Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 6 - 12 June, 2018

6 Jun 2018 0 Share

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 5 June 2018

Indian Ocean swell activity slows down in the short term but looks like larger S and SW groundswells start to line up again over the long range. Waves turn small over the next couple days but then a fair mid period SSW swell is due for the WSL’s Uluwatu waiting period, 8-11 June, which will finish off the remaining heats from the Margaret River Pro Event. 

We see slow moving high pressure system occupying the central Indian Ocean that means storm activity is restricted from two extremes. Either nearby southerly swells generated off the coast of central WA or long range distant SW sets from long period deepwater swells generated under Africa and Madagascar. 


Forecast holds increased trades and steady midperiod SSW swell lines. Photo by Georde Grigor

Forecast holds increased trades and steady midperiod SSW swell lines. Photo by Georde Grigor

Summary

Wednesday 6
SW groundswell eases with light winds. Decreasing 3 to 4ft sets across open breaks, with size grading smaller elsewhere, depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 10 knots during the afternoon.

Thursday 7
SW swell continues modest and slow. Sets hold in the 2 to 3ft exposed breaks, with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 10 knots during the afternoon.

Friday 8
New mid period SSW groundswell fills in. Starting to pick up around 3 to 5ft exposed breaks, increasing 6ft sets through the day. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 10 knots in afternoon.

Saturday 9
Increased mid period SSW swell peaks while trades strengthen. Picking up steady 4 to 6ft with possible larger size on south exposed breaks, grading smaller in protected areas. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots, tending SE 15 to 20 knots in afternoon. 

Sunday 10
Mid period SSW groundswell holds early with strong tradewinds. Continued 4 to 6ft+ sets across exposed breaks early, grading smaller 3 to 5ft through the day. Size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 15 to 20 knots, tending SE in afternoon. 

Monday 11
New deepwater long period SW groundswell arrives gradually. Old SSW swell showing 3 to 4ft waves early and new rising deepwater forerunner sets occasionally increasing 6ft+ sets through the later day. WIND: ESE 15 to 20 knots, tending SE in the afternoon. 

Tuesday 12
Long period new deepwater SSW groundswell. Picking up larger 6 to occasionally 8ft surf, inconsistent with lulls expected. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots.


Overview

We see a high pressure system set up in the central Indian Ocean Basin, which has lead to a decreased storm productivity and background low level SW swell and average to small surf through the short term. A modest SSW groundswell from Tuesday will decrease and drop out Wednesday and leave only residual surf through Thursday, however, during this time winds are projected fair and light. 

Trades will strengthen and show strong ESE wind flow over the weekend along with a new mid period SSW swell filling in. This new swell is linked to a vigorous polar low that moved into a S'ly alignment of Indo while positioned near WA Monday. The storm fetch had close proximity and was able to project a mid period swell event with arrival due to build on Friday, 9 June and continue Saturday, 10 June before dropping on Sunday. The steady SSW waves also give some favourable days to run the WSL event at Uluwatu.

There is another chance of deepwater long period waves to appear at the tail end of the WSL waiting period next Monday. A new SW groundswell will be generated under South Africa this week and strengthen under Madagascar. This distant storm pushes out some 18 second+ swell period with a 6-7 day travel time to trek across the Indian Ocean basin. Look for an early arrival of forerunners slowly building next Monday, 11 June and peak under better conditions Tuesday, 12 June.

CW Bali Virtual Buoy for the week ahead

CW Bali Virtual Buoy for the week ahead

Long Range

An active jet stream under South Africa will continue to fuel more polar storm activity into the southwest Indian Ocean over the long range forecast. After Tuesday’s swell, we can expect a few days of slightly subdued surf before another solid polar low will take place and ignite a secondary run of deepwater but distant long range SW swell around the 17-18th June. Again, with a longer travel time, this will take some time but we could see overlapping sets pick up and continue solid surf across the middle of the month. Stay tuned.


The SSW swell due over the WSL Ulu event came from a polar low extending a front all along the WA coast. Source: BOM

The SSW swell due over the WSL Ulu event came from a polar low extending a front all along the WA coast. Source: BOM



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