Weekend Surf Forecast 2 - 4 November 2018

1 Nov 2018 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST

Issued Thursday, 1 November 2018

Firstly, I’d like to apologise in advance to all the big-wave hell-men who reside in Torquay for what’s written here, but it’s gotta be said. Ok, here’s a little rhetorical quiz that may or may not influence your decision making this weekend: Are you predisposed to big, clean waves under fresh offshore winds? Do you have a good sealed wetsuit? Do you have a flexible schedule and some coins in your piggy bank? If you’re furiously nodding yes to all three questions, I highly recommend a strike mission to Victoria’s Surf Coast this weekend. The region will be on the proper pump – and while Bells and Winki will be good or even epic, there will be a wide range of excellent waves to be found north and south of these focal points both on Saturday and Sunday.

In comparison, everywhere else pretty much pales in comparison. Across the NSW coast a minor building trend in NE windswell through Friday and Saturday is superseded by a rise in south-swell on Sunday; albeit under moderate onshore winds. Further north, southern Queensland sees a pretty dire weekend of waves as localised NE windswell is blown to bits by fresh and persistent northerly winds. Over West, it’s only on Saturday that conditions will really turn on as moderate ESE/SE winds combine with a solid pulse of SSW groundswell; lighting up all exposed areas until winds swing to the south at strength in the afternoon.

The bulk of surfing action will be found along Victorian coasts this weekend. Photo: Judy Scanlon.

The bulk of surfing action will be found along Victorian coasts this weekend. Photo: Judy Scanlon.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast.
Rapidly changing conditions offer up a wide variety of surfable conditions over the next few days. Friday sees localised north-easterly windswell gradually picking up in size under favourable, cross-offshore NW winds – probably producing the best surface quality you’ll see for several days. Having said that, Saturday morning also looks similarly good as north-westerlies greet a still fun-sized NE windswell gradually declining throughout the day. However, the arrival of a vigorous front will see a strong and gusty SE wind-shift kicking in during the early afternoon; spelling the end of clean conditions for the rest of the weekend. On the upside, a subsequent rise in south swell will follow at solid 2 to 4ft levels on Sunday morning; albeit under moderate NE winds, tending more NNE during the day. That means south facing breaks will be go-to spots throughout Sunday – unless you’re content with a smaller, wind-blown wave along an open beach.

Friday
NE windswell up to 1 to 2ft+ exposed open beaches early, bumping up towards 2 to 3ft in the afternoon. Mixing with tiny S swell at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early NW 15 to 20 knots, tending NNW and easing in the afternoon.

Saturday
NE windswell ranging from 2 to 3ft along the most exposed open beaches early, easing as SSE windswell picks up to 1 to 2ft+ south facing breaks during the afternoon and possibly bigger into the late arvo/ evening. WIND: Early light WNW, briefly tending South 5 to 15 knots ahead of a SE change 15 to 30 knots during the day, easing and turning ESE later.

Sunday
Potential for solid S groundswell under onshore winds. Inconsistent sets to 3 to 4ft across south facing breaks, easing in the afternoon. Grading to 2 to 4ft elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early ENE to NE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

The arrival of a new S swell on Sunday holds some good potential for south facing breaks as winds tend more northerly during the day. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Aquatic Horizons.

The arrival of a new S swell on Sunday holds some good potential for south facing breaks as winds tend more northerly during the day. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Aquatic Horizons.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
It’s not easy to put a positive spin on what’s looking like a pretty dire surfing situation across southern Queensland coasts this weekend. Think fresh northerly winds driving a slight building trend in localised NE windswell; probably not exceeding a weak 2 to 2ft plus at the more exposed open beaches by Sunday. Only northern NSW is likely to fare a little better – initially owing to its more favourable exposure to the northerly flow, coupled with a wider range of sheltered northern corners - with a minor uptick in southerly swell adding some still small rideable waves into the mix across southern exposures later Sunday arvo.

Friday
Background SSE swell up to a slow 1 to 2ft northern NSW south facing breaks. Mixing with slight NE wind-chop at 1ft or less exposed QLD breaks, bumping up slightly in the arvo. Otherwise near-flat along the points and bays. WIND: Early light WNW to NW 5 to 15 knots, tending NNE 15 to 20 knots.

Saturday
Slight NE wind-waves up to a junky 1ft+ exposed open beaches, otherwise tiny to near-flat elsewhere. WIND: Early NW to NNW 15 to 20 knots, tending N to NNE and freshening later.

Sunday
Potential for slight NE windswell around 1 to 2ft exposed open beaches. Superseded by a minor rise in S swell building towards 2ft across northern NSW south facing breaks during the afternoon/ evening. WIND: Early light WNW/NNW, turning Northerly 15 to 25 knots in the arvo.

