Weekend Surf Forecast 12 - 14 August, 2016

11 Aug 2016 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | Weekend Surf Forecast

Forecast issued Thursday, 11 August 2016

There are haves and have-nots in the surf department this weekend. Those regions falling into the former category include all the southern states, with Victoria taking the prize for the best-place-to-be-surfing this weekend as a consistent run of WSW groundswell coincides with favourable WNW to NNW winds. Although the West Coast is also bombarded with powerful SW groundswell for days to come, moderate onshore winds will keep a lid on wave quality and aesthetic appeal all weekend. That of course, leaves the Eastern States as those regions in the latter category.

Southern Queensland coasts in particular, remain bereft of any notable swell beyond some weak 1ft dribble out of the ESE. The NSW coast fares marginally better under the influence of some small-scale south swell – potentially reaching a proper 2 to 3ft across Sydney and Newcastle on Friday before dwindling into the 1 to 2ft max range over the weekend.

Finally, in the absence of any amazing swell events and at the behest of the editor, I’m including a lame joke in the Weekend Forecast this week. It goes as follows:

What did the scalpel say to the infection? “I’m going to lance you”. “I don’t think so,” said the infection. “Really, I insist” said the scalpel.

If you have a similarly lame joke you think is worthy of publication, sent it through to benmac4cast@gmail.com and if it’s deemed the best it will be published here next week and you’ll be sent a free copy of the latest Surfing World magazine. 

There's the good, the bad and the ugly this weekend. Photo: CW plus user Edan.

There's the good, the bad and the ugly this weekend. Photo: CW plus user Edan.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
It’s now clear that the long-enduring winter days of solid, offshore surf has come to an end for the foreseeable future. In its place we’re looking at a return to pretty run-of-the-mill conditions characterised by small-scale southerly swell and light winds. Friday is shaping up as the pick of the bunch, with scope for 2 to 3ft sets across the most exposed southern exposures, preceding a drop in size to 1 to 2ft at best by Saturday morning.

Sunday then presents scope for another minor uptick in south swell – but going on latest model runs this isn’t expected to push too far beyond 1 to 2ft across south facing breaks all day.  The upside is a favourable, westerly quarter wind-regime is set to remain in place over the next few days, making for mostly clean conditions all weekend.

SEE ALSO: Share Your Surf Photos & Win A Fitbit & $1000 Surfstitch Gift Card 

Friday
Small and clean. Slight S swell. Sets ranging from 2 - 3ft south facing beaches early, fading during the afternoon. Grading to 1 - 2ft elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early W 5 to 15 knots, tending NW to N during the afternoon.

Saturday
Tiny and clean. Residual S swell. Slow 1 – 2ft max south facing beaches grading to near flat elsewhere. WIND: WNW 5 to 15 knots, tending WSW during the afternoon.

Sunday
Slight rise in S swell. Up to 1 - 2ft+ across south facing beaches. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early W tending light and variable, then E to NE 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon.

We're now a long way from the amazing conditions of early winter, with small-scale S swell on the menu all weekend. Photo: CW user Taylorve.

We're now a long way from the amazing conditions of early winter, with small-scale S swell on the menu all weekend. Photo: CW user Taylorve.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
Unlike most of the NSW coast, there is some light-on-the-surf-horizon over the outlook period; taking the form of a respectable upswing in easterly tradewind swell into the middle of next week. However, between now and then we’ll have to make do with a continued run of tiny or virtually flat conditions; comprised of a mix of S and SE windswells – for the most part not exceeding 1 to 2ft across northern NSW exposed breaks and grading to tiny or virtually flat across less exposed southern Queensland coasts.

SEE ALSO: Waves For Everyone On The Gold Coast Last Week

Friday
Slim pickings. Slight S swell. Sets around 1 - 2ft exposed northern NSW breaks. Residual ESE swell to 1ft+ across exposed southern QLD coasts, grading near flat inside the points and bays. WIND: Early SSW 10 to 15 knots tending SSE to SE 5 to 15 knots during the day.

Saturday
Most size found south of the border. S swell. Up to 1 – 2ft exposed northern NSW breaks, Mixing with slight ESE swell at 1ft+ across southern QLD coasts, virtually flat inside the points and bays. WIND: WNW 5 to 15 knots early, tending light NNE during the afternoon.

Sunday
SE windswell bumps up later. Mix of tiny ESE and SSE swells. Around 1 - 2ft northern NSW exposed breaks, grading to 1ft exposed QLD beaches, bumping up marginally during the afternoon. Effectively flat inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light WSW to SSW tending SSE 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Southern Queensland remains in the surf-dodrums this weekend, but there's a change for the better looming over the course of next week. Photo: CW user DKimber.

