Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 27 June - 7 July, 2017

26 Jun 2018 1

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 26 June 2018

After reading Jim Bank’s recent yarn detailing a recent near-death experience at Uluwatu, you could be forgiven for breathing a sigh of relief at the absence of large swell events on Indonesia’s forecast horizon this month. It’s now clear that the remainder of June and even the first days of July will see pretty subdued levels of surf on offer throughout Indonesia – particularly in the context of mid-winter. Having said that, there’s always some light appearing on the long-term horizon – and its increasingly looking like Indonesia’s south swell window will reignite into the first and second weeks of July.

The transluscent wave fields of Indonesia beckon. Photo: Ratu Motu.

Short Forecast
A series of small SSW and SW groundswells see an extended run of small-scale surf; mostly ranging from 1 to 3ft across exposed breaks for the remainder of June through the opening days of July. Beyond that there’s scope for a series of larger SW and SSW groundswells arriving during the first and second weeks of July.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 27
Mix of slight SSW and SW swells up to 1 to 2ft exposed breaks, grading to tiny or virtually flat elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 to 20 knots.

Thursday 28
Slight SSW groundswell. Sets around 1 to 2ft exposed breaks, bumping up slightly during the afternoon. Grading to tiny/ near flat elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 to 20 knots.

Friday 29
Small SW groundswell peaks during the day. Slow sets up to 2 to 3ft at best exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 15 to 20 knots.

Saturday 30
Fading SW groundswell reinforced by new SSW groundswell during the afternoon. Slow sets around 2ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 15 to 20 knots.

Sunday 1
Slight SSW swell up to a slow 2 to 3ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 20 knots.

Monday 2
Fading SSW groundswell. Sets to 2ft exposed breaks, dwindling into the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE and freshening 15 to 20 knots during afternoon.

Tuesday 3
SW swell reinforced by new SSW groundswell during the afternoon. Sets to 2ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 15 to 20 knots.

Overview
There’s no sugar coating what’s shaping up as an unusually subdued phase in winter wave activity across Indonesia, persisting throughout late June and well into early July. An unusually suppressed storm-track pervading the entire southern Indian Ocean offers very little in the way of notable new swell-sources – and it looks like this state of affairs will persist at least until early to mid next week. The current pattern features a weak high pressure belt dominating the mid-latitudes, positioned above a series of weak polar lows variously offering minimal surf potential.

The only notable new swell-source appearing on short-term charts is a weak mid-latitude low that’s forecast to deepen over the next 24 hours; setting up a moderate SSW fetch in conjunction with a high strengthening south of Madagascar. However, as this system continues to intensify on Thursday the orientation of this fetch will shift anticlockwise; becoming more SSE in direction and therefore aimed away from Indonesia. The upshot is limited potential for a mid-period SSW pulse showing up on Sunday 1^st; speculatively peaking in the 2 to 4ft range before easing again during Monday 2^nd;

Over the same period we have some smaller, underlying SW groundswell forecast to arrive in a series of pulses over the course of next week. Over the last few of days we saw some reasonably strong activity taking place over the far south-eastern Atlantic and subsequently below South Africa. This featured a series of vigorous frontal lows linked to a larger low pressure complex rotating west to east over the region; setting up compact areas of westerly gales; mostly effecting latitudes bounded by 40S and 50S. The net-effect of this activity is a series of relatively small, overlapping long-period SW pulses moving in across the region; commencing with a small pulse on Monday 1^st and backed up by something a bit larger during Tuesday 2^nd; speculatively peaking in the 3 to 4ft range on Wednesday 3^rd July.

What at first glance looks like a solid run of swell belies a full week of subdued wave-action, lasting right through to early July. Source: Wave Tracker.

Long Range
Beyond that we’ll be looking to our south swell window early to mid next week as a series of new lows develop throughout the mid latitudes and polar region further south. This activity commences with the development of a long, albeit relatively low-strength southerly fetch developing between a dominant high to the west and a complex low forming below Western Australia. This may culminate in a deeper low developing within close range of the Margaret River region on Tuesday, setting up a stronger pulse of mid-period S groundswell for the region on Friday 6^th and the weekend of Saturday 7^th June.

This in turn may be followed by a stronger SSW groundswell originating from a polar low developing over the same time-frame; supporing a longer belt of SSW gales southeast of Heard Island. For now the models are still divided on exactly how this will unfold, with EC runs showing the most favourable outlcome; suggesting a strong round of SSW groundswell will eventuate; speculatively arriving in the 4 to 8ft range around Monday 9^thand Tuesday 10^th June.

Beyond that, long-term model guidance favours a return of dominant high pressure over the south-central Indian Ocean over the course of next week; a regular feature of the synoptic pattern so far this season. That generally points to a relatively suppressed winter pattern featuring low pressure centred below South Africa/ Madagascar and also southwest of WA. Check next week’s update for clearer guidance on how this will play out.