Weekend Surf Forecast 28 - 30 October, 2016

27 Oct 2016 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | Weekend Surf Forecast

Forecast issued Thursday, 27 October 2016

If onshore winds are the bane of every surfer’s existence, it’s fair to say there will be a lot of unhappy punters moping about around the coastal fringes this weekend. Both the East and West coasts are plagued by persistent onshores that, by and large, offer minimal appeal to conditions for several days to come. Of course, there are always exceptions to such broad-sweeping generalisations.

Across the NSW coast a strengthening ENE airflow will render conditions poor to downright ugly throughout Friday and Saturday – but come Sunday a shift to the NNE should start to open up some reasonable options inside sheltered northern corners. Further up the coast, a NNE wind-regime conspires with diminutive levels of ESE and NE swell to make for plenty of downtime across southern Queensland.  The only real exceptions are found across the southern states of SA and Victoria, where light and variable winds will offer up clean conditions on Friday, ahead of lighter offshore north-easterlies on Sunday.

SEE ALSO: The Ultimate Guide To Buying A Step-Up Board

Summer is just around the corner. Photo: CW user LJM57.

Summer is just around the corner. Photo: CW user LJM57.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
If you like mixing it up between surfing and kiteboarding or sailboarding, then the outlook for this weekend may hold some appeal. Otherwise, you might not be quite as enamoured by what’s shaping up as a series of onshore-wind dominated days. This pattern sets up in response to a quasi-stationary surface trough interacting with an emerging high pressure system building out into the southern Tasman Sea; together establishing a moderate to strong onshore easterly airflow across the region on Friday and Saturday. It won’t be until Sunday that the further eastward migration of the high facilitates a straighter N to NE wind-regime; and this will offer up better options inside sheltered northern corners as NE windswell picks up into the afternoon.

SEE ALSO: Jim Banks On Why Increasing Width Is Not Always A Good Idea

Friday
Not pretty early, turning ugly later. S swell. Sets to 2 – 3ft south facing breaks, gradually easing during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: SE 5 to 15 knots tending E and freshening to 15 to 25 knots.

Saturday
Junky and weak, muscling up later. Mix of leftover S swell and rising ENE windswell. Around 2ft+ open beaches early, bumping during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light ENE 5 to 15 knots tending NE 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.

Sunday
Consistent, lumpy fun, peaking late. NE windswell. Sets to 2 - 3ft+ exposed open beaches, building to 3 – 4ft during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early N 10 to 15 knots tending NE and freshening to 15 to 25 knots later.

A mix of small-scale swells offers little scope for big open tubes this weekend, but Sunday arvo still looks fun as NE windswell ramps up to solid levels. Photo: CW user Matty Williams.

A mix of small-scale swells offers little scope for big open tubes this weekend, but Sunday arvo still looks fun as NE windswell ramps up to solid levels. Photo: CW user Matty Williams.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
It’s hard to put a positive spin on conditions this weekend. The arrival of a tiny, long-range pulse of ESE swell over the next few days isn’t anticipated to push beyond the 1ft plus range across region – so you’d be well advised to be packing the most buoyant craft in your quiver. Friday sees a light to moderate northerly wind-regime dominating local conditions all day. Saturday morning then offers up a short window for clean conditions as early light offshore winds prevail, but they too will give way to north-easterlies during the day. A freshening NNE flow is then set to eradicate all options inside the points and bays – so it will be well worth heading for a sheltered northern corner.

SEE ALSO: Barrel Hunters At Dbah On Monday

Friday
Peak in junky ENE windswell. Background ESE swell and slight NE windswell. Around 1ft+ exposed breaks. Virtually flat inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light N to NW tending NNE 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday
Small to tiny and cleanest early. Background ESE swell and slight S swell. Around 1ft+ exposed breaks. Virtually flat inside the points and bays. WIND: Calm to light WSW inshore early, tending NE 10 to 15 knots later.

Sunday
Find a northern corner or forget about it. Tiny ESE and S swells, mixing with slight NE windswell during the afternoon. Up to 1ft exposed breaks. Virtually flat inside the points and bays. WIND: Early NNE 10 to 15 knots freshening to 15 to 25 knots later.

Surfing options are looking scarce across the region this weekend. Photo: CW user Penny Kempe.

Surfing options are looking scarce across the region this weekend. Photo: CW user Penny Kempe.

Victoria
It looks like just about every surfable stretch of Victorian coastline will have a moment in the sun this weekend. There’s enough swell in the water to generate good surf - sitting somewhere along the fun to challenging scale depending on where you paddle out. Periods of light and variable winds on Friday and early on Saturday should see pretty good options across exposed beaches, the Surf Coast and just about everywhere in between – but there will be enough swell in the water to make for plenty of paddling across the open breaks.

The swell keeps coming at solid levels throughout Saturday as early light winds start to blow light ENE during the day, so finding a more west facing coast holding the swell will be your best bet. You’ll need to make haste on Sunday morning to capitalise on good conditions across southern exposures an early northerly wind ramps up ahead of a west to south-westerly change moving through around midday.

SEE ALSO: 

Friday
Pretty good just about everywhere you look. SW groundswell. Solid 4 – 6ft+ exposed coasts early, easing towards 4 – 5ft+ during the afternoon. Sets to 3 – 4ft+ across the Surf Coast, easing during the day. WIND: Early light and variable tending to seabreezes during the afternoon.

Saturday
Cracking day favouring exposed stretches. Reinforcing SW swell. Around 4 – 6ft exposed coasts, grading to 2 – 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light and variable tending ENE 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday
Hit southern exposures early, the Surf Coast later. SW swell. Sets to 4 – 6ft exposed breaks, picking up during the late afternoon. Grading to 2 - 3ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: N 15 to 20 knots, shifting NW during the day then W 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.

