Weekend Surf Forecast 24 - 26 November 2017
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Forecast issued Thursday, 23 November 2017
Just about everywhere you look, surfing conditions are looking like a whole lot of fun in the sun this weekend. Across southern Queensland and the NSW coast a new round of easterly tradewind swell arrives just in time for Saturday monring; providing a welcome boost to wave heights that should endure across all exposed east facing stretches all weekend. Further south, Victoria experiences similarly salubrious conditions as the exposed beaches light up under small-scale SW groundswell and early offshore N to NE winds. For the most part, conditions across South Australia aren’t looking flash, but further west it’s another story altogether. Sunday marks the arrival of a large, long-period SW groundswell across the Margaret River region; coinciding with early offshore SE winds to produce the best conditions your likely to see around the country over the coming days.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
The official start to summer may still be a week away, but as far as Mother Nature is concerned it’s already game on. This weekend (not to mention the entirety of next week) sees a stable, high pressure dominated pattern featuring warm temperatures, sunny skies, light to moderate N to NE winds and small-scale ENE swell; fluctuating around the 2ft mark for days to come. Friday is the only notable exception, with tiny ESE swell or near flat conditions prevailing all day. By Saturday morning we should see a minor upswing in ENE swell, but latest model guidance is downplaying the size of this event, so even across the most exposed breaks we’re probably not looking at anything bigger than 2 to 3ft all weekend.
Residual ESE swell around 1ft+ exposed open beaches, bumping up marginally during the afternoon. WIND: Early N 5 to 10 knots tending NE 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
New ENE windswell. Sets ranging from 1 to 2ft+ exposed open breaks, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: NNE 10 to 15 knots, tending NE 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Small-scale ENE swell reinforced by a minor rise in NE windswell. Sets ranging from 1 - 2ft+ exposed open beaches, picking up marginally during the afternoon. WIND: Early light N to NW tending NNE 5 to 15 knot during the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
A new round of E tradewind swell arrives right on cue this weekend. Friday morning marks a pivot-point low in wave-energy as residual ESE swell mixes with minor ENE windswell at 1 to 2ft max. By the afternoon we should be looking at some stronger sets pushing into the 2ft plus range – and by Saturday morning we’re back in business. Having said that, this episode won’t be packing the same kind of punch as the most recent round of ESE groundswell. Its origin is a lower-strength, closer range easterly fetch supported by a large, slow moving high centred over New Zealand. Still, this should be strong enough to deliver consistent 2 to 3ft plus surf along the exposed beaches all weekend, with Sunday now looking likes the strongest day of surf before wave height and period drop down a notch early next week. The current pattern of early light SSW winds giving way to moderate SE/ESE breezes continues for the foreseeable future, so get in early for the cleanest conditions.
Rising E tradewind swell. Around 1 - 2ft exposed beaches early, bumping up towards 2 – 3ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light WSW to SSW inshore, tending ESE 10 to 15 knots later.
Consistent E tradewind swell. Ranging from 2 - 4ft exposed beaches, grading to 1 – 3ft inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light offshore land-breezes, tending ESE 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
E tradewind swell holds at a consistent 2 - 3ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller inside the points and bays with size depending on exposure. WIND: Calm to light WSW/SW inshore, tending E (southern Queensland) to ENE (northern NSW) 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
The state’s most exposed stretches of coastline continue to beckon – at least for the next couple of days – and it’s well worth making the most of the favourable conditions before they start to deteriorate on Sunday. The enduring influence of a large, slow moving Tasman high continues to see smaller-scale surf coinciding with early light offshore winds. An overnight drop in WSW groundswell sees still very appealing surf ranging from 2 to 3ft plus under early light offshore winds. The arrival of a reinforcing, mid-period SW swell on Saturday should see similarly good 2 to 3ft conditions under early light offshore/ variable winds. Sunday, however, isn’t looking quite so appealing. An overnight drop in SW swell points to smaller 2ft waves along the exposed beaches – and the arrival of a SW change during the day will rapidly erode any quality on offer, so get in early for the best of it.
WSW groundswell slowly eases. Clean 2 - 3ft+ along the exposed beaches, wrapping at about 2ft along the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light NNE tending SSE/ SE at 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Small mid period SW swell shows under continued light morning winds. Clean 2 - 3ft+ along exposed beaches, wrapping in at about 2ft along the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light NNW to NNE tending E to NE 10 knots, then SE during the afternoon.
Residual SW swell settles in the 2ft+ range along the exposed beaches, grading to 1ft or near flat along the Surf Coast. WIND: Early WNW to NNW 5 to 15 knots, tending SW to SSW 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Even a cursory look at the forecast makes it clear: it’s all about Sunday. A full day of tiny, windy conditions on Friday gives way to a welcome upswing in WSW swell early Saturday; probably opening up some good 3 to 4ft conditions while early SE winds last. However, the onset of a much larger, long-period SW groundswell on Sunday makes it a day well worth planning for. The swell’s origin is a deep polar low now churning its way eastward, far below Indonesia. The leading edge of a large SW groundswell arising from the system begins to show up early on Sunday; possibly coming in a little undersized at first light before kicking throughout the morning. In conjunction with early SE winds, this presents a great window to get amongst some big, clean waves in the 6 to 8ft range across the exposed breaks all day.
Swell bottoms out prior to a late rise in distant WSW groundswell. South West: Clean, 1 to 3ft, rising late. Perth, Mandurah: Clean, 0.5ft. WIND: SE at 15 to 20 knots tending SSW at 20 to 25 knots
New WSW groundswell shows inco sets under a fresh SSE breeze. South West: Semi clean, 3 to 4ft. Perth/Mandurah: Semi clean, 1 to 1.5ft, rising 2ft sets. WIND: SE at 20 to 25 knots tending SSE.
Overlapping pulse in SW groundswell shows larger reinforced sets. South West: Semi clean, 6 to 8ft, plus sets likely at focal magnets. Perth/Mandurah. Semi-clean, 1 to 3ft. WIND: SE at 10 to 20 knots freshening SSE.
It’s shaping up as a very quite weekend of waves this weekend. A downward slide in wave energy from already very low levels is likely to see tiny to near flat conditions prevailing across the more sheltered South Coast and Mid Coast breaks all weekend. That leaves the most exposed stretches of South Australian coast as the only option for something more substantial – and event then that’s only likely to mean small surf not exceeding 1 to 2ft. The good news arrives early next week in the form of a new, powerful SW groundswell; albeit under moderate to strong onshore winds.
Swell slowly fades under light morning winds. South Coast: Semi clean, 1 to 2ft+, largest at magnets. Mid Coast: Clean, 1ft, easing. WIND: Variable at 5 to 10 knots freshening SSW at 10 to 15 knots.
Small background SW swell under light onshore winds. South Coast: Clean, 1 to 2ft, largest at magnets. Mid Coast: Clean, tiny to flat. WIND: SW at 5 to 10 knots becoming SSW at 10 to 15 knots.
Continued small, tiny swell as winds show onshore. South Coast: Bumpy, 1 to 1.5ft, largest at magnets. Mid Coast: Bumpy, tiny to flat. WIND: SSW at 10 to 20 knots.
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