Weekend Surf Forecast 6 - 8 July 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Issued Thursday, 5 July 2018
It’s hard not to view the world through rose-tinted glasses after a few days of clean, offshore winter days and solid easterly swell across much of the NSW coast. Unfortunately the last of this event is expected to drop to pretty low-levels by Friday before fading to tiny or near flat by Saturday. Thankfully, this just provides a breather before the East Coast transforms once more under the influence of a large, complex winter low now setting up below the mainland. Initially Victoria and South Australia will feel the full brunt of its affects this weekend; taking the form of heavy WSW swell and near-gale force westerly winds; thereby lending the focus to semi-sheltered areas like the Surf Coast.
The NSW coast will subsequently benefit from a strong building S groundswell; commencing with shorter-period energy throughout Sunday. This looks directional enough to result in a lot of have-nots across open beaches and for most of the morning only south facing breaks are likely to be the only real ‘haves’. This all may change as the swell picks up into the afternoon, but it looks like it won’t be until Monday that the bulk of swell really kicks in.
Likewise, much of the deepwater SSW energy will sail straight past southern Queensland on Sunday, so it’s well worth making the most of the current round of E swell as it slowly scales down in size throughout Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, the West Coast is about to turn on in a big way. In the wake of successive days featuring large to monstrous, windblown storm-swell, winds are set to finally swing straight offshore on Saturday morning, transforming the chaos into very appealing 4 to 8ft surf for the rest of the weekend.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast.
This week’s scintillating round of short-range ENE swell only marks a brief departure from the standard winter S swell regime. Friday marks final day of reasonably fun-sized NE swell hovering around the 2ft mark, before it fades to slower 1 to 2ft levels by Saturday morning and continues to fade from there. The good news is a steep rise in S swell will follow on Sunday, initially commencing with a strong south-westerly bias that will translate into big variances in surf heights; only amounting to tiny levels across the more sheltered open beaches, while showing with ever-increasing size across southern exposures throughout the day. For now there’s still some uncertainty as to just how dramatic this increase with be, so tune in to Friday’s update for clearer guidance.
Leftover ENE/ NE swell up to a slower 1 to 3ft exposed open breaks early, dwindling into the afternoon. Around 1 to 2ft elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: NNW 10 to 15 knots, shifting west during the afternoon and WSW later.
Residual ENE swell up to a slow 1 to 2ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere and fading into the afternoon. WIND: WNW 10 to 15 knots.
Potential for steep rising, directional S swell. Speculatively 2 to 3ft+ south facing breaks at first light, building to 3 to 4ft+ during the day and possibly bigger later. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early WNW 15 to 25 knots, tending WSW and freshening during the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
This week’s unseasonal burst of easterly swell continues to deliver consistent surf to the region as it gradually subsides throughout Friday and the weekend. Initially conditions will remain far from ideal on Friday as fresh north to north-easterly winds keep a firm lid on surface quality across the majority of open beaches. It won’t be until Saturday morning that a return of lighter west to northwest winds should offer up some quality surf; albeit arriving at ever-diminishing 2 to 3ft levels throughout the day. Still, it’s well worth making the most of the E swell over the next 48 hours. It’s forecast to substantially fade by Sunday morning as a new, directional SSW swell takes its place; most likely marching straight past southern Queensland while only generating notable surf at the most exposed south facing breaks across northern NSW.
E tradewind swell around 3 to 4ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: NW to NNW 5 to 15 knots early, tending N 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon, possibly WNW later.
E tradewind swell around 2 to 3ft exposed QLD breaks, slowly fading during the day. Grading smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: WNW to NW, possibly tending WSW and freshening during the arvo.