Southern Queensland remains in the surf-dodrums this weekend, but there's a change for the better looming over the course of next week. Photo: CW user DKimber.

Victoria
An active winter pattern remains in full-effect across Victoria this weekend; delivering consecutive days of WSW swell large enough to generate waves across all regions. Proceedings commence with an overnight drop in size by Friday morning; probably still ranging anywhere from 4 to 6ft in the upper range across exposed beaches – and this could see some good surfable options opening up as winds slant to the NNW and freshen during the day.  

Saturday sees a continued run of mid-period WSW swell – again offering up good conditions across a variety of regions – but by-and-large the Surf Coast will be the pick under a predominant WNW wind-regime. However, if you’re only planning to surf one day, Sunday is undoubtedly the pick. The arrival of a larger, longer period episode holds good potential for larger 4 to 5ft sets across the premier Torquay reefs – again groomed by straight offshore winds.

SEE ALSO: Sean Doherty On, The Sultanas Of The Single Fin

Friday
Good options abound. WSW groundswell. Sets to 4 – 5ft+ across exposed coasts. Grading to 2 - 3ft major Surf Coast reefs, smaller elsewhere. WIND: NW to NNW 10 to 20 knots, freshening during the afternoon.

Saturday
Clean across the Surf Coast. Mid period WSW swell. Ranging from 4 - 5ft across exposed beaches. Wrapping into Surf Coast breaks around 2- 3ft. WIND: WNW 10 to 20 knots.

Sunday
Cracking across the Surf Coast all day. New WSW groundswell peaks. Sets to 6 – 8ft across exposed coasts. Grading to 3 - 5ft across the major Surf Coast reefs, smaller elsewhere. WIND: WNW, 10 to 20 knots, easing later.

Just about every Victorian surfing region will have their moment in the sun this weekend. Photo: CW user Angryfish.

Just about every Victorian surfing region will have their moment in the sun this weekend. Photo: CW user Angryfish.

Western Australia
Onshore winds continue to loom as the thorn in the side of surfing conditions this weekend. On the upside, it won’t be entirely blown out across the Southwest over the next few days, with wind-speeds of 10 to 15 knots offering up junky, but still rideable options on Friday and Saturday.

As for Sunday, you’ll need to be onto it nice and early if you want to avoid the onset of a rejuvenated NW flow, freshening ahead of the next cold front approaching from the southwest during the day.

SEE ALSO: John John's Winter In Hawaii

Friday
Junky onshore. Rising SW groundswell fills in. Southwest coast: 5-7ft, rising with larger sets into the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: Clean 1-2ft, rising with larger sets late. SSW winds 10-15kts tending SW-WSW. Lighter SE - SW winds Perth/Mandurah.

Saturday
Lumpy and bumpy across exposed breaks. New mid sized SW groundswell holds size. Southwest coast: 6-8ft+. Perth/Mandurah: Clean 1-2ft, possible plus sets at exposed beaches. Variable wind 10kts, tending WNW.

Sunday
Small window early before onshores freshen. Mid sized SW swell eases slightly before rising late. Southwest coast: 6-8ft+. Perth/Mandurah: Clean 1-2ft before NW winds freshen. NW winds 25-30kts easing 25kts. NE to 10kts tending NW 20kts.

Opportunities for clean conditions look few and far between across the West Coast this weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

Opportunities for clean conditions look few and far between across the West Coast this weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

South Australia
Conditions aren’t looking too shabby across South Oz this weekend. An initial decline in WSW swell should see wave heights hovering 3ft across South Coast beaches on Friday and Saturday. It won’t be until Sunday that a stronger pulse of SW groundswell nudges set waves up to a stronger 3 to 4ft across the region, with WNW winds making for reasonably good surface quality all day.

Friday
Small and clean all day. Fading SW swell. 2-3ft across the exposed beaches. Grading to 1ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: NNW 10-15 knots tending NW 15-20 knots.

Saturday
Cross-shore fun. Mid period SW swell. 2-3ft+ across the exposed South Coast beaches. Grading to 0-1ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: WNW to W 5-15 knots.

Sunday
Excellent across southern exposures all day. New SW groundswell. 3-4ft+ across the exposed South Coast beaches. Grading to 1-2ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: WNW 10-15 knots.

A steady run of smaller-scale WSW swell on Friday and Saturday precedes a welcome boost in size on Sunday. Photo: CW user Jesse.

A steady run of smaller-scale WSW swell on Friday and Saturday precedes a welcome boost in size on Sunday. Photo: CW user Jesse.

Tags: weekend , surf , forecast , ben , macartney , australia (create Alert from these tags)

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