Dialling In: Thurs, 24 June 2010.

24 Jun 2010 0

The south-west is the pick of the bunch this weekend. Llight SSE winds greet a rising SW groundswell across the region during Sunday afternoon.

The south-west is the pick of the bunch this weekend. Llight SSE winds greet a rising SW groundswell across the region during Sunday afternoon.

Good from afar but far from good
A thorough scouring of wave models and weather maps reveals no red alerts with respect to swell around the continent over the next few days. It’s pretty safe to say everywhere will have some sort of a wave this weekend; small for the most part and clean at times across the NSW and Queensland coasts. However, a closer inspection reveals a small swell on the wane across the region on Saturday, giving way to a new, short range S windswell on Sunday.

Only Western Australian coasts will see waves of real substance; initially remaining relatively small and onshore on Saturday ahead of a thumping round of SW groundswell on the rise throughout Sunday, building from three to four feet early to a stronger four to six into the afternoon.

The origin is a deep low pressure system traversing the Antarctic coast beneath Kerguelen Island, over 2000 nautical miles south-west of Perth;

BOM
Source; BOM. A Polar low situated 2000 nautical miles off Western Australia provides a solid blast of SW groundswell on Sunday.

The above MSLP depicts a relatively subdued storm track spanning the southern Indian Ocean; suppressed by dominant areas of high pressure occupying the mid latitudes. Hence Sunday’s pulse won’t be overly notable in terms of wave height or wave period; providing a mid to large swell peaking late Sunday/ early Monday;

Virtual Buoy
The Margaret River Virtual Buoy; SW groundswell ramps up across the region during Sunday afternoon and early Monday.

The swell coincides with a lighter southerly flow extending across the south-west of the state, probably tending lighter S/SE as a ridge builds in across the region into the afternoon;

GFS
Source; BOM. A light wind regime greets Sunday's increasing SW groundswell.

click here for the West Australian detailed forecast.

Small SE leftovers across NSW on Saturday
Mother nature is a little out of sync with the weekend; delivering a nice little pulse of SE groundswell on Friday that is set to rapidly taper off throughout Saturday morning. The swell is the by-product of a small low pressure that set up off New Zealand’s west coast on Wednesday;

BOM
Source BOM. A small low hovered just off New Zealand on Wednesday and early Thursday, generating a strong SE fetch across its south-western quadrant.

The low remained slow moving off NZ over the last 36 hours, maintaining a broad area of 20 to 30 knots E/SE winds across the southern Tasman;

BOM
Source ASCAT. The low aimed a strong ESE fetch our way throughout Wednesday, setting up a small pulse of SE swell across the East Coast on Friday..

Clean conditions greet Saturday’s fading SE swell
Unfortunately the best of this swell arrives across the East Coast on Friday at peak periods of 11 to 13 seconds. By Saturday morning expect weaker leftovers, with a drop in both wave height and period probably translating into less consistent two to occasional three foot waves across the most exposed beaches, becoming smaller and less consistent as the day goes on. Early will definitely be the pick as WNW winds precede the arrival of a southerly change early in the afternoon;

Clean conditions greet Saturday’s fading SE swell
Unfortunately the best of this swell arrives across the East Coast on Friday at peak periods of 11 to 13 seconds. By Saturday morning expect weaker leftovers, with a drop in both wave height and period probably translating into less consistent two to occasional three foot waves across the most exposed beaches, becoming smaller and less consistent as the day goes on. Early will definitely be the pick as WNW winds precede the arrival of a southerly change early in the afternoon;

BOM 4 Day
Source: BOM. A cold front moving up the NSW coast on Saturday extends a southerly change along the coast during the afternoon. A minor increase in S windswell follows on Sunday.

New S windswell on the rise throughout Sunday
The change sees new short range S swell in the mix by Sunday; at this stage running at a wind-affected two to four feet across south facing coasts under the brunt of 20 knot southerly winds; hardly ideal but there will be waves to be had none the less.

Click here to check the detailed Sydney to South Coast forecast.

Light to moderate NW to NE winds limit options across south-eastern Queensland
Conditions across the Gold Coast and Sunshine coast are looking below average all weekend. This is in large part due to a light to moderate NE to NW flow developing across the region as a weak high pressure ridge persists about the coast;

Jan Juc ANNA
Source BOM. A weak high pressure ridge hovering over the coast maintains a light to moderate NW to NE flow across the region this weekend.

This relatively unfavourable wind regime greets a still rideable SE swell emanating from the aforementioned low hovering off NZ, sustaining solid surf in the two to three foot range across the most exposed locations, grading smaller inside the points and bays and perhaps a touch bigger across northern NSW south swell magnets.

Easing trend in ESE swell into Sunday
The tail end of this pulse drops out to lower levels on Sunday and it will be a case of the earlier the better while light WSW winds prevail ahead of the southerly change arriving across the region during the morning.

Click here for the detailed Queensland and northern NSW forecast.

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