Light and variable winds on Friday morning should see glassy conditions on offer across the state. Photo: CW user Grimance75.

Light and variable winds on Friday morning should see glassy conditions on offer across the state. Photo: CW user Grimance75.

Western Australia
Onshore winds persist as the thorn in the side of an otherwise pumping weekend of waves across the West Coast. A powerful round of SW groundswell inbound on Friday coincides with some brief respite in the westerly wind-regime; offering up a short-window of opportunity to get amongst some lumpy, but rideable chunks across the Southwest Coast. By Saturday, however, it’s back to strong onshore winds blowing out the majority of open breaks as another cold front clips the Southwest corner of the state. It won’t be until Sunday morning that a definitive SE shift in wind-direction opens up some cleaner options across the region – and this is set to lead in a similarly favourable early offshore wind-regime through the first half of next week.

Friday
Cracking all morning. Overlapping large SW swell builds sets through the afternoon. Southwest coast: 6-8ft rising 8-10 sets. Perth/Mandurah: 2ft. Light and variable wind early, tending WSW 10-15kt in afternoon.

Saturday
Onshore chunks. Peaking SW swell with onshore breeze. Southwest coast: textured 8-10ft+. Perth/Mandurah: 2-3ft. WSW winds 15-25kts, varying SW 10-15kts in Perth/Mandaruh.

Sunday
Clean and cranking early. Easing SW swell and decreasing S'ly breeze. Southwest coast: 6-8ft sets, fading into the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: 2ft. SE wind 10kts early, tending S to SW 10-15kt.

While the Southwest remains plagued by onshore winds, locations further north probably won't fare too badly this weekend. Photo: CW user Jackogrady.

While the Southwest remains plagued by onshore winds, locations further north probably won't fare too badly this weekend. Photo: CW user Jackogrady.

South Australia
It ain’t looking too shabby across SA over the next couple of days. Friday sees very light onshore winds adding some texture to an otherwise well-organised SW groundswell – making for a full day of good waves across the South Coast. Saturday then looms as the pick of the short term outlook as light to moderate north-easterly winds groom a still substantial SW swell ranging either side of 3ft. It’s well worth milking these conditions while they last. The arrival of a strengthening westerly flow on Sunday morning will see conditions deteriorating as they swing SW at strength during the afternoon.

Friday
Pretty ugly all-round. SW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ across exposed South Coast beaches, gradually easing. Grading to 1ft+ along the Mid Coast. WIND: Light SSE to SE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday
Pretty good all day. SSW swell. Ranging from 2 – 4ft across the exposed South Coast beaches with size depending on exposure. Around 1ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: NE 10 to 15 knots, tending N during the afternoon.

Sunday
Small and clean early. Old SW swell reinforced by rising WSW swell. Ranging from 2 – 4ft across the exposed South Coast beaches, bumping up to 3 – 4ft+ during the afternoon. Up to 1 – 2ft along the Mid Coast. WIND: WNW 15 to 25 knots, shifting SW 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.

Light NE winds should see clean 3ft conditions across the South Coast throughout Saturday. Photo: CW user Rod Owen.

Light NE winds should see clean 3ft conditions across the South Coast throughout Saturday. Photo: CW user Rod Owen.

Tags: ben , macartney , weekend , surf , forecast , topnews (create Alert from these tags)

blog comments powered by Disqus
More From Weekend Surf Forecast
Weekend Surf Forecast 17 - 19 January, 2020

Weekend Surf Forecast 17 - 19 January, 2020

Get set for the weekend.

16 Jan 2020
Weekend Surf Forecast 20 - 22 December, 2019

Weekend Surf Forecast 20 - 22 December, 2019

Get merry this Christmas.

19 Dec 2019
Weekend Surf Forecast 13 - 15 December, 2019

Weekend Surf Forecast 13 - 15 December, 2019

It ain't Pipeline, but there will be a few waves at your local this weekend.

12 Dec 2019
Recent

Good Times On The Goldy With Brent Dorrington and Crew

There's been a few banks about...

18 Jan 2020
Two Electric Sessions on the Tweed Coast With the Future of Australian Surfing

Two Electric Sessions on the Tweed Coast With the Future of Australian Surfing

4 16 Jan 2020
Sean Doherty: Davey Cathels and the High Country Fire

Sean Doherty: Davey Cathels and the High Country Fire

3 14 Jan 2020
Nick Carroll: "The Only Thing I Could Compare It to Is War"

Nick Carroll: "The Only Thing I Could Compare It to Is War"

15 10 Jan 2020
Nick Carroll: The Holidays That Never Were

Nick Carroll: The Holidays That Never Were

1 9 Jan 2020
Latest News

Sean Doherty: Davey Cathels and the High Country Fire

“It's been a pretty strange start to the year, that’s for sure.”

Nick Carroll: "The Only Thing I Could Compare It to Is War"

A southerly saved Phil Macca’s town. But what now?

Nick Carroll: The Holidays That Never Were

Surf shop owner Kurt Nyholm is part of a community trying to recover from too much all at once

Popular This Week

The WSL Has a New CEO, the Volcom Pipe Pro Gets Upgraded, and Russell Bierke Is a South Coast Tube Star

This Week In Surfing: Ten Things from Surfing & the Internet on the Week That Was January 17, 2020

Mental Hawaii and Indo – the Last 18 Months Through The Lens of Ryan Williams

Four Minutes of Madness, featuring Jack Robbo, John John and more

Go to Top