Weekend Surf Forecast 16 - 18 November 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Mid November delivers no shortage of surf to surfable coastlines this weekend – and while quality may well be lacking across many regions, there will be small to mid-sized waves in spades just about everywhere you look. The Eastern Seaboard benefits from dual swell-trains; commencing with a pre-existing easterly tradewind swell that will be reinforced by a longer-range pulse over the weekend – primarily benefiting southern Queensland and northern NSW coasts. At the same time the NSW coast sees a modest rise in SSE windswell that holds similar 2 to 3ft potential for the region.
Further south, both Victoria and South Australia see fairly static levels of SW swell initially hampered by onshore winds, until they turn east on Sunday; mostly holding size in the 3 to 4ft range along exposed areas, while grading a foot smaller along the Surf Coast. Last but not least, Western Australia also sees a modest building trend in SW swell under early cross-offshore winds on Friday and Saturday, prior to freshening onshore breezes developing on Sunday.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast.
Think small waves and onshore winds this weekend; comprised of a mix of long-range easterly swell and more consistent, shorter-period SSE and SE windswell. Saturday morning looks like producing a short window of clean conditions as lighter south-westerlies precede a strong southerly change during the morning. That’s set to lead-in fairly unappealing conditions into Sunday morning as moderate south-easterlies produce a junky 2 to 3ft E/SE swell-combo, but conditions should improve as winds back off throughout the afternoon.
Short period SSE windswell up to a junky 2 to 3ft south facing beaches, fading to about 2ft+ in the arvo. Mixing with underlying E swell at either side of 2ft elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Southerly 15 to 20 knots, tending SSE to ESE and easing during the afternoon.
Mix of slight SSE windswell and longer range E swell. Around 2ft+ along exposed beaches, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light WSW to SSW 5 to 10 knots early, turning South and freshening to 15 to 25 knots during the morning, tending SE in the afternoon.
Junky onshore SSE/SE windswell underpinned by underlying, long-range E swell. Up to 2 to 3ft exposed open and south facing breaks, grading to more like 2ft elsewhere. WIND: SE 10 to 15 knots, tending ESE and easing in the arvo.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
A steady run of mostly small-scale easterly swell should be enough to keep you in the water this weekend – and from Sunday onwards there’s the added bonus of an additional SSE swell-train adding into the mix. Initially we see another slow 2 to 3ft day of easterly swell on Friday through early Saturday, but as of Saturday arvo we should see a bit of a boost in size as the leading edge of a mid-period E groundswell starts to show. Set waves are likely to be infrequent but there is potential for some larger sets nudging above 3ft as this pulse shows peak size later Saturday and then mixes with new SSE swell throughout Sunday.
E tradewind swell continues to range from 2 to 3ft exposed open beaches, grading smaller in the bays and along the points. WIND: Early light W to NW, tending East to SE 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon, ENE later.
Potential for small, mid period reinforcing E tradewind swell initially up to a slower 2 to 3ft exposed beaches early, picking up to 2 to 3ft+ in the afternoon. WIND: Model divergence. Early light SW to SSW tending SSE to SE 10 to 20 knots.
Slightly larger mid-period E tradewind swell up to 2 to 3ft+ exposed beaches. Combining with rising SSE windswell building from a junky 2 to 3ft+ across northern NSW coasts towards 3 to 4ft during the afternoon. Otherwise grading smaller at 1 to 2ft+ inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light SW/SSW, turning SE 15 to 25 knots.
A predominant onshore airflow will tarnish and otherwise consistent run of small to mid-sized SW swell over the next couple of days. Friday morning should see some reasonable conditions as early light and variable winds precede a shift to the southwest – and that will lead in a full day of moderate to southerly winds on Saturday. That means mostly dubious surface quality - at least until winds swing easterly, or perhaps even northeast on Sunday. While that should open up some better options along the more exposed Victorian beaches, it won’t be doing any favours to conditions across the Surf Coast.
Easing SW groundswell. Around 3 to 5ft along the exposed beaches early, settling during the day. Wrapping at 2 to 4ft along the Surf Coast reefs, smaller elsewhere and easing later. WIND: Early light and variable tending SW 10 to 15 knots, then freshening out of the SSW later.
Mid-period SW swell up to 3 to 4ft along the exposed beaches. Sets wrapping at a slower 1 to 3ft on the Surf Coast reefs, smaller elsewhere and easing later. WIND: Southerly 10 to 15 knots, tending SSE during the afternoon.
Potential for reinforcing SW swell around 3 to 4ft along exposed beaches, picking up a notch during the afternoon. Wrapping at 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs and smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: ENE to NE 5 to 15 knots, tending to ESE sea-breezes during the afternoon.
The current pattern of early lighter cross-shore winds giving way to strengthening onshores is set to continue for a couple of days yet, making for some reasonably good early sessions both on Friday and Saturday mornings. Saturday in particular will be worth your attention as a strong pulse of SSW groundswell fills in – and it’s well worth milking it given winds are set to swing on shore and steadily increase in strength throughout Sunday.
Residual SW swell bottoms out ahead of a rise in new SSW groundswell showing later in the day. South West: Sets ranging from 2 to 3ft+ across exposed breaks, picking up marginally in the afternoon. Perth, Mandurah: Around 1ft+ at exposed beaches. WIND: ESE 10 to 20 knots, tending South and freshening later.
SW groundswell peaks early and settles under early offshore winds. Southwest: Clean 4 to 5ft+ sets across exposed breaks, easing marginally and deteriorating later. Perth/Mandurah: Clean in the 1ft range along exposed beaches, smaller later. WIND: ESE to SE 5 to 15 knots turning SSW/ SW 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Leftover SW swell reinforced by new SSW groundswell under onshore SW winds. South West: Junky 3 to 4ft+ across exposed breaks early, building to 4 to 6ft in the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: Up to 0.5 to 1ft along exposed beaches, picking up to 1 to 2ft later. WIND: Early lighter SW 10 to 15 knots, tending SSW 15 to 25 knots later.
There’s some good clean fun to be had across the more exposed southern coasts this weekend – but you’ll pretty much have to wait for Sunday. Until then, onshore winds will plague wave as small to mid-sized SSW swell is initially blown out by a strong SSW change on Friday, before trending moderate SE on Saturday. That leaves Sunday as a better opportunity for some small, clean waves across the more remote southern coasts.
Small SSW swell slowly eases under light onshore winds. South Coast: Sets around 3 to 4ft at Waits and Parsons, grading to 2 to 3ft at Middleton, easing during the afternoon. Mid Coast: Around 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: Possibly light and variable inshore early, tending SE to 15 knots and southerly later.
SSW swell slowly eases into the afternoon. South Coast: Around 2 to 3ft+ around Waits and Parsons. Grading to a slower 2ft around Middleton. Mid Coast: 0.5ft. WIND: SE 10 to 15 knots, freshening later.
Continued SSW groundswell ranges from 2 to 3ft at Waits and Parsons, wrapping at 2ft around Middleton. Mid Coast: Virtually flat. WIND: NE 10 to 15 knots, tending to light sea-breezes later.
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