Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 5 - 15 October, 2016

4 Oct 2016 0

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

BALI, INDO SURF FORECAST | Presented by Nomad Surfers

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 4 October, 2016

Where has everyone gone? That’s the question surfers ask when they turn up at suddenly uncrowded breaks throughout Indonesia in October. With the peak-season crowds having come and gone, this month offers up a great opportunity for uncrowded perfection throughout The Archipelago. With a much lighter wind-regime now in place across the region, expect consecutive days of small to mid-sized surf, with glassy to slightly textured surface quality, producing full days of surfable conditions across all exposed breaks.

SEE ALSO: Jim Banks On The Perfect Indo Quiver

Empty linups abound across Indonesia through the month of October. Photo: Georgia Fish.

Empty linups abound across Indonesia through the month of October. Photo: Georgia Fish.

Short Forecast

A series of small to mid-range SSW swells maintain fun-sized surf throughout Indonesia; mostly ranging from 2 to 4ft across exposed breaks into the middle of October. Expect a pattern of early light and variable winds tending to light SE/SSE during the afternoons throughout the outlook period.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 5
Easing SSW groundswell. Sets around 3 - 4ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday 6
Leftover SSW swell. Ranging from 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, easing later. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.

Friday 7
Small-scale SSW swell. Ranging from 1 – 3ft exposed breaks, inconsistent in the upper range. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE to SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 8
New SSW groundswell. Sets to 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, easing later. New SSW groundswell bumps up during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable.

Sunday 9
SSW groundswell. Around 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 5 to 10 knots.

Monday 10
Small-scale SSW swell. Sets to 2 – 3ft exposed breaks, possibly bumping up during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE around 10 knots.

Latest virtual buoy data for Bali shows a short-term easing trend preceding the onset of a new, mid-sized SSW groundswell this weekend.

Latest virtual buoy data for Bali shows a short-term easing trend preceding the onset of a new, mid-sized SSW groundswell this weekend.

Overview

A solid round of SSW groundswell lit up the Archipelago on Monday before easing to more accessible levels by Tuesday; still ranging from 4 to 6ft across the more exposed breaks under light and variable winds. A continued easing trend in SSW follows throughout the remainder of the working week; initially still hanging in around the 3 to 4ft mark on Wednesday before scaling down another notch into the 2 to 3ft range by Thursday. Friday then marks an interim low-point in wave energy; hovering around 2ft across exposed breaks preceding the onset of a new, fairly modest pulse of SSW groundswell this weekend.

The origin is a large, complex polar low that migrated across the far southern Indian Ocean over the weekend, setting up an expansive, zonal (westerly) fetch throughout latitudes bounded by 40S and 55S. Although associated wind-speeds were mostly clocked at 30 to 35 knots, the extended duration of these winds was enough to produce a respectable pulse of mid-period SSW groundswell. The leading edge of this energy begins to show at low-levels on Friday ahead of the bulk of swell arriving on Saturday and Sunday. This should see surf ranging either side of 3ft across exposed breaks on both days, with slightly smaller leftovers still running in the 2 to 3ft range on Monday.

Long Range

Tuesday then marks the arrival of a new round of reinforcing SSW swell – again exhibiting modest heights and relatively short peak periods in the 12 to 14 second band. This arises from a new polar low forecast to develop south-west of the Kerguelen Islands over the next few days. The low initially establishes a modest WSW fetch in conjunction with a high pressure system anchored south of Madagascar on Wednesday, before setting up a more substantial SSW fetch as it feeds into a broader low pressure complex on the verge of Western Australian longitudes. This will see a broader area of SSW winds aligning directly with Indonesia on Thursday and Friday, giving rise to a mid-period SSW pulse; speculatively peaking in the 3 to 5ft range across exposed breaks on Tuesday 11 and Wednesday 12 October.

Beyond that, longer-range computer modelling picks up renewed storm-activity becoming established across the south-western Indian Ocean this weekend. This features a series of vigorous polar fronts migrating below South Africa and Madagascar; variously generating a series of small to mid-sized pulses of SW groundswell for Indonesian coasts between 15 and 20 October. At this early stage the specifics on these pulses are still unclear, so check back next week for clarification.



Tags: surf , forecast , indo , ben , macartney (create Alert from these tags)

blog comments powered by Disqus
More From Indo Forecast
Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 1 - 13 November, 2017

Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 1 - 13 November, 2017

Now's the time to score the last of the late season swells!

1 31 Oct 2017
Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 25 October - 5 November, 2017

Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 25 October - 5 November, 2017

Late season in Indonesia is set to light up under back to back SSW groundswells.

0 24 Oct 2017
Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 18 - 31 October, 2017

Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 18 - 31 October, 2017

The transition to the wet season is underway, but that doesn't preclude large SSW groundswell arriving across Indonesia through late October.

0 17 Oct 2017
Recent

Someone's Taking Home A Brand New Chilli Surfboard!

The third winner announced for 7 Boards, 7 Weeks! Join Coastalwatch Plus to enter now

0 24 Nov 2017
Video: Firing Gold Coast Points This Week

Video: Firing Gold Coast Points This Week

0 24 Nov 2017
The WSL Is Going Back To Bali, Ditching Fiji & Trestles

The WSL Is Going Back To Bali, Ditching Fiji & Trestles

7 21 Nov 2017
WSL Announce Wave Pool For 2018 Championship Tour

WSL Announce Wave Pool For 2018 Championship Tour

3 18 Nov 2017
Look Who Just Scored A New Jye Byrnes Anchovy...

Look Who Just Scored A New Jye Byrnes Anchovy...

0 17 Nov 2017
Latest News

Someone's Taking Home A Brand New Chilli Surfboard!

The third winner announced for 7 Boards, 7 Weeks! Join Coastalwatch Plus to enter now

Video: Firing Gold Coast Points This Week

It's a standout session; tubes and tubes and tubes

The WSL Is Going Back To Bali, Ditching Fiji & Trestles

The WSL has released the 2018 schedule and, oh gee, are there some changes!

Look Who Just Scored A New Jye Byrnes Anchovy...

Our second winner announced for 7 Boards, 7 Weeks! Join Coastalwatch Plus to enter now

Popular This Week

Swell Blog: Monday Fires up On The Gold Coast

Here's the update from Chief Forecaster Ben Macartney on the swell event for the Gold Coast & Northern NSW

Swell Recap: After 48 Hours, We Look To The Horizon

Chief Forecaster Ben Macartney wraps up two days of groundswell, with a fresh outlook for weeks end.

Nick Carroll On: Embrace The Artifice!

A CT at the Ranch could change the whole game – if they let it

The WSL Is Going Back To Bali, Ditching Fiji & Trestles

The WSL has released the 2018 schedule and, oh gee, are there some changes!

Weak Wrap: You're Allowed to Surf Naked and Name Secret Spots Now

Plus other surf things explained in a 2 minute video by a man in a suit.

Go to Top