Weekend Surf Forecast 5 - 7 July 2019
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
The winter solstice has come and gone and the daylight is very gradually starting to grow with each day – but winter it remains. That means more in the way of cold winds, cool or straight up freezing water temps and, for the most part, consistent surf wherever you look. In the wake of an epic few days of Easterly swell across southern Queensland and the entire NSW coast, we have another push in easterly swell inbound throughout Friday and the weekend. This time around it arrives under less-than-ideal winds, but conditions will gradually come good across Sydney and the South Coast as the weekend progresses.
You could do worse than find yourself somewhere along an exposed Victorian or South Australian coast this weekend. The presence of a large, slow moving Tasman high supports an ideal north-easterly wind-regime across both states; opening up vast stretches of good surf for several days. As has been the trend so far this winter, surfing conditions along the West Coast – or more specifically the Southwest - remain under the thumb of a relentless winter pattern; characterised by fresh onshore westerly quarter winds and large, overlapping WSW to SW groundswells all weekend.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
Following Monday and Tuesday’s idyllic ENE groundswell and offshore winds, the harsh reality of fresh onshore winds left us with far less appealing surfing options on Wednesday and Thursday. The good news is conditions will gradually become more accessible over the next few days. A new pulse of Easterly swell is due to fill in at either side of 4ft on Friday; albeit under still moderate onshore easterly winds. It won’t be until the weekend that winds will finally drop off and swing back out to sea; opening up cleaner leftover Easterly swell across the region both on Saturday and Sunday.
Reinforcing Easterly groundswell fills in, ranging from 3 to 5ft exposed open breaks with long waits between the larger sets. Mixing with underlying South swell at lower levels elsewhere and easing in the afternoon. WIND: Easterly 10 to 15 knots, tending ENE in the late afternoon/ evening.
Slow easing Easterly groundswell mixing with slight SSE windswell. Inconsistent sets up to 3 to 4ft exposed open beaches early, more like 2 to 3ft+ across the majority and easing in the afternoon. WIND: Variable NW to North, NNE 5 to 10 knots, tending NE to ENE 5 to 15 knots.
Long range Easterly swell and slight SE windswell hang in at a slow 2 to 3ft across exposed open beaches, inconsistent in the upper range and grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: WNW to NW 5 to 15 knots, tending North to NNE around 10 to 12 knots in the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
It’s probably safe to assume the best of the early July Easterly swell has come and gone, but that doesn’t mean its over. We’re now entering the final stages of this event as a second, longer-range pulse of easterly groundswell crosses over with a more localised, shorter-period increase in SE to ESE swell. While this should provide a solid boost to surf-heights across the region over the next few days, it’s worth keeping in mind it may not have the same quality as what we saw earlier in the week. That’s because the new, shorter-period energy out of the SE won’t wrap as efficiently – and the winds will be stronger out of the SE and ESE, thereby adding more sea-state and wobble to into the mix. Nit-picking aside, there’s still no shortage of pumping surf on tap this weekend, so make hay while it lasts.
Shorter period ESE swell mixing with long-range Easterly groundswell. Sets up to 5 to 7ft+ exposed open coasts, wrapping at anywhere from 3 to 5ft along the points and into bays with size depending on exposure. WIND: SE to ESE 15 to 25 knots.
Large ESE swell combined with underlying Easterly groundswell slowly ease. Ranging from 5 to 6ft+ across the most exposed open coasts, grading 3 to 5ft along the points and inside the bays with size depending on exposure. WIND: Scope for early limited SW to SSW inshore, otherwise ESE 15 to 20 knots, easing in the afternoon.
Easing ESE swell ranging from 4 to 5ft+ exposed open coasts early, settling during the day. Wrapping at 3 to 4ft+ along the points and into bays with size depending on exposure. Easing marginally through the afternoon. WIND: Light SW to Southerly inshore, tending ESE, Easterly 10 to 15 knots.
