Weekend Surf Forecast 30 November - 2 December 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Summer is upon us people. Before you know it, it’s Christmas, New Year and ahhhh, relax, it the holidays. Until then, most of us are still nose to the grindstone and hoping for a bit of aquatic relief over the weekend. Across the Eastern Seaboard, there’s plenty of waves on tap as a vigorous East Coast Low delivers solid SE and ESE swell across the NSW coast on Friday and Saturday, before fading to relatively low levels by Sunday. The same swell-train carries a much stronger southerly bias as it propagates north, resulting in mid to large surf across northern NSW coasts, but only wrapping at pretty modest levels into southern Queensland coasts as it peaks on Friday and early Saturday.
Further south, a week-long flat spell finally breaks across Victorian and South Australian coasts. A gradual building trend in SW and WSW swells opens up a wide variety of good options under favourable winds on Saturday, trending onshore WSW on Sunday. That leaves the West Coast as the typically most energetic region with respect to swell. The Southwest receives a solid dose of SSW groundswell that should nudge the 6 to 8ft range as it peaks later Saturday through early Sunday, opening up plenty of surfable options across the region under a predominant southerly wind-regime.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast.
The intense coastal low responsible for our latest drenching and subsequent rise in windblown SSE swell has a silver – no – let’s call it a bronze lining over the next few days. A slow decline in short-period SE/ ESE swell sees much improved surfing options as local winds settle back to more typical speeds. Friday morning is shaping up as the pick for size and power as SE swell continues to range from 3 to 5ft. While wave energy will be down a couple of notches by Saturday, conditions will be cleaner and better organised; making for a great day to target an exposed beach as the swell progressively settles. Sunday will be looking a while lot more like summer as higher temperatures greet smaller leftovers in the 2ft range under warm northerly winds.
Combined SSE and ESE swells around 3 to 4ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere and easing in the afternoon. WIND: SW to SSW 10 to 15 knots, tending S to SE in the afternoon and ESE later.
SE swell steadily eases. Initially up to 2 to 4ft exposed breaks, settling to 2 to 3ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early WSW to SSW 5 to 10 knots, turning light E, then NE 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Leftover ESE swell. Sets up to a slower 1 to 3ft exposed beaches, fading during the day. WIND: Early light NW to North, tending NNE 10 to 15 knots, then turning West ahead of a late southerly change.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
There’s no shortage of S and SSE swell inbound across the region over the next few days. This will produce the usual variances in wave-energy – particularly as the bulk of swell arrives from a straight southerly direction on Friday. The weekend sees a slight shift in direction to the SSE opening up a more equitable distribution of swell both north and south of the border – but even so you’ll probably need to be on the latter side if you want to get amongst some size and power.
S swell gradually eases under early southwesterly winds. Sets ranging from 4 to 6ft+ exposed northern NSW beaches, grading to anywhere from 3 to 5ft open beaches depending on exposure. Wrapping at 2 to 4ft exposed QLD breaks and down to a smaller 1 to 2ft inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light WSW to SSW, tending SE to Easterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Easing SSE swell ranging from 3 to 4ft across northern NSW south facing beaches, settling to 2 to 3ft+ later. Wrapping at 2 to 3ft exposed southern QLD coasts, grading smaller inside the bays and along the points. WIND: Early light West to SW land-breezes, tending light and variable, then N to NE up to 10 to 15 knots later.
Fading SSE swell up to 2 to 3ft northern NSW exposed coasts, smaller during the afternoon. Wrapping at a slow 2ft or so across exposed QLD breaks and smaller along the points and inside the bays. WIND: Early NW to NNW 10 to 15 knots, tending Northerly 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
A fairly run of the mill, mid-sized SW swell may well bring tears of joy to wave-starved Victorians on Friday morning. In the wake of a rare, extended flat spell, Friday will dawn with beautiful 3 to 4ft waves across exposed breaks under light winds – and it wil continue to gradually build in size as winds turn moderate onshore during the afternoon. If you can’t get to the water until Saturday, then you’ll be pleased to hear conditions are looking even better. A solid run of mid-period WSW swell holds good 3 to 5ft potential across exposed beaches, grading to about half the size along the Surf Coast – and winds look like coming to the party as they swing from NW to NE during the day. A stronger building trend is anticipated under westerly quarter winds throughout Sunday, lending the focus to the Surf Coast as the swell builds – and potentially leading in some good to great conditions on Monday.
