Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 12 - 30 June, 2019
Forecast Issued Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Wizened old Western Australian surfs know it. Hell, even the kids know it these days: when it gets up to a stormy 12 to 15ft under gale-force onshore winds across the Margaret River region, Indonesia will pumping shortly thereafter.
And as I write, that’s exactly what’s happening. The premier, west facing Indonesian reefs are lighting up in the 6 to 10ft range under moderate south-easterly trades – and that’s not to mention the entire Mentawai chain that’s also primed to benefit from the same swell, albeit from a more southerly direction, throughout the remainder of this week and into the weekend.
The entire archipelago is officially on the pump – and it’s set to stay that way for days to come, so if it’s big surf you want, it’s big surf you’ll get across Indonesia into the middle of June – and going on long-range charts there’s plenty more to come towards the end of the month.
Large SSW groundswell from 200 degrees slowly abates. Large sets up to 6 to 8ft+ exposed breaks, easing to 5 to 8ft in the afternoon. Wrapping at lower levels inside more sheltered breaks with size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Reinforcing SSW groundswell from 200 degrees builds in. Solid sets up 6 to 8ft along exposed breaks, wrapping at anywhere from 3 to 6ft less exposed areas with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
SSW groundswell from 200 degrees continues. Well overhead sets up to 5 to 6ft+ along exposed breaks, slowly settling in the arvo. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 10 to 15 knots.
Easing SSW groundswell from 200 degrees. Slow sets up to a clean 4 to 5ft+ across the most exposed breaks, settling to 3 to 4ft in the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Small SSW groundswell hangs in an inconsistent 2 to 3ft+ exposed breaks, inconsistent in the upper range. Building to 3 to 4ft+ in the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 15 knots.
Scope for stronger SSW groundswell building throughout the day. Speculatively 3 to 4ft+ exposed breaks early, rising to 4 to 6ft the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.
Short Term Overview
Tuesday marked the first in a series of powerful, well overhead surf-days across Indonesia. As discussed in last week’s forecast, this activity is the knock on effect of a sustained period of heightened storm-activity throughout Western Australian longitudes; directly inside Indonesia’s south swell window over the past week. This activity featured a succession of vigorous frontal lows tracking north to northeast along the eastern periphery of a slow-moving sub-tropical high anchored over the south-central Indian Ocean.
The end result was several strong South to SSW fetch-areas exhibiting speeds of 30 to 50 knots, setting up within relatively close range of Indonesia throughout Friday and the weekend, followed by a second burst of southerly gales becoming established on Sunday and Monday. This sees a steady run of sizeable SSW groundswell arriving out of a very southerly directional band just either side of 200 degrees for the remainder of the week; fluctuating around the 6 to 8ft+ range from Tuesday to Thursday, before gradually settling to more manageable levels on Friday 14th and the weekend of Saturday 15th.
It looks like the good surfing times will keep rolling across Indonesia into the second half of June. The key models are now zeroing in on another significant source of SSW groundswell for the Archipelago mid to late next week. The source of this event is a complex, broadscale Southern Ocean low that’s forecast to gradually coalesce below Madagascar on Wednesday and Thursday, before steadily intensifying as it migrates eastward across Indonesia’s long-range swell window throughout Friday and the weekend. The system is widely projected to carry an expansive WSW to SW fetch across the Southern Ocean over this time frame; loosely exhibiting core wind-speeds around 40 knots.
Given there’s pretty tight agreement among the key models, there’s better than average chances the system will give rise to peak seas and swell in the 35 to 40ft realm, deep below Indonesian longitudes this weekend. That all points to another large, long -period SSW groundswell travelling north of the source early next week; speculatively building in across Bali and surrounding islands throughout Wednesday 19th, ahead of a peak in size occurring on Thursday 20th. At this early stage this is looking similar to the current episode; holding potential for 6 to 10ft sets across the more exposed breaks, ahead of a slow easing trend setting in throughout Friday 21st and Saturday 22nd.
In the wake of this activity, longer term GFS runs pick up a couple of smaller, but still vigorous mid-latitude lows tracking through Indonesia’s south-swell window between Sunday 16th and Tuesday 18th; speculatively setting up a series of smaller, but still substantial pulses of SSW groundswell for the region into the final week of June. Stay tuned for more on this in next week’s update.
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