Weekend Surf Forecast 1 - 2 September, 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Issued Thursday, 26 July 2018
Spring has almost spung people – and that can only be a good thing – given it implies longer daylight hours, warmer temperatures and plenty of surf to boot. The first weekend of September brings all manner of conditions to our pristine shores. Across the NSW coast we see this week’s heavy SSE swell all but disappearing by Saturday – only to be replaced by another robust pulse of S swell on Sunday. Further north across southern Queensland and northern NSW, this new energy isn’t anticipated to show with much size until Monday – and until then the region will have to make do with increasingly tiny leftover SSE swell, mixing with some minor NE windswell.
Down south, someone has forgotten to tell Victoria and South Australia that winter has ended. Both states are set to feel the brunt of another large, wintery SW swell event; probably peaking later on Sunday at heavy 8ft plus levels across exposed stretches under fresh onshore winds. That leaves the West Coast as one of the better places to find yourself as light offshore easterly winds groom solid SW groundswell in the 4 to 6ft realm across Southwest coasts all weekend.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast.
Wednesday and Thursday’s monster SSE swell is set to fade about as quickly as it arrived. By Saturday morning there’s only likely to be much smaller leftover SE swell, mixing in with some slight NE windswell – mostly in the 1 to 2ft range. The good news is the Tasman is set to transform once again overnight. By Sunday morning we should be looking at a new, robust pulse of S swell showing most size in the 3 to 4ft plus range across south facing beaches; albeit under chilly southerly winds getting up to 15 to 20 knots. Still, there’s waves and it looks like there’s plenty more to come early next week.
Leftover SSE/SE groundswell ranges from 2 to 4ft exposed breaks early, fading as short-period NE windswell bumps up to a junky 2ft+ open beaches. WIND: Northerly 10 to 20 knots, tending NW in the late afternoon/ evening.
Mix of fading NE windswell and background SE swell under offshore WSW winds. Up to a slow 1 to 2ft exposed open beaches, fading throughout the day. Scope for a minor rise in S swell during the afternoon. WIND: Early light WNW at 10 to 20 knots, tending WSW to SW and freshening during the afternoon.
New, short-range S swell. Speculatively undersized at around 2 to 3ft+ south facing breaks at dawn, building to 3 to 4ft during the morning and a tad bigger later. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early SW to SSW inshore tending S at 15 to 20 knots, easing and tending SE later.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
It appears the vast bulk of SSE groundswell that lit up most of the NSW coast has largely by-passed southern Queensland coasts – and that will undoubtedly set the trend as this event rapidly scales down again over the next 24 hours. That pretty much leaves far northern NSW coasts as your best option for some leftover SSE swell in the 3 to 5ft range on Friday morning. To add some salt to the wound, winds are set to kick in at strength out of the north on Friday; rendering the majority of exposed Queensland breaks to mush early in the day. That leaves Saturday as your best option for some small, clean refracted NE wind-waves; probably only amounting to 1 to 2ft across the majority of open breaks. Sunday then presents some fun options south of the border as a new round of S swell begins to pick up; probably only amounting to 2 to 3ft or so – but that will be a whole lot more than what southern Queensland has to offer.
Easing SSE groundswell crossed by a developing NE windswell. Clean 3 to 5ft sets northern NSW south facing beaches early, deteriorating and fading to 3 to 4ft during the morning and becoming smaller into the afternoon. Wobbly 2 to 3ft+ sets southern QLD exposed coasts early, deteriorating and fading during the day. WIND: Early WNW to NW 10 to 15 knots, tending N mid to late morning and freshening to 20 to 30 knots in the arvo.
Leftover SSE swell mixing with slight NE windswell. SSE swell up to a slow 1 to 3ft along exposed northern NSW beaches, grading 1 to 2ft southern QLD beaches early and quickly fading during the day. WIND: Early WNW 5 to 15 knots, easing to light and variable before tending light north to north-easterly later.
