Weekend Surf Forecast 14 - 16 September 2018

13 Sep 2018 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST

Issued Thursday, 13 September 2018

There are some really really good waves on tap at the right time and place this weekend. One such place and time is the Southwest at 6.00am on Saturday morning, as the arrival of a large SSW groundswell coincides with light offshore winds; in all likelihood generating very big and clean waves ranging anywhere from 8 to 12ft across the Margaret River region’s more exposed breaks all morning, while offering up clean 2 to 3ft+ waves across Perth’s metro beaches all day.

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Victoria’s Surf Coast will also be dishing up the goods as a large WSW groundswell coincides with a predominant westerly airflow; culminating in solid and mostly sets in the 6 to 8ft range as the swell peaks later Saturday through early Sunday. South Oz will also benefit from the same swell a it arrives from a more south-westerly direction under WNW winds. While there isn’t a whole lot of surf to speak of across the NSW coast on Friday, there will be waves this weekend; starting out with smallish NE windswell on Saturday, preceding the onset of a larger S swell peaking in the vicinity of 3 to 4ft on Sunday, with scope for larger surf across Newcastle and locations further north. Even southern Queensland coasts look like benefiting from the southerly pulse as it nudges up into the 2 to 3ft range on Sunday arvo, but otherwise the directional nature of the swell will keep wave heights down to tiny levels along the ponts and inside the bays.

Incorrigible optimism. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Peter Tids.

Incorrigible optimism. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Peter Tids.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast.
Summer one day, winter the next. Such extreme springtime variances in temperatures and weather are in full effect this weekend; commencing with very warm maximum temperatures of 29 degrees across Sydney and surrounds – along with a fun little NE windswell on Saturday; showing peak size of 2 to 3ft at the most exposed open stretches, but otherwise probably looking more like 2ft elsewhere. The arrival of a WSW wind-shift later on Saturday evening leads in a rapid, overnight drop in temperatures – cool enough to leave many hiding under the doona on Sunday morning. It will however, but well worth getting up and heading down to your closest south-facing beach as a steep rise in directional S swell sets in; potentially reaching peaks of 3 to 4ft plus at these venues under easing SW to SE winds.

Friday
Residual ESE and NE windswells around 1ft+ exposed open beaches, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light WNW tending light and variable, then NNE up to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Short range NE windswell ranging from 1 to 3ft across the most exposed open beaches, more like 1 to 2ft elsewhere. WIND: Early light WNW to NW tending N during the day, then back to the NW and then WSW and freshening into the late afternoon/ evening.

Sunday
Good potential for short-range S swell building from 2 to 3ft+ at south facing beaches early towards peaks of 3 to 4ft+ during the day.
Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early WSW to SW 15 to 20 knots, tending SSW mid-morning, then SSE to SE and easing during the afternoon.

A fresh round of S swell arriving on Sunday holds good potential for some clean, solid waves along the NSW coast before winds turn SSE during the day. Photo:  Uploaded to CW by Willment.

A fresh round of S swell arriving on Sunday holds good potential for some clean, solid waves along the NSW coast before winds turn SSE during the day. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Willment.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
There isn’t a whole lot of surf to speak of across the region – at least until Sunday. Until then, you’ll be contending with an increasingly diminutive mixture of east and southeast swells in the 1 to 2ft range, with a smidge of local NE wind-chop thrown in for good measure. Sunday marks the onset of a substantial S swell; albeit of directional, short-period character. This will invariably lend the focus to northern NSW coasts for some solid waves under strong SSE winds – but with any luck this should be enough to produce some good sized 2 to 3ft sets at Duranbah etc throughout the afternoon.

Friday
Mix of small ESE and SE swells. Mostly clean at about 1 to 2ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light WNW to NNW tending NNE 10 to 15 knots, up to 15 to 20 knots from Byron south.

Saturday
Background E/SE swells and light NE windswell. Sets around 2ft exposed beaches, grading to more like 1 to 2ft elsewhere. WIND: Early NW to NNW around 10 to 20 knots, shifting S across northern NSW coasts in the evening.

Sunday
Slight NE windswell around 1ft+ early, superseded by rising S windswell during the day. Picking up to 2 to 3ft+ across northern NSW south facing coasts during the day and potentially 3 to 4ft+ into the afternoon. NE windswell initially 1ft+ exposed QLD breaks, superseded by S windswell to 1 to 2ft+ during the afternoon with size depending on exposure. WIND: Initially light NW to W ahead of an early SSW change, tending S 15 to 25 knots during the morning, then SSE in the afternoon.

Northern NSW coasts will pull in the bulk of S swell as it builds throughout Sunday, but accompanying SSE winds won't be doing it any favours. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Aquatic_horizons.

Northern NSW coasts will pull in the bulk of S swell as it builds throughout Sunday, but accompanying SSE winds won't be doing it any favours. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Aquatic_horizons.

