Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 25 October - 5 November, 2017

24 Oct 2017 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | BALI, INDO SURF FORECAST 

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 24 October 2017

Late October through early November is shaping up as a great window to get amongst some clean, powerful surf throughout the archipelago. A significant activation of the Southern Ocean storm track brewing inside Indonesian longitudes over the coming week generates successive pulses of large, mid-period SSW groundswell; potentially arriving under a brief resurgence in light ESE tradewinds. 

There are likely to be plenty of empty pits going by as a series of SSW groundswells move in across Indonesia through late October and early November. Photo: www.worldsurfaris.com

There are likely to be plenty of empty pits going by as a series of SSW groundswells move in across Indonesia through late October and early November. Photo: www.worldsurfaris.com

Short Forecast
Several days of small surf in the 1 to 2ft range precede a building trend in SSW groundswell; setting in this weekend and culminating in solid 6ft+ conditions at exposed breaks under light ESE winds. A continued run of mid-range SSW groundswell is likely to follow throughout the first week of November.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 25
Background SSW swell. Slow sets not exceeding 1 - 2ft exposed breaks, fading during the afternoon. WIND: Calm to light and variable tending SSE 5 to 10 knots later.

Thursday 26
Background SSW swell. Sets up to 1 – 2ft exposed breaks, virtually flat elsewhere. WIND: Light E 5 to 10 knots tending SSE 5 to 15 knots later.

Friday 27
Small SSW swell. Sets around 1 - 2ft exposed breaks, grading to 1ft/ near flat elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE to SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 28
New SSW groundswell picks up. Sets to 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, building towards 3 – 4ft+ during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE to SE around 10 knots.

Sunday 29
Further increase in SSW groundswell. Sets to 4 - 5ft+ exposed breaks, peaking around 5 – 8ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 10 knots.

Monday 30
SSW groundswell. Sets ranging from 4 – 6ft+ exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Overview
Another strong surge in late-season swell-activity is on the cards for the end of the month, but until then there probably won’t whole lot of surf to speak of. Over the past week we’ve seen a relatively subdued synoptic pattern taking hold over the southern Indian Ocean. This was characterised by large, but mostly weak high pressure dominating the mid latitudes, dominating a succession of mostly low-strength frontal systems migrating west to east across latitudes bounded by 40s to 50S.

The pattern started to shift back in our favour this week as a mid latitude system set up over the south-central Indian Ocean; setting up a broad WSW fetch that’s set to migrate eastward below the archipelago over the next couple of days; driving significant wave-heights into the 20 to 25ft range. This is the source of a first pulse of SSW groundswell that’s set to fill in on Friday and Saturday, triggering a steady increase in surf-heights throughout the day.

This was closely followed by the development of a stronger polar low that developed below South Africa, generating significant seas and swell in the vicinity of 40ft on Sunday and Monday. The storm remained active below Madagascar on Monday and Tuesday and it’s forecast to support further wave-growth as it migrates further east over the coming days. The low evolves into a larger complex system as it moves across the south-eastern Indian Ocean, supporting a broader area of 20 to 25ft seas and swell.

The end result is a series of overlapping SSW groundswells moving over the weekend and over the course of next week; generating a string of solid surf days across the entire archipelago.

This activity is set to come to a head during Sunday afternoon and throughout Monday as SSW groundswell ramps up into the 6ft plus range across exposed breaks under mostly light ESE winds. This holds good potential for clean and relatively uncroweded overhead surf throughout the region – and it looks like there’s plenty more to follow into the opening days of November.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show a welcome increase in SSW groundswell setting in this weekend - and there is plenty more to follow over the course of next week.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show a welcome increase in SSW groundswell setting in this weekend - and there is plenty more to follow over the course of next week.

Long Range
Over the course of this weekend an emerging high pressure system developing over the central Indian Ocean exerting a suppressing influence on new wave-growth. With any luck this will only be temporary. Going on latest GFS model runs another deep low is forecast to develop deep below Indonesia over the weekend of Saturday 28 October; generating significant wave-heights in the 40ft realm. This holds good potential for a refracted round of long-period S groundswell; speculatively reinforcing surf heights at 3 to 4ft into Thursday 2nd and Friday 3rd November.

Beyond that, some recent projections pick up a large and intense polar storm taking shape over the Southern Ocean during the first two days of November; speculatively setting up a large SW groundswell arriving across Indonesia around Wednesday 8th and Thursday 9th.

Another intense low forecast to develop below Indonesia early next week holds good potential for a refracted round of long-period S groundswell for Bali and surrounds during the first week of November. Source: Wave Tracker.

Another intense low forecast to develop below Indonesia early next week holds good potential for a refracted round of long-period S groundswell for Bali and surrounds during the first week of November. Source: Wave Tracker.


Tags: Ben , Macartney , Indo , Surf , Forecast (create Alert from these tags)

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