Mix of background S swells up to 1 to 3ft exposed Northern NSW breaks, bumping up a bit during the afternoon. Grading to 0.5 to 1ft or near-flat exposed QLD coasts. WIND: Early WSW to SW at 10 to 15 knots tending SSE to SE and freshening to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Friday morning is looking like your final opportunity to capitalise on the northerly winds that have been grooming exposed beaches. Initially this should see some good quality 2 to 4ft options at these venues, but as winds swing WNW into the afternoon conditions will deteriorate. Of course, as one door closes, another opens – and that is a poor way of saying that the Surf Coast will briefly turn on early on Saturday as inshore westerlies greet a rising SW swell. Unfortunately winds are forecast to swing SW at strength during Saturday morning – so whatever opportunity there is for clean conditions, it looks like it will be short lived. That leads in a fully day of big, onshore conditions on Sunday as a rising SW groundswell coincides with fresh SSW winds, gradually moderating and turning southerly during the day.
SSW groundswell eases further. Ranging from 3 to 4ft sets along the exposed beaches. Wrapping at 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs and grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early north, NNW at 10 to 20 knots, shifting westerly during the afternoon
Potential for reinforcing SSW groundswell. Ranging from a messy 3 to 5ft early, rising to 4 to 6ft during the day and up to a larger 5 to 6ft+ later. Wrapping at a mostly clean 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs, rising sets later. WIND: Early west, turning WSW to SW 15 to 25 knots during the morning, then S into the afternoon.
Large SSW groundswell under SW winds. Up to a solid and messy 8 to 10ft along the exposed beaches. Wrapping at a semi clean 5 to 8ft along the Surf Coast reefs, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early SSW 10 to 20 knots, tending S and easing in the afternoon.
Well, good riddance to winter huh? The first weekend of spring brings light winds and solid SW swell to the Southwest – and quite frankly its about time. Although there’s some model divergence plaguing the wind-forecast, the most likely scenario sees light ESE winds greeting a solid pulse of SW groundswell throughout Saturday morning; making for still wobbly, but steadily improving wave quality throughout the morning. That should lead in cleaner and slightly smaller conditions on Sunday as light ENE winds greet the tail end of the swell; producing another great morning to hit the exposed breaks before winds swing to the north or northwest during the arvo.
South swell fades, replaced by a mid sized SW groundswell later. South West: Ranging from 3 to 5ft across exposed breaks, bumping up later. Perth/Mandurah: Around 1 to 2ft, rising later. WIND: SSW at 10 to 15 knots, tending SW later. Better NE morning winds across Metro waters.
Solid SW groundswell holds under offshore morning winds. South West coast: Potential for clean 4 to 6ft sets exposed breaks. Perth/ Mandurah: Around 1 to 2ft+. WIND: Light East winds 5 to 15 knots, tending variable to light south during the afternoon.
Reinforced SW swell under continued favourable winds. Southwest coast: Clean 4 to 5ft+ exposed breaks, easing into the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: Up to 1 to 3ft at the magnets. WIND: ENE at 10 to 15 knots, easing into the N during the day before turning west in the afternoon.
The arrival of strong SW change leaves little to the imagination across the region this weekend; leading in fresh onshore conditions blowing out a solid SW swell throughout Saturday. Thankfully, an emerging high pressure presents scope for improving conditions throughout Sunday as light winds greet an even larger pulse of SW groundswell – so it’s well worth planning for some time in the water on Sunday.
SW groundswell mixes with a stormy wind swell on the Mid Coast. Semi clean early 2 to 4ft at Waits and Parsons. Grading to 1 to 3ft at Middleton tending windblown into the morning. Mid Coast: Windblown 1 to 2ft+. WIND: Early NNW at 15 to 25 knots, shifting WSW to SW 20 to 30 knots during the arvo.
Stronger SW groundswell fills in. South Coast: Messy 3 to 5ft+ at Waits and Parsons. Grading 2 to 4ft at Middleton. Mid Coast: Semi clean in areas although only around 2ft. WIND: WSW 10 to 20 knots, tending SW during the day and S later.
Potential for large SSW groundswell building throughout the day. South Coast: Messy 4 to 6ft at Waits and Parsons, rising 6ft+, grading to 3 to 4ft+ at Middleton, rising 5ft+ sets later. Mid Coast: Semi clean in areas although only around 1 to 2ft. WIND: Light and variable E to NE tending SE up to 10 knots later.
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