SW groundswell around 3 to 4ft along exposed beaches early, building towards 3 to 5ft in the afternoon. Wrapping at a slower 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs, bigger later. WIND: Early light and variable around 5 to 10 knots, tending SW to SSE 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
WSW groundswell ranging from 4 to 5ft along exposed beaches early, settling marginally during the afternoon. Wrapping at 2 to 4ft along the Surf Coast reefs and smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light NW to NNW land-breezes, tending NE during the morning, then variable during the afternoon.
Reinforcing WSW groundswell picks up. Around 3 to 5ft along the exposed beaches early, rising to 4 to 6ft+ during the morning and up to 6 to 8ft in the afternoon. Wrapping at about 2 to 3ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs, building to 3 to 4ft+ during the day and bigger later. WIND: WSW around 15 to 25 knots, tending W to WNW and easing later.
The usual good, bad and ugly surfing options present themselves across the West Coast over the coming days. Some of your best chances for some solid, clean waves will arrive early on Friday as lighter ESE breezes greet a still thumping SSW swell ranging anywhere from 5 to 8ft across exposed Southwest coasts. It is, however, one of the rare windows for good conditions. A new ridge building over the coast on Saturday morning sees moderate SSW winds prevailing from the outset, making for a full day of less-than-ideal contions as SSW swell rebuilds. For now there’s some variance in the modelling for Sunday, with some model runs showing a moderate southerly flow in place early. This may, however, become lighter SE/ SSE on Sunday morning, opening up somewhat better options as a still large SSW groundswell begins to subside.
SSW groundswell gradually eases under early light offshore winds. South West: Scope for semi-clean 5 to 8ft sets across exposed breaks, settling later. Perth/Mandurah: Around 1 to 3ft. WIND: ESE to SE 5 to 15 knots, turning SSW to SW and freshening to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Reinforcing SSW swell picks up under southerly winds. South West: Cross-shore 4 to 6ft+ across exposed breaks, rebuilding towards a windblown 6 to 8ft in the afternoon. Perth, Mandurah: Around 2 to 3ft at exposed beaches. WIND: SSW 15 to 20 knots, tending South and easing later.
Easing SW groundswell settles under southerly winds. Southwest: Wind-affected 5 to 8ft sets across exposed breaks, fading to 4 to 6ft+ in the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: Clean in the 1 to 2 range. WIND: Southerly, SSE 5 to 15 knots, freshening in the afternoon.
Like Victoria, SA will finally benefit from an upswing in SSW swell this weekend – and given it’s all relative – the waves will be looking pretty damn good – even as winds turn onshore on Friday. They will, however, become particularly inviting as winds swing N to NE and the swell picks up on Saturday – and it’s well worth making the most of it before a dreaded WSW airflow sets in on Sunday.
SSW groundswell builds in under early light winds, tending onshore. Sets up to a junky 2 to 3ft+ at Waits and Parsons, wrapping at 1 to 2ft+ into Middleton, picking up into the afternoon. Mid Coast: Flat to 1ft. WIND: Early light and variable to SSW 5 to 10 knots, tending South to SSE 5 to 15 knots in the arvo.
SSW groundswell around 3 to 4ft+ around Waits and Parsons, grading to 2 to 3ft at Middleton. Mid Coast: Sets around 1ft. WIND: Light N to NE 15 to 20 knots, turning SW 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Potential for rising SW swell. South Coast: Around 3 to 5ft+ around Waits and Parsons, picking up to 4 to 6ft in the afternoon. Scope for solid 2 to 4ft sets around Middleton, building to 3 to 4ft+. Mid Coast: Up to 1 to 2ft. WIND: SW, WSW 15 to 25 knots. Easing marginally in the afternoon.
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