There won't be a lot of this sort of joy on offer across the region under a persistent northerly airflow this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by SallyR.

There won't be a lot of this sort of joy on offer across the region under a persistent northerly airflow this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by SallyR.

Victoria
If you have an 8ft gun wrapped in cotton wool, carefully stored away for that special day, then you’d better unpack the thing and wax it up. This weekend marks the arrival of a very large and powerful WSW to SW groundswell arriving under favourable westerly quarter winds; in all likelihood producing two days of good to epic conditions across the Surf Coast. That’s it. Not much else to say except stay safe or enjoy the view from the car park.

Friday
Mid-period SW groundswell combines with rising WSW windswell under westerly winds.
Sets ranging from 2 to 4ft along exposed beaches, picking up to a windblown 3 to 4ft+ late arvo/ evening. Wrapping at 1 to 2ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs, bigger later. WIND: NW to WNW 10 to 15 knots early, shifting West and freshening from 15 to 30 knots later.

Saturday
Large, stormy WSW swell under fresh west to southwest winds. Sets around 6 to 8ft+ early, pushing up to 8 to 10ft along exposed beaches, wrapping at 4 to 8ft on the Surf Coast reefs early, building to 6 to 10ft later. WIND: Initially WNW across the Surf Coast 10 to 20 knots, otherwise Westerly to SW 15 to 25 knots, easing in the arvo.

Sunday
Potential for easing SW swell up to wind-affected 8 to 10ft along the exposed beaches. Sets wrapping at 6 to 8ft+ on the Surf Coast reefs, easing later. WIND: WNW to NW 5 to 15 knots, easing and tending light and variable sea breezes during the afternoon.

Waves like this are a distinct possibility at right time and Victorian place this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by MarkH.

Waves like this are a distinct possibility at right time and Victorian place this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by MarkH.

Western Australia
With the exception of Saturday morning, onshore winds are set to plague conditions for the most part. That means you’ll be wanting to move Heaven and Earth, if need be, to make sure you’re on the spot early on Saturday, as early ESE winds greet a sizeable SSW groundswell, probably generating waves at anywhere from 4 to 8ft depending on where you look.

Friday
Potential for stronger SSW groundswell reaching 4 to 6ft sets across exposed breaks, picking up to 5 to 8ft later. Perth/Mandurah: Clean in the 1 to 3ft range along exposed beaches, smaller later. WIND: Early SW 5 to 15 knots tending lighter South then SSE and freshening in the arvo.

Saturday
Solid SSW groundswell under early offshore winds. South West: Clean 6 to 8ft across exposed breaks early, gradually easing and deteriorating later. Perth/Mandurah: Up to a bumpy 2 to 3ft. WIND: ESE to SE 10 to 20 knots, tending S to SW and freshening later.

Sunday
Potential for solid SW swell under early cross-offshore winds. South West: Clean 4 to 6ft+ sets across exposed breaks, settling towards 3 to 5ft later. Perth/Mandurah: Clean in the 1 to 3ft range along exposed beaches. WIND: WSW 10 to 15 knots, tending SW and freshening to 15 to 25 knots later.

It looks like it will be cracking on Saturday morning, but otherwise onshore all weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

It looks like it will be cracking on Saturday morning, but otherwise onshore all weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

South Australia
Fresh WNW to WSW winds are set to keep a lid on your surfing options throughout Friday and Saturday. That looks like leaving Sunday as your best bet for some clean, powerful waves as lighter north to nor’east land-breezes greet a solid pulse of SSW groundswell. Happy hunting!

Friday
Potential for rebuilding SW groundswell. South Coast: Speculatively 2 to 3ft building to 2 to 4ft at Waits and Parsons. Grading to a junky 2ft around Middleton, bit bigger later. Mid Coast: WSW swell up to 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: WNW 10 to 15 knots, tending SW 15 to 20 knots later.

Saturday
SSW groundswell peaks up to 4 to 6ft+ at Waits and Parsons, wrapping at 3 to 4ft+ around Middleton. Mid Coast: Around 1ft+. WIND: Early SW to WSW 10 to 15 knots, tending SSE and easing later.

Sunday
Large SSW groundswell. South Coast: Sets ranging from 4 to 6ft+ Waits and Parsons, easing later. Grading to 3 to 4ft around Middleton. Mid Coast: WSW swell up to 1 to 2ft. WIND: Early NE 10 to 15 knots, tending to variable sea breezes in the afternoon.


NNE winds forecast for Sunday present all sorts of interesting options across SA. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Angryfish.

NNE winds forecast for Sunday present all sorts of interesting options across SA. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Angryfish.


Tags: Weekend Forecast , Surf Coast , Ben Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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