Never Ending Winter Swell: Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast October 6 - October 16, 2015

6 Oct 2015 0 Share

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 6 October, 2015 by Matthew McKay

SHORT FORECAST
Well what a difference a few days can make. Last week, I mentioned that the late season run of swell may be on its last legs. This is certainly NOT the case. A reactivation of the infamous Southern Ocean storm track is set to deliver a sustained run of great conditions across the region. Multiple SW to SSW swell trains are forecast to propagate toward the Indonesian coastline over the following forecast period.

The solid SW swell that is currently gracing our shores will hang around for a few more days. This wave energy is then expected to dissipate from Friday through to Sunday morning before a reinforcement in wave heights by Sunday afternoon. This rejuvenation in wave energy should provide surfers with a sustained run of great waves between 3 and 6ft throughout the all of next week. Beyond this, there is plenty more swell on the horizon for the Indonesian Archipelago as an active long wave trough continues to push storms into our swell window.

The combination of pumping waves and warm waters is every surfers dream, and that’s exactly what Indonesia will be providing over the next fortnight. Photo: Coastalwatch

The combination of pumping waves and warm waters is every surfers dream, and that’s exactly what Indonesia will be providing over the next fortnight. Photo: Coastalwatch

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday October 7
Solid SSW swell. 5-6ft+ at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Thursday October 8
Solid SSW swell. 5-6ft+ at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Friday October 9
Fading SSW swell. 4-6ft early easing to 4-5ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 10-15 knots.

Saturday October 10
Fun SW swell. 2-4ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 10-15 knots.

Sunday October 11
Mid-period SSW swell with underlying long period SW groundswell. 2-4ft at exposed breaks with larger sets possible by the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 10-15 knots.

Monday October 12
SW groundswell. 5-6ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Tuesday October 13
Easing SW groundswell. 3-4ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Latest WaveTracker model run showing wave heights in excess of 30ft in the Southern Indian Ocean, resulting in solid waves throughout the rest of this week.

Latest WaveTracker model run showing wave heights in excess of 30ft in the Southern Indian Ocean, resulting in solid waves throughout the rest of this week.

OVERVIEW
Surfers along the Indonesian coastline continue to reap the rewards of an extended run of SW/ SSW swell. Whilst the start of October proved to be relatively small, great waves have been offer ever since. A complex storm system with two central cores migrated into our swell window late last week. A strong pressure gradient developed to the west of this low; consequently leading to a broad fetch of sustained SW winds in excess of 35 knots. Whilst these winds weren’t overly strong, the slow movement of this storm effectively resulted in a strong round of SSW groundswell. A peak in wave energy occurred on Sunday October 4; with reported 8ft+ sets at the exposed outer reefs. This swell continued to pulse in the 6-7ft range on Monday before easing back to 5-6ft+ on Tuesday.

As mentioned in the short forecast, wave heights in the 5-6ft+ range will perpetuate over the next 3 days. There are two swell sources that are working in unison to sustain these wave heights. Firstly, as the aforementioned low sweeps below Australia, the winds on the western side of the storm will realign to aim a fetch of SSW winds at our coastline. The second source of swell proceeds this first storm. Current model guidance is indicative of the development of a narrow band of winds in excess of 45+ knots located at 50S, 65E; generating significant wave heights in the 30ft range in the far southern Indian Ocean (see Wave Tracker image). As this storm tracks east/ north-east, it is expected to weaken and become more zonal in nature; thus resulting in a decrease in wave heights throughout Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, we will see a leftover SSW swell being reinforced by a new batch of SW groundswell thanks to yet another low-pressure system. This storm is quite large but isn’t expected to advance northwards due to an impressive band of high pressure situated within the mid-latitudes. Whilst this high-pressure system will effectively push the bulk of the generated swell eastward, a refracted SW groundswell will still influence the region; pushing surf heights back up into the 5-6ft range by Monday morning. By Tuesday October 13, wave heights are forecast to fall back to the 3 to 4-foot range as this system tracks east. 

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show the current a sustained run of epic conditions throughout the next week.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show the current a sustained run of epic conditions throughout the next week.

LONG RANGE
At this stage Wednesday October 14 is set to be a carbon copy of the previous day. Beyond this we are likely to see another pulse of SW groundswell by late Thursday October 15. The long range model guidance is suggestive of a stronger SW swell making its presence felt by Friday October 16, speculatively producing waves of between 5 and 8 feet.

Looking further ahead, the Latest GFS and WaveWatch III model run are projecting that the active long wave cycle is set to continue; meaning that it’s possible that this everlasting late season swell may continue into early November. It is important to note that due to the long range nature of this forecast there is obvious divergence amongst global weather and wave models so please check back next week for an update. In the meantime, make the most of the next 10 days.

Tags: indo , bali , forecast (create Alert from these tags)

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