Weekend Surf Forecast 15 - 17 June 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Issued Thursday, 14 June 2018
When my Mrs asks if I’m planning to surf and I say, “No way babe, I just want to hang out with you and the kids all weekend”, she’s immediately knows there are no waves and that I’m on the hunt for points. Across the entire Eastern Seaboard, many such conversations are likely to take place as utterly flat conditions prevail all weekend. And by flat I mean pancakes; flat enough to leave many a surfer grumpy and disillusioned by Monday morning - so it’s well worth putting plans B and C in place ahead of time.
Alternatively, you could fly to Victoria. A recent upgrade in a forecast rise in SW swell points to solid 4 to 6ft conditions across the Surf Coast all weekend – but it’s only on Saturday that favourable WNW winds will see optimum conditions before south-westerlies take the shine off it on Sunday. Across the West Coast it’s also Game On over the next two days as a solid round of SW groundswell lights up the Southwest. Friday sees favourable light and variable winds offering up great 4ft conditions – and this is followed by a full morning of straighter offshore 4 to 6ft waves on Saturday. In contrast South Australia won’t fare so well in the surf department. A full weekend of strong onshore SW winds lend the focus to land-based activities.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
There’s clearly not a whole lot to say about the surf this weekend – because there won’t be any. A becalmed Tasman Sea remains completely devoid of new swell-sources for the rest of this week – and whatever residual E swell there is leftover on Friday will quickly be ironed out by a fresh WNW airflow across the NSW coast. That’s a recipe for a perfectly clean, flat sea surface, so if you don’t mind the cold it’s probably an ideal opportunity for an ocean swim or a bit of a tootle around on a SUP. Otherwise expect zilch in the way of surfing opportunities until Monday or Tuesday.
Residual ESE swell up to a slow 1ft+ exposed breaks early, flattening out during the day. WIND: WNW 15 to 25 knots
Virtually flat. WIND: WNW 15 to 25 knots, freshening during the day.
Virtually flat. WIND: WNW 15 to 25 knots.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
Like the rest of the East Coast, the prospect of surfing becomes increasingly unlikely as wave energy dwindles to miniscule levels over the coming days. Even the presence of a very small, long-range ESE groundswell isn’t expected to add any meaningful surf into the equation beyond 1ft this weekend – but at the right time and on the right tide this may be just enough to justify a paddle. Otherwise you’ll have to wait until Tuesday and Wednesday next week for a more substantial SSE swell.
Slight ESE swell up to a slow 1ft+ exposed breaks, grading to tiny levels inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light W 5 to 10 knots, tending light and variable during the day, tending light N later.
Background ESE swell around 0.5 to 1ft exposed breaks, grading to tiny/ near flat elsewhere. WIND: WSW to WNW 5 to 15 knots, freshening later.
Background ESE swell lingers around 0.5 to 1ft exposed beaches, otherwise virtually flat. WIND: WSW to W 10 to 20 knots.
There’s nothing quite like an upgraded surf forecast to get you in the mood for a surf or three – and that’s exactly what’s occurred overnight. The key computer models are now in tight agreement surrounding the slow eastward movement of a deep mid-latitude low beneath Tasmania over the next few days. The storm bring a 25 to 35kt SW to SSW fetch within point blank range of Bass Strait on Friday and Saturday; in turn triggering a steep rise in short/ mid period SSW swell for the region this weekend. The ideal placement of the low facilitates both the proximate swell-source and favourable WNW winds across its upper flank on Saturday morning; marking the best of conditions before we begin to see a stronger SW bias in local winds creeping in on Sunday.
Directional W and underlying SW groundswell build in. Ranging from 4 to 6ft along the exposed beaches early, picking up towards 5 to 7ft later. Sets around 2 to 3ft+ along the Surf Coast, bumping up later. WIND: NW 20 to 30 knots, tending WNW during the morning, then W and easing during the afternoon.
Junky SW swell holds around 6 to 8ft along the exposed beaches, while wrapping at 3 to 5ft along the Surf Coast reefs early, building to 4 to 6ft+. WIND: WNW 15 to 25 knots, turning WSW to SW during the afternoon.
Easing SW groundswell around 6 to 8ft+ along the exposed beaches early, settling to 5 to 8ft later. Wrapping at about 4 to 6ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs early, dropping into the afternoon. WIND: Early W tending SW to SSW 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
There’s some great conditions on tap across the Southwest this weekend as a predominant NE to N wind-regime coincides with a sustained run of mid to large SW groundswell. The upshot is consecutive days of solid 3 to 5ft surf along the more exposed areas, with light winds on Friday morning producing great conditions just about everywhere you look. Saturday morning is also shaping up as a good to epic window as early lighter ENE to NE winds greet a peaking SW groundswell – and it’s well worth making the most of it before winds swing to the north and freshen into the afternoon. That probably leaves Sunday morning as your last resort for some wind affected SW swell, hampered by strong NNE winds – and any windows of opportunity will quickly close as winds swing NNW at strength during the day.
Reinforced SW swell fills in under NE winds. South West: Clean, 3 to 5ft, rising inco sets. Perth/Mandurah: Clean, 1 to 2ft+. WIND: Light and variable to light N tending north, NNE later.
SW groundswell holds as winds shift into the north. South West coast: Clean at south facing breaks, 4 to 6ft. Perth/Mandurah: Clean, 1 to 2ft+. WIND: ENE to NE at 10 to 20 knots, freshening 25knots northerly.
WSW groundswell combines with a rising NW wind swell. South West: Cross offshore, 4 to 6ft, rising to a messy 6 to 8ft later. Perth/Mandurah: Semi clean, 1 to 2ft early, rising windblown 2 to 3ft. WIND: NNE at 25 to 30 knots tending NNW in the afternoon. Possible lighter NE to NNE winds across Metro beaches early.
Ugg Boots and log fires are looking 6ft and offshore this weekend as solid SW swell and strong onshore SW/SSW winds batter South Australian coasts. Friday morning is looking like the best of an ordinary bunch as an early westerly bias in the developing onshore flow offers up some solid cross-shore options across the South Coast. Otherwise you might be better off finding a cheap flight somewhere east or west, where it really is 6ft and offshore.
Large SW/WSW groundswell under continued fresh WSW, SW winds. South Coast: Semi clean in areas, 5 to 7ft, easing later. Mid Coast: Messy, 3 to 4ft, easing. WIND: WSW/SW at 25 to 30 knots.
WSW/SW groundswell eases prior to some overlapping long period energy later. South Coast: Semi clean in area, 3 to 5ft. Largest at magnets. Mid Coast: Messy, 1 to 2ft+. WIND: SW at 20 to 30 knots, easing later.
Minor SW groundswell peaks early under easing winds. South Coast: Messy, 3 to 4ft+. Largest at magnets, easing. Mid Coast: Semi clean in areas, 1 to 2ft+, easing later. WIND: South, SSW 15 to 20 knots.
Jonathan Gubbins Scores
Jonathan Gubbins Scores
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