There are good, even great conditions lining up for Victoria’s exposed coasts over the next few days. A slow-moving Tasman High maintains light to moderate NNE to NE winds across the state; ideally suited to just about every exposed Victorian coast. At the same time there’s plenty of small to mid-sized SW and WSW groundswell inbound; enough to keep surfing options open for three straight days, before a westerly change finally arrives on Monday.
Easing SW groundswell under offshore winds. Up to 3 to 4ft along the exposed beaches early, settling in the afternoon. Wrapping at 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast, settling in the afternoon. WIND: NE around 5 to 15 knots, tending ENE in the arvo.
Reinforcing SW groundswell slowly eases. Sets ranging from a clean 2 to 4ft along the exposed beaches, inconsistent in the upper range. Wrapping at a slow, wind-affected 2ft+ on the Surf Coast reefs, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: NNE to NE 10 to 15 knots.
New WSW groundswell fills in at about 3 to 4ft along exposed beaches, wrapping at a slower 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs and grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: NNE 15 to 20 knots, tending Northerly in the afternoon.
While not quite as inclement as some recent weekend’s have been this winter, there’s still little respite from the onshores in sight across the Southwest. Latest model guidance shows a succession of moderate-strength frontal lows lining up with the region over the coming days; the first extending a broad cold front across the coast later on Thursday, leading in strong south-westerlies across the coast on Friday. That leads in a still robust westerly flow throughout Saturday, ahead of pre-frontal strengthening from the northwest on Sunday. And as per usual, there’s no shortage of swell: probably not hitting the very elevated levels seen in recent weeks, but still enough to lend the focus to the sheltered nooks and crannies for days to come.
Larger SW groundswell arrives under fresh onshore winds. Southwest: Around 6 to 8ft along exposed breaks, rising to 8 to 10ft+ in the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Around 3 to 4ft+. WIND: SSW to SW 15 to 25 knots, tending SW later.
Easing SW groundswell settles under moderating onshore winds. South West: Windblown sets ranging from 8 to 10ft+ across exposed breaks, settling to 6 to 8ft+ during the arvo. Perth/Mandurah: Sets in the 1 to 2ft range. WIND: WSW 15 to 25 knots, tending West in the afternoon.
Easing SW swell combines with Westerly windswell under fresh onshore winds. Southwest: Increasing sets 4 to 6ft+ along exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. Perth: Around 2ft+, picking up in the arvo. WIND: WNW to NW 15 to 25 knots, freshening to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon.
When a high pressure system resides over the Tasmania and the southern Tasman Sea it usually has great implications for surfing conditions across South Australia. That precisely what’s happening over the next few days as just such a favourably positioned high maintains a broad ridge across the state, supporting two more full days of straight offshore NNE winds across south-facing breaks on Friday and Saturday. Both days coincide with moderate levels of SSW and WSW groundswell – and there should still be something to be had on Sunday morning while early NNW winds precede a shift to the west in the afternoon.
Small, reinforcing SSW groundswell arrives under offshore winds. South Coast: Slower sets around 3 to 4ft around Waits and Parsons, grading to 2 to 3ft around Middleton, fading later. Mid Coast: WSW swell up to 1 to 2ft+. WIND: NNE to NE 10 to 20 knots.
Potential for new WSW groundswell slowly picking up under nor’westerly winds. South Coast: Slower sets up to 2ft+ at Waits and Parsons, building a foot or so in the arvo. Grading to an inconsistent 1 to 2ft around Middleton. Mid Coast: 0.5ft. WIND: NE 15 to 25 knots, tending NNE in the late afternoon.
Long range SW groundswell slowly eases under nor-west winds. South Coast: Clean 3 to 4ft+ at Waits and Parsons, wrapping at slower 2ft+ at Middleton, picking up in the arvo. Mid Coast: Around 1 to 2ft. WIND: NNW, NW 10 to 15 knots, turning Westerly during the afternoon.
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