Indo Forecast Thurs 8 April 2010

8 Apr 2010 0 Share

Short Forecast

Friday
SSW swell 2 - 3ft exposed coasts, bumping up into the afternoon. WIND: SE 10 – 20 knots.

Saturday
New SSW swell 3ft+ exposed coasts,. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 5 – 15 knots.

Sunday:
SSW swell 2 - 4ft exposed coasts. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 5 – 15 knots.

Monday:
New SW groundswell building from 2 - 4ft to 3 – 5ft exposed coasts, easing. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 5 – 15 knots.

Tuesday
SSW swell 3 - 5ft exposed coasts, easing into the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 5 – 15 knots.

Wednesday
SSW swell 3 – 4ft exposed coasts. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 5 – 10 knots.

Forecast Overview
A gradual easing trend in SSW swell this week levelled off around the two to three feet across exposed coasts on Wednesday and Thursday. A slightly stronger pulse of mid period SSW swell sees more consistent three foot sets developing across the region on Friday.

Persistent levels of low scale SSW swell are the by-product of a relatively subdued Southern Ocean storm track through the first days of April, characterised by a string of relatively small low pressure systems traversing the Southern Ocean.

On Saturday 3 and Sunday 4 a significant extratropical low developed beneath South Africa, generating a powerful belt of strong SW gales across the region throughout the weekend;

BOM MSLP
Source BOM. A deep low formed beneath South Africa last weekend, generating a strong pulse of SW groundswell inbound on Monday 12 and Tuesday 13 April.

The wind-fetch endured long enough to whip up a large deepwater swell, spreading out across the Indian Ocean early this week. A resulting SW groundswell is now inbound across the central Indian Ocean. The leading edge of the swell’s passage is captured by WW3, picking up leading forerunners exhibiting peak wave periods of 16 to 18 seconds;

BOM
Source NOAA; WW3 picks up the leading edge of a new SW groundswell crossing the central Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. Leading forerunners are due to make landfall during Sunday ahead of the bulk of SW groundswell filling in on Monday and Tuesday.

The low weakened quite rapidly as it tracked out into the south-western Indian Ocean on Sunday 4 and Monday 5; limiting the duration of the wind-fetch to about 72 hours. This will limit the size of this episode to about three to five feet as it reaches a peak throughout the afternoon of Monday12 and the morning of Tuesday 13.

The swell should ease into Wednesday 14 ahead of a smaller, reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell arriving on Thursday 15. This originates from another large, albeit slightly less intense extratropical low that fired up beneath South Africa between Monday 5 and Wednesday 7 April. The duration of the resulting SW fetch was similarly limited to 48 to 72 hours, so the resulting groundswell will only be fleeting; sustaining mid range surf across the region on Friday 16.

Long Range
By Friday 9 we begin to see a couple of new swell sources developing; a first low centred south-east of Heard Island tracks fairly swiftly eastward along the Antarctic coast on Saturday, aiming a broad area of gale force SW winds at the Archipelago. This is compounded by the evolution of amid latitude, frontal low spinning off the parent storm over the weekend.

The low is projected to set up just off Australia’s southwest coast on Sunday 11, sustaining a strong belt of SSW gales at Java and Bali throughout Monday 12. A subsequent rising trend in SSW groundswell should become evident across the region around Saturday 17, reaching a peak in size through Sunday 18.

At the same time we have another deep extratropical low developing beneath Africa on Friday 9 tracking out across the southern Indian Ocean this weekend. The storm is projected to fall under the suppressing influence of a strong high building across the central Indian Ocean; limiting the systems impact on our swell window.

However, the low is projected to generate a very long, gale to storm force zonal fetch across the Southern Ocean throughout the weekend, speculatively setting up a long period SSW groundswell filling in back to back with the first, aforementioned pulse into Monday 19/ Tuesday 20. The long range forecast is subject to low reliability.

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