.Reinforced SW swell overlaps late in the day. Southwest coast: 2-4ft, 5ft sets late. Perth/Mandurah: 1 - 1.5ft. WIND: SE at 10-15kts shifting 15-20kts SSW.
A deep low-pressure system moves south of the Bight triggering a cold front and an initial rise in short range WSW swell on Friday. MMid-rangeWSW swell will soon be overlapped by a larger pulse in solid SW groundswell into Saturday and building wave heights should be seen across both Mid and South coasts. Stormy weather will pass and then conditions see a period of lighter SW winds that should create some semi clean, fun sized options Saturday. SW groundswell eases off further in size on Sunday for improving and settling conditions under light SE winds.
N winds and WSW swell rising later. 1-2ft+ South Coast, rising late. Grading 1ft, rising wind swell across the Mid Coast later. WIND: N'ly 10 to 15 knots at dawn, shifting 20-25kts WSW.
Strong rise in WSW swell. 3-4ft , rising 6ft sets South Coast beaches. WSW swell 1-2ft+ across the Mid Coast, rising 3ft+. WIND: SW 10 to 20 knots, tending to SSE 15kts. Lighter winds early on the Mind Coast.
Settling and improving. Easing SW groundswell. 3-4ft South Coast breaks, larger at ex-posed spots, easing. Grading 1-2ft+ across the Mid Coast. WIND: SE 10 to 15kts, easing 5-10kts then tending SSW 15kts during the afternoon.
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