Weekend Surf Forecast 12 - 14 October 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Issued Thursday, 11 October 2018
There’s plenty of aquatic fun to be had just about everywhere you look this weekend. The Eastern Seaboard is a hive of activity as an easing SSE swell quickly gives way to a rising E to NE swell; offering up great potential for exposed open beaches across the NSW coast into Sunday and early next week. Similarly, southern Queensland is the likely recipient of a chunky round of easterly swell; picking up rapidly throughout Sunday and holding plenty of size early to mid next week; albeit under less-than-ideal easterly quarter winds.
Further south, surf potential along Victorian and South Australian exposed beaches looks wide open as favourable NE winds coincide with accessible levels of SW swell; for the most part ranging anywhere from 2 to 4ft depending on time and place. It’s only Over West that conditions aren’t looking so appealing this weekend, as freshening onshore westerly quarter winds greet a steep rise in short-period SW swell, making for large, unruly conditions both on Saturday and Sunday.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
A highly active short-range swell window sees swell from all directions across the region this weekend – but it looks like the best of this activity will set in over the course of next week. As the current round of SSE swell begins to subside over the weekend we see two distinct swell-trains picking up the slack. The first is a long-range pulse of S groundswell that will be offering up reasonably solid, albeit wind-affected 2 to 4ft sets as it builds in on Saturday arvo and fades again on Sunday. This is, however, overshadowed by a developing easterly windswell that’s set to build to solid levels on Sunday – again under fresh onshore winds.
Easing mid period SSE swell settles under easing onshore winds. Messy 3 to 4ft south facing breaks, settling in the arvo. Grading smaller within sheltered corners. WIND: SE to ESE 10 to 20 knots, easing in the afternoon.
Leftover SE swell reinforced by new S groundswell. Peaky 2 to 3ft+ exposed breaks early, ahead of a gradual push in long S groundswell towards 3 to 4ft across south facing breaks during the afternoon. WIND: ENE at 10 to 20 knots, freshening 20 to 25 knots during the day.
Easing SSE groundswell up to a slower 2 to 3ft south facing breaks, superseded by rising ENE windswell building from a junky 2 to 4ft early towards a windblown 3 to 4ft+ exposed beaches during the day. WIND: Early lighter NNW inshore, tending NNE around 15 to 25 knots, then NE during the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
Our immediate future sees SSE swell persisting as the dominant wave-train across the region; typically favouring northern NSW coasts for size – but there should be enough wrap to produce good 3ft sets at exposed breaks like Duranbah on Friday. From Saturday onwards things begin to change rapidly as a close range easterly fetch develops offshore; generating a sizeable easterly swell for the region from Sunday onwards. It’s only the associated strong easterly flow that’s going to tarnish this event; for the most part blowing out exposed beaches while offering up better cross-onshore options inside the points and bays.
Rising ESE windswell underpinned by mid-period SSE swell under moderate SE winds. Messy 3 to 5ft sets on south facing beaches of northern NSW, grading to 2 to 4ft exposed southern QLD breaks and smaller in the bays and along the points. WIND: SE to ESE 15 to 25 knots.
Mix of rising ESE windswell and easing mid period SSE swell under moderate ESE winds. Unsettled 2 to 4ft sets exposed beaches, building towards 3 to 5ft during the afternoon. Grading to a junky 2 to 3ft along the points and bays, bigger later. WIND: ESE tending E at 15 to 25 knots.
Potential for large, unruly E swell building throughout the day. Stormy 4 to 6ft+ exposed areas, grading to a chunky 3 to 5ft along the points and inside the bays with size depending on exposure, picking up during the arvo. WIND: Easterly 10 to 20 knots inshore early, freshening to 15 to 25 knots.
The state’s exposed beaches beckon this weekend as a favourable N to NE wind-regime coincides with mostly small-scale SW groundswell. This pattern follows the slow eastward movement of a large high pressure system over the Tasman Sea on Friday and the weekend; setting up a stable NNE airflow across the state for days to come. At the same time we see a small SW groundswell building in on Friday and holding good size on Saturday – and it’s probably well worth making the most of before it tapers off to more subdued levels on Sunday.
Fading SW swell reinforced by distant, long period SSW groundswell during the afternoon. Clean 2 to 3ft along the exposed beaches early, rising 3 to 5ft during the early arvo. Grading unsettled 2ft along the Surf Coast reefs, rising 2 to 4ft sets later. WIND: ENE 15 to 20 knots early, easing NE before shifting E to SE at 10 15 knots in the afternoon.
SSW groundswell backs off under continued NE winds. Sets show inconsistent 3 to 4ft along exposed beaches, easing. Wrapping slower 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs, easing. WIND: NNE to NE at 10 to 20 knots.
Smaller left overs in SSW groundswell prior to a minor reinforcing pulse. Slow, clean 1 to 3ft sets on exposed beaches, wrapping in at 1 to 2ft along the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: NNE at 10 to 20 knots, tending to light sea-breezes SE to S 10 knots later.
Following on from a great week of offshore conditions, the onset of a rejuvenated westerly airflow offers little appeal to surfing conditions across the Southwest this weekend. Friday sees moderate WSW to WNW winds hampering a small-scale SW swell – and that will probably look good compared to what’s in store for the weekend. The approach of a vigorous cold front on Saturday sees freshening pre-frontal north-westerlies thoroughly blowing out the Southwest. It won’t be until early Sunday that strong south-westerlies will open up some ok options inside the sheltered areas – and this is likely to be the best of a pretty ordinary bunch over the course of next week.
SW groundswell bottoms out under varied winds. Possibly clean early, 2 to 3ft+ sets across exposed Southwest breaks. Perth/Mandurah: 0.5 to 1ft sets at exposed beaches. WIND: WSW early tending WNW at 10 to 15 knots.
New mid period SW swell and rising WSW windswell under onshore winds. South West: Messy 2 to 4ft sets across exposed breaks, picking up in the arvo. Perth/Mandurah: Messy 1 to 1.5ft, rising messy 2ft sets. WIND: NNW to NW 15 to 25 knots, freshening and tending West later.
Potential for large WSW swell blown out by squally south-westerlies. South West: Choppy 6 to 8ft+ sets across exposed breaks, possibly undersized early. Perth/Mandurah: Up to a junky 2 to 3ft. WIND: Early SW up to 20 to 35 knots, rapidly easing and tending West 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
There’s some fun waves on tap over the next two days as lighter east to north-easterly winds coincide with a small SW groundswell. Friday sees a slow build in SW swell lending the focus to the most exposed areas as it shows peak size during the afternoon. This should see similarly good waves on offer as it gradually subsides throughout Saturday – and it’s well worth making the most of before it fades to very low levels by Sunday.
New SSW groundswell overlaps under improving winds. South Coast: Potential for 2 to 3ft sets at Waits and Parsons, scope for a late push to 3 to 4ft, grading to 2ft or so around Middleton, rising 2 to 3ft later. Mid Coast: WSW swell to 0.5ft, rising 1ft at best. WIND: ENE at around 10 to 15 knots tending NE then into the SE in the afternoon.
SSW groundswell eases under offshore winds. South Coast: Sets ranging from 2 to 4ft Waits and Parsons, easing later. Grading to 1 to 3ft around Middleton, easing. Mid Coast: WSW swell around 0.5 to 1ft at best, easing. WIND: ENE to NE at around 10 to 15 knots, freshening later.
Faded SSW swell down to 1 to 2ft at Waits and Parsons, grading to 1ft or less around Middleton. Mid Coast: Bumpy 0.5ft. WIND: NNE 15 to 25 knots.
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