Residual E swell around 2ft exposed beaches, fading later. Superseded by rising, directional S swell picking up from 1 to 3ft across northern NSW beaches towards 2 to 4ft during the afternoon. Expect smaller surf in the 1ft+ range along the points and inside the bays. WIND: Early WSW to SW 15 to 25 knots tending SSW 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Surfing Victoria in winter can be serious business – and that is definitely applicable to conditions over the coming days. The onset of a heavy WSW swell-event under strong westerly winds will quickly lend the focus to the Surf Coast and Western Port as the swell builds in over the weekend; probably culminating in fairly unruly 6 to 8ft conditions across the Torquay reefs as winds swing from west to southwest on Sunday. When combined with near gale force wind-strengths and cold winter air temps, conditions won’t exactly be suited to the occasional weekend recreational surfer. Think hoods, booties and big-boards and you’ll do just fine.
Directional WSW swell slowly builds. About 3 to 5ft along the exposed beaches, building to 4 to 6ft during the afternoon. Wrapping at 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs and smaller elsewhere. WIND: WNW to NW 20 to 35 knots.
Larger WSW swell builds in. Ranging from 6 to 8ft+ along the exposed beaches early, rising towards 8 to 12ft later. Wrapping at 4 to 5ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs, picking up to 5 to 8ft later. WIND: WNW 20 to 35 knots early, tending W to WSW during the afternoon with potential for stronger gusts of 40 to 45kts.
Heavy SW groundswell continues under strong westerlies. Windblown 8 to 10ft+ storm-swell along exposed beaches. Wrapping at a solid 6 to 8ft+ across the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: W across the Surf Coast early, otherwise WSW to SW15 to 30 knots.
An impending easterly wind-shift and a still large SSW groundswell holds plenty of promise across the Southwest this weekend. In the wake of a relentless week of untenable, onshore storm-surf, conditions are set to turn about-face by Saturday morning under the influence of burgeoning high pressure system building in across the south of the state and the Great Australian Bight. The high sets up a light ENE airflow responsible for rapidly improving surf; probably ranging anywhere from 4 to 8ft depending on where you look. This sets the trend for Sunday as a longer-period SSW groundswell arriving from 210 degrees fills in to produce a cleaner, larger day of surf. If there’s any downside it’s a stronger northeast tilt in winds that may limit surface quality at some of the more exposed reefs – otherwise it looks like pretty ideal winter conditions.
Easing SW groundswell under moderating southerly winds. South West coast: Messy, 8 to 10ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: Messy, 2 to 3ft+. WIND: SSW 10 to 15 knots, tending lighter SSE during the afternoon.
Mid-period SSW groundswell levels off under favourable ENE winds. South West: Clean 5 to 6ft+ exposed breaks. Perth/Mandurah: Clean 2 to 3ft magnets, settling later. WIND: ENE 10 to 15 knots, tending lighter NE later.
Potential for new, long-period SSW groundswell under light ENE winds. South West: Inconsistent sets to 5 to 8ft at the magnets, grading to 3 to 6ft elsewhere. Perth, Mandurah: Clean 1 to 2ft+. WIND: ENE to NE 10 to 15 knots.
Another challenging winter weekend looms across the state as a heavy upswing in SW swell sets in under gusty westerly winds. Friday morning is looking like the best of an ordinary bunch as an early westerly bias in the developing onshore flow offers up some solid cross-shore options across the South Coast. Otherwise you might be better off finding a cheap flight somewhere east or west, where it really is 6ft and offshore.
Larger SW groundswell slowly eases under strong westerlies. South Coast: Cross-shore 4 to 6ft Waits and Parsons, grading to 3 to 4ft at Middleton.. Mid Coast: Semi clean, 1 to 3ft. WIND: W at 15 to 30 knots, tending WNW during the afternoon.
Longer period SW groundswell blown-out by strengthening south-westerlies. South Coast: Clean, 4 to 6ft+, building to 5 to 8ft at Waits and Parsons. Grading to 3 to 5ft at Middleton.. Mid Coast: Windblown W swell to 2 to 3ft+ WIND: WSW 20 to 35 knots, possibly turning SW during the afternoon.
Large SSW groundswell eases under still strong SW winds. South Coast: Solid 4 to 6ft sets at Waits and Parsons, grading to 3 to 4ft+ at Middleton. Mid Coast: 1 to 3ft WIND: SW at 15 to 30 knots.
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