Victoria
The Surf Coast is shaping up as the place to be around the state – if not the entire continent this weekend. The confluence of a large WSW groundswell and strong, westerly quarter winds points to consecutive day of large, mostly clean waves; peaking in the 6 to 8ft range at the premier breaks as the swell peaks later Saturday through early Sunday. There are a couple of key things to keep in mind as this episode unfolds. The first is a substantial westerly bias of 240 to 245 degrees in swell-direction – which tends to make for lully conditions across the Torquay reefs. The other is a strong westerly wind-shift kicking on Saturday, making for breezy, strong offshore conditions for most of the day. That pretty much leaves Sunday as a better option for stil large WSW groundswell greeted by moderate WNW winds.

Friday
WSW groundswell initially eases ahead of a late push.  5 to 8ft along exposed beaches early, setting towards 5 to 6ft+ during the afternoon. Potential for clean 3 to 4ft+ sets along the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: Northerly 15 to 20 knots, tending NNW to NW and freshening later.

Saturday
Large WSW groundswell peaks under strong westerly winds. Up to a windblown 6 to 8ft early, building to 8 to 10ft along the exposed beaches during the afternoon. Wrapping at a solid 5 to 8ft along the Surf Coast reefs, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Initially WNW, tending W 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon.

Sunday
WSW groundswell slowly eases. Solid, wind-affected 8 to 10ft conditions along exposed beaches. Wrapping at a clean 6 to 8ft across the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: Early WNW 15 to 20 knots, tending WSW and easing during the afternoon.

A large WSW groundswell combined with strong northerly winds will have some positive effects on parts of the Victorian coast on Friday morning. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Johnte.

A large WSW groundswell combined with strong northerly winds will have some positive effects on parts of the Victorian coast on Friday morning. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Johnte.

Western Australia
It’s all about Saturday morning this weekend, but if you have the time up your sleeve then Friday afternoon could also be well worth your while. The onset of a very wintery round of SSW groundswell over the next 48 hours should initially lend the focus to sheltered breaks on Friday. The peak of this event is projected to take place on Friday arvo under SSE winds, but there’s little doubt there will still be some serious size on offer as winds turn light ENE on Saturday morning. This will, in all likelihood, see big, clean paddle and tow options across the Southwest all morning – and it looks like it will remain very surfable into the afternoon. Although winds will gradually turn north to west, they’re looking very light, so it’s shaping up a full day of great conditions across the Southwest and well worth making the most of before winds swing back to the SW on Sunday.

Friday
Large SSW groundswell continues under strong onshore winds. South West: Windblown 8 to 12ft across exposed breaks, speculatively peaking at 10 to 12ft+ during the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: Messy 3 to 4ft. WIND: SSW 20 to 30 knots early, tending S and easing during the day, then SSE 10 to 15 knots later.

Saturday
Heavy SSW groundswell slowly eases under light offshore winds. South West: Potential for clean 8 to 12ft sets across exposed breaks early, settling to 6 to 10ft during the afternoon. Bigger on the offshore reefs. Perth, Mandurah: Clean around 2 to 4ft depending on location. WIND: Early ENE 10 to 15 knots tending NE during the day, then light NW to WNW later.

Sunday
Easing SW groundswell hampered by freshening SW winds. South West coast: Junky 4 to 6ft+ sets exposed breaks, easing later. Perth/ Mandurah: Around 2ft exposed beaches, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: WSW to SW 10 to 15 knots early, tending SSW and freshening during the afternoon.

It's been a long time between clean big wave drinks across the Southwest. This Saturday is shaping up as one such day. Photo: Dan Wyer.

It's been a long time between clean big wave drinks across the Southwest. This Saturday is shaping up as one such day. Photo: Dan Wyer.

South Australia
Like Victoria, South Oz also benefits from a large SW groundswell under predominant westerly winds this weekend. That probably means powerful/ fun waves for days – both across the Mid Coast and the South Coast as this event peaks throughout Saturday arvo through Sunday morning.

Friday
SW groundswell holds around 3 to 5ft Waits and Parsons, grading to 2 to 4ft around Middleton. Mid Coast: Junky 1 to 2ft. WIND: NNW 15 to 20 knots, tending WNW to W and increasing in the late afternoon.

Saturday
Large, stormy SW groundswell filling in under strong onshore WSW/ SW winds. South Coast: Stormy 4 to 6ft+ at Waits and Parsons. Grading to 3 to 5ft around Middleton, probably undersized early. Mid Coast: Up to 2 to 3ft. WIND: Early WSW 20 to 35 knots, tending SW during the day and easing later.

 

Sunday
Still large SSW groundswell slowly eases. South Coast: Wind-affected 5 to 6ft+ at Waits and Parsons, settling to 4 to 6ft later. Grading 3 to 5ft+ at Middleton, easing into the afternoon. Mid Coast: Around 1 to 2ft. WIND: W to SW 10 to 15 knots, tending WNW later.

A large round of SW groundswell will offer up some good if not great moments across the South Coast this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Tony Palmer.

A large round of SW groundswell will offer up some good if not great moments across the South Coast this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Tony Palmer.


Tags: Weekend Surf Forecast , Ben Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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