Weekend Surf Forecast 31 May - 3 Jun, 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Issued Thursday, 31 May 2018
A large East Coast Low dominates the Tasman and gets all the attention on the East Coast this weekend. But there are also good conditions to be had elsewhere around the country that won't be hit with such winds and actually see fair and fine weather.
It is clear looking at the charts that NSW will get the brunt of action with XL surf streaming off a deep and wide East Coast Low. The low will begin projecting a volitile S wind fetch directly along the southeast coastline as it deepens rapidly into Friday. The storm progresses into a secondary phase Saturday where it sits near stationary in the central Tasma and expands a large ESE fetch from near New Zealand.
All in all, its safe to say the East Coast is about to be hit hard. The bulk of S swell slams in NSW Friday and continues at peak levels through Saturday before only minimally easing Sunday. Along the QLD coast, solid S set waves also will be wrapping in Saturday to Sunday. As well, the northwest quadrant of the storm may help sideshore winds in QLD, tending from the SW and provide offshore conditions at times.
Meanwhile, across the remainder of the country, a vast high pressure system extends from the Indian Ocean, across WA and spans down towards Tasmania. This high brings fair morning conditions, as well as easing SW swell, across the bight. Expect mid range surf coinciding with a clean land to seabreeze wind pattern for Vic and SA. A slightly bigger midperiod SW swell holds up in WA while winds tend to veer clean offshore at times.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
A large scale East Coast Low will produce solid strong surf across the region over the next several days. The ECL formation begins Thursday, strengthens to a deep large scale storm system spanning across the Tasman on Friday, and then peaking at a 994mb core early Saturday. The revolving fetch of gale force winds will make conditions shifty along with the large surf and passing showers throughout the weekend.
Large sharp rise of S swell builds in from new East Coast Low. Steep increase of S swell under strong stormy winds. Large crossed up S’ly surf rising from 6 to 8ft, with textured and poor XL size 8-10ft+ sets on south facing beaches late. Waves tending smaller in protected bays and points, with size depending on exposure. WIND: Breezy S 25 to 30 knots+, tending WSW inshore early. Heavy rainshowers.
Reinforcing XL surf with SE and S swell combo. SE groundswell with S swell combination well overhead, tending 6-8ft with 10ft+ sets for open breaks, grading 4-6ft in bays and points with size depending on exposure. WIND: Variable S 20 to 25 knots, tending SE 15 to 20 knots later.
ECL swell continues as swell direction shifts SE and decreases slightly. Holding for open exposures at 6ft range early, then slowly easing 4-6ft in afternoon. Size depending on exposure, tending smaller in bays and points. WIND: SE to S 10 to 15 knots varying S to SSW 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
A deepening low over NSW will lead to a sharp increase in alongshore SSW to S windswell Friday, however, due to the initial swell angle, QLD sees limited refracted S sets initially. Expect that same deepening ECL to expand Saturday and trigger big wave size as it it moves into better alignment with the SE swell window mid weekend. This will initiate a substantial large swell event with deepwater SSE waves overriding existing S windswell Saturday into Sunday. The SW windflow will make for varied and breezy conditions, tending good offshore to alongshore at times, while sets show overhead surf on open areas.
Steep S windswell as ECL develops off NSW. Varied S swell wrap, potential rise up of 4 to 5ft surf exposed northern NSW breaks, grading to 3 to 4ft southern QLD exposed beaches and smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: Early SW 10 to 15 knots, varying SSW 10 to 20 knots during the day.
Combined S’ly ECL swells pick up strong under SW winds. Larger cross of mid period SSE swell added to existing steep angled S windswell. Rising up 4 to 6ft+ and larger sets northern NSW south facing breaks. Tending 3 to 5ft across Queensland beaches with larger 6ft sets on south exposures. WIND: WSW early 10 to 15 knots, increasing SW to S 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts.
Combined S and SE swell holds up. Mid period SSE swell added to existing steep angled S windswell. Rising up around 4 to 6ft+ northern NSW south facing breaks. Tending 3 to 5ft across Queensland beaches with possible larger sets on top south exposures. WIND: S 10 to 20 knots.
Expect more organised surf emerging from Friday as a high pressure system settles over the region and provides generally light morning winds, followed by afternoon sea breezes. A combo WSW and SSW swell will settle Friday before long range SW groundswell sourcing from under WA will add long period sets through Saturday. This produces potentially good mid range surf conditions along open areas, best Saturday morning before the seabreeze and again early Sunday as it fades.
Fading SW swell mix with settling fair morning conditions. Gradually organising 3 to 4ft surf along the exposed beaches. Tending 2ft range along the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: Light and variable early, tending seabreeze from ESE later 10 knots.
New long period, mid range SW groundswells, best early before seabreeze. Set inconsistent ranging from 3 to 5ft along the exposed beaches. Tending 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast with lulls. WIND: Light to variable NE to E early to 10 knots, tending E to SE seabreeze in afternoon 10 to 15 knots
SW groundswell decreasing, better options early. Sets dropping gradually from 3 to 4ft along the exposed beaches to 2 to 3ft. Wrapping occasionally at 2ft range along the Surf Coast reefs with lulls, grading smaller in afternoon. WIND: ENE to 10 knots, tending E to SE seabreeze in afternoon.
After a low crosses the state Thursday, a weak high pressure system slowly shifts across the lower half of the state into the weekend producing a period of improving, light wind conditions. Friday holds disorganized from a large SW swell combo but then a slight ease in swell is expected to show into Saturday. Sunday holds best opportunity with a secondary reinforcing mid period SW pulse under offshore winds.
Mid period SW swell peaks in the morning as winds ease into the SW. South West coast: Messy, 8 to 10ft, easing later. Perth/Mandurah: Clean, 2 to 3ft. WIND: SW at 10 to 20 knots, easing westerly below 10 knots. Grading light SE early across Metro waters.
SW groundswell slowly eases under improving wind conditions. South West: Unsettled, 4 to 6ft+. Perth/Mandurah: Clean, 1 to 3ft. WIND: NW at 10 knots with possible inshore land breezes early. Grading light NE across Metro waters in the morning.
Reinforced pulse in SW groundswell as winds shift offshore. South West: Clean 4 to 6ft+, easing later. Perth, Mandurah: Clean, 1 to 2ft+. WIND: NE at 10 to 15 knots, easing and tending easterly.
Nice clean conditions due for the South Coast as winds improve from a central high pressure system over the state; tending light early followed by mild seabreezes. Overlapping pulses in mid range SW groundswells show although due to the distance from the source are not expected to show great size. Expect fun scale sized, groomed options to arise throughout this period on South Coast. Meanwhile the Mid Coast will struggle to produce any size.
SW groundswell slowly eases off under moderate north winds. South Coast: Clean, 2 to 4ft. Mid Coast: Cross shore wind affected, 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: North at 10 to 20 knots. Grading NNE across the Mid Coast in the morning.
Distant long period SW swell shows inconsistent sets. South Coast: Clean, 2 to 3ft, Inconsistent plus sets. Largest at magnets. Mid Coast: Bumpy, 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: NNE 10 to 20 knots, easing and tending NW in the afternoon.
Long period SW swell slowly eases as winds potentially shift into the west. South Coast: Clean, 2 to 3ft+, easing. Mid Coast: Bumpy, 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: NNW at 10 to 15 knots, tending west, WNW in the